With Brandon Belt, Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera. After reading El Lefty Malo’s post on the way these three players’ fates are intertw
ined, I started thinking about Cabrera’s upcoming free agency. There’s no doubt that Melky is going to get a very nice payday, and if the Giants seriously want him around, they’d better start talking to his agent soon. The more hits and multi-hit games he keeps piling up, the bigger his deal is going to be.
He’ll be looking for his first big contract, possibly his last, and his agent is going to be arguing that he is an elite hitter; and ask for a contract that is in line with his leading all of baseball in hits over the last two seasons.
His career line of .283/.337/.410 .747 OPS is so out of line with this seasons’ .353/.391/.514 .905 OPS that it’s almost looking at two different players. But after last year’s 201 hits in KC, I think it’ll be easy for his agent to suggest that this is a true indicator of a new level of skill for the 27-year old. That said, my guess is he’ll be looking at a deal in the 5 year, $60 million dollar range. He might take more money for one less year, but that’s probably
not gonna make it any easier for Sabean. At this point, every day that goes by, with him continuing to pile up the hits, after winning the All Star game MVP, it’s becoming obvious that he’s gonna strike it rich.
If the Giants do sign him, that makes it harder for them to deal with the issue of Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. As Malo pointed out, Posey has already played first base in 15% of the Giants games. That means Belt is still being shuffled in and out of the lineup. If he’s ever going to become the player the Giants think he is, that has to end. What to do?
Make Posey a left fielder and move Melky to right.
Make Belt a left fielder and move Melky to right.
Trade Belt and make Posey a first baseman.
None of these is really palatable. If Belt is a real hitter, trading him will be a huge loss. If Melky doesn’t want to move to right, then you are looking at putting an infielder in right, which would be very difficult. It’s a tough spot.
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Cabrera was never in top shape in NY or Atlanta, and it showed. Getting non-tendered by Braves seems to have turned on the light, especially when he had to take a one-year deal in KC. He got himself into shape, had a much-improved season (200+ hits) for crappy team, got traded and is doing even better for good team in pennant race in a lousy hitting environment. Given his age and the fact that he’s doing this for 2nd straight year, pay the man! If Sabean could get him for $60M/5 years, he’d be cheap. Remember, new MLB TV deals will send salaries soaring in a year or so.
BTW: John, would you like Jonathan Sanchez back? Royals just DFA’d him.
The amazement and consternation displayed by Royals, Braves and Yankees fans at Cabrera’s performance this year makes me think that he was something of a disappointment to them when he was their player. Having played for six full seasons at an acceptable though unremarkable level I am not fully convinced that Cabrera has suddenly jumped to a new level of skill. As has been pointed out here and in other places, baseball is a young man’s game; it is unusual to see players (other than left-handed pitchers) take so long to reach their potential. It is not unusual to see a player have a career year. If the Giants want to spend money betting on Cabrera’s having suddenly transformed himself at the age of 27 (he will turn 28 next month) then they will be betting on long odds. Cabrera wants the security of a long term contract, but at the prices John has thrown out (and I think they are spot on) I would think long and hard before committing. That kind of money should be reserved for players who have proven they are consistent, not 28-year olds who may soon return to past form.