That’s the title of Grant’s latest post, over at McCovey’s Chronicles. First, let me say that I am a huge fan of Grant’s work. His site is simply terrific, and his writing is first rate. That said, he’s wrong here. It’s a reasonable position, but it is clearly wrong:
…. When Shane Victorino walked in the ninth inning, the Giants still had a 96.8% chance of winning the game. That’s assuming average players across the board of course – there’s no way to tweak the formula to account for Tim Lincecum or the ridiculous heart of the Phillies order. But even factoring those things in wouldn’t make a big difference. When a team has a three-run lead with one out in the ninth inning, that team wins about 95 times out of 100, whether it’s a tired starting pitcher, an All-Star closer, or a tub of slurry trying to close out the game.
…. when Lincecum got under four straight fastballs and walked a weenie he’d effortlessly dispatched all day, I wasn’t really worried about the game yet. I wanted him out of the game because he’s still a young pitcher. There’s no need to push him in that situation if you think he’s fatigued in any way. You don’t want a tired Tim Lincecum struggling through a 12-pitch at bat to Chase Utley in a game that’s almost impossible to lose.
That’s Grant’s argument. Bochy made the right move, because there wasn’t a wrong move. Protect the lead, protect the pitcher. The chances of losing are so slim, it doesn’t matter what you do.
That’s not correct. In fact, that’s not even relevant.
What matters here is the indecisive, unclear, thoughtless, “everybody does it this way,” stupidity involved in how our manager handled the closing innings of yesterday’s horrible loss.
Up to the bottom of the eighth inning, the Giants had completely outplayed the Phillies in every way. We’d banged their ace around, won with our worst starting pitcher, out-hit them, out-pitched them, out-hustled them…. in every way possible, the Giants had opened up a can of whoop-ass on the two-time, defending National League Champions. How badly had we outplayed them? Glad you asked. At the end of the eighth inning on Wednesday, the Giants and the Phillies had played 26 innings. Here’s what the important stats looked like at that point:
Giants hitters 15 Runs Scored 35 hits 21 SO
Phillies hitters 4 Runs Scored 13 hits 29 SO
Are you looking at that? Three times as many hits, more than three times as any runs scored…. I mean, we were kicking their ass.
So, at the start of the bottom of the eighth inning, if you are the manager of the Giants, you have to ask yourself, how do I handle the end of the game? How do I handle the last three outs for each team? Lincecum is gonna be up second. If somebody gets on, you either pinch hit, or have Lincecum bunt. If you pinch hit, you have already made the choice. If you let him sacrifice, you leave your options open. Seems like an easy choice, once the leadoff man gets on, right? Leave your options open. Right?
Wrong. Let’s take it a step further. The whole reason you’re facing a tough decision is because you want to protect your ace as well as protect the lead. So, what happens after Lincecum sacrifices? What happens if the Giants put together a couple of decent at-bats, and end up adding a run or two? Pitching changes, hits, walks, runs scoring…. these things take time. It is this element of the analysis that is being conveniently forgotten in the rush to defend Bochy for this supposed once in a season type of loss.
If Lincecum and the Giants are successful during that eighth inning, then using Lincecum is a mistake, NO MATTER HOW TIRED HE MAY OR MAY NOT BE. If the question is whether to use a possibly tired young pitcher, then you absolutely have to ask yourself what happens if you are successful, and what happens if you are not. If you use a possibly tired Lincecum and nobody gets on, and the Giants don’t score, you’ve wasted an out in a critical late inning. If you use him, and the Giants do score, it’s gonna take some time, and you’re not gonna be able to send him out for the ninth anyway.
Why bring Lincecum out for the ninth if you’re not gonna let him go for at least a run allowed? Four pitch walk? Whatever. Who cares. These are questions you ask after you lose. Why have Wilson start the inning from the stretch? WHO CARES!?!
This series was shaping up to be a season starter, an inspirational, team-rallying, “WE JUST BEAT THE LIVING SHIT OUT OF THE TWO-TIME DEFENDING NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPS!!!” kind of series. And our manager sleepwalked through “the book,” and did what he was supposed to do, *yawn* just like all baseball lifers are supposed to do.
That was his mistake. That’s why he was wrong to handle it the way he did. He acted like it was just any old win, “Sure, Lincecum could move into the front-runner’s spot for the Cy Young Award again,” “Sure we could sweep the best team in the NL two years running, but remember, it’s a long season,” blah blah blah.
WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.
After four seasons of worthless, third and fourth place, worst offense in the league, almost no reason to care at all baseball, this team –and it’s fans, by the way– have been waiting for a season-defining moment, dreaming for a chance to show the league that they don’t just have enough pitching, that they’re coming at you game after game, with everything they have, all season long. You know, like the fucking gamers we’re endlessly told the Giants are.
Instead, their manager handled this game like he handles every game. Like he was in a coma. No urgency, no imagination, no cutting edge approach, no nothing. Because he’s asleep at the wheel, just like the GM, just like the owners. The Giants win in spite of the leadership, or lack, thereof, demonstrated by these men. And fans are subjected to more excuses, lies, and bullshit.
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Bengie Molina is in the 4-hole tonight. Read that again. Slow. Bengie-Molina-is-in-the-4-hole.
Game 22. Bochy wormed Molina back into the clean up spot. This after last season when Sabean unloaded the fat ass. “That ship has sailed.” Batting clean-up. The worst hitting qualifying player in the league last year is batting cleanup after 3 years of the “post-Bonds re-build”.
I do not what is worse.
The feckless fools letting Bochy and Sabean run amuck with their multi-million dollar investment or the stooges in the media and blogosphere who constantly invent reasons to defend them.
I am just hoping someday soon, these fucking assholes will be gone.
its like it was a setup to get him back there
of course, he stinks in that spot
and someone needs to explain to me why nate has gotta bat in the 8 hole?
oh….and rentawreck got injured swinging the bat….surprised? nope
and as long as uribe is swinging a hot bat, i do not want freddy anywhere near the field
btw, did you see how fast nate got to the ball hit to triples alley?
I said it before and I’ll say it again. On this team, on this team you have to be a closer who can get the job done.
You want to take the ball from Lincecum? You had better be able to get the job done. You want to take the ball on this fucking anemic hitting team, you had better be DEATH to the other team.
Fucking Wilson, he makes it too interesting too often. Four and a half million dollars and he doesn’t have the attitude. I want to see that fucker scary. I don’t ever want to see him playing video games or being cute. Screw that.
Sure, it’s early, and it’s Bochy, but Wilson has to get his shit together and be what he has to be at the end of this fucking great string of pitchers. No room for fuck ups or jokers. It’s a long season and he has to get it.
With a three run cushion.
Shooter wouldn’t have done that. And he wouldn’t have had a f’n TV show.
Bullsh*t.
A closer has to close. Get your shit together.
fuck me for quoting the box score.
Did he blow the save? Did he not come in with one out and blow the save?
And this makes the ridiculous lifting of Lincecum even more ridiculous.
This is what Bochy, and all the squeaky apologists do not understand. This is what Sabean does not understand. This why a complete pitching turd like Nelson Figueroa got an opportunity to be standing on the mound when the Giants made their last feeble out in the eleventh. Nelson Figueroa, with a career Won-Loss of 14-29 standing on the pimple getting high-fives.
Bochy is like the little bitch-girl idiotrainman, a bureaucrat cut in the mold of the Vichy-french, unaware of the humiliation and mortification they bring to the organization they so profess to care about. Disgusting twits, they are.
How does Brian Wilson not get more blame for melting down? Without excusing Bochy’s ass hattery for a minute, I would like to ask how Wilson doesn’t get more heat for blowing a three run lead.
When he came into the game I was reasonably happy thinking that he would be able to get two outs without giving up more than one run. Instead, in 25 pitches, he gave up two walks and a double. Three runs score and the rest is history.
Nobody, I’m sure, has forgotten the many times Wilson has made games “interesting” by failing to slam the door convincingly, quickly, decisively. On a world class pitching staff he is the least intimidating closer I have ever seen.
We have seen his stupid television show. We have seen enough of him to know that he needs to adjust his attitude and demeanor. He has a critical role to play on this pitching centered team. Blowing that save was unacceptable.
The other team did not fear him. They were happy to see Lincecum out of the game. Bringing the closer into the game should be a lights out situation, not a reason for celebration and hope for the opposing team. I’m not saying that following Lincecum is easy, but if you are the closer on this team you had better be better than the starter for those two or three outs. No excuses.
Personally I don’t want to see him in another commercial, TV spot, interview, or highlight unless it is a clip from a game showing a batter facing him falling on his ass swinging at an unhittable pitch. I want to see him look the part of a closer, have the attitude of a closer on this insanely talented staff, and I want him to scare the other team.
It was a fluke lucky double and he had struck out Werth two pitches earlier but just didn’t get the call. It was not even all that close to being a ball.
he gave up a single and a walk before the seeing eye double…not 2 bbs
And the walk was one of the intentional unintentional variety as he was willing to let Howard chase out of the zone if he wanted to but otherwise wanted to go after the next hitter Werth to get the final out. Further the single was by Utley who is the Phillies best hitter by far.
here is the thing
had bochy made one bad decision at the end of the game, it could all be chalked up to fate or luck…not that he just sucks at being an on field manager
but he didnt just make one…he made 3 or 4 (depending on whether you think that timmy shoulda been ph’d for in the 8th)
what are the other 2?
the double switch with velez, not bowker and then not phing for velez in the 11th with bowker
it was a fuckin comedy of errors…and it happens way to often to be considered a fluke
not only did he waste a brilliant outing by timmy….but a brilliant day at the plate for nate
Bingo
There are just certain times, bullshit Fangraphs just does not apply. And this is one of them. Lincecum is the best shutdown late inning guy in the game. Fangraphs, nor any other fucking stat can articulate this:
Three years of the overwrought, hypersensitive, dementia-ridden, language-challenged Felipe Alou now followed by the most useless, boring, listless stupid back-up catcher turned MLB bureacrat loser-fuck Bruce Bochy.
I remember back in the early 80s, the HOF player and Hall of Fools Manager, Frank Robinson went out to remove Jim Barr from a game. Now Jim Barr except for a couple of seasons with Angels, was a career long Giants, veteran, a proud guy, a favorite of fans and teammates alike, but going on the downside of his career at the time. I don’t remember the exact situation but Robinson was an arrogant, impatient, pushy, kind of manager who wasn’t half as good at managing players as he was at playing the game and made no secret about how much superior he was than anybody else in the Giants clubhouse, so he wasn’t real sensitive about stepping on Barr. But this one day, was too much, he went out to jerk Barr for no apparent reason other than to show Barr who was what. Barr just flipped the ball AT him, not to him…. Robby grabs Barr’s arm as he walks by, spins him around and starts to get in Barr’s face.
Bad idea as Barr could have killed him and was half ready to at that moment. A couple of guys got in between them, but the damage was done. The poison was to last until Roger Craig took over at the end of the 85 season. Even Danny Ozark, and later Jim Davenport couldn’t erase a lot of the ill will that permeated that clubhouse after that incident.
I’m not saying that what happened yesterday is near as bad as that, but it is damn fucking close. Lincecum had every right in the world to be pissed. He is the best damn closer on the team, and he fucking embarrassed the kid in front of his teammates. The only way that kid comes out of that game under those circumstances is if he hurt himself. And so far, nothing to that effect has been said.
Just one more in a never-ending series of wasted squandered opportunites not to mention pissing off your ace of aces for no fucking reason at all after he completely dominated the Phillies who have given him a lot of hard luck since he got here, including his first start. Bochy is
To continue and goddamnit John, we need to do something about having a preview capacity. My fucking rants are half unintelligible enough without all the syntax and grammer shit gettting thrown in too:
“….Bochy is pretty close to as bad a manager as the Giants have had…about a step in front of Alou and half a step in back of Joe Altobelli. But Bochy and Alou have to be two of the most unpleasant piles of managerial manure in some years.”
Get the fuck out you shit disturbed cunt. You contribute nothing here. Nobody here in the last several years wants to read the nitpicking irrelevant dicksucking twatscribbling you write twisting everything this fucked up organization does. If this was Paris in 1944 you fucking bitch, you would have had your fucking ass dragged out of a Nazi fucking brothel, and had you head shaved like all the rest of the collaborating whores.
Why don’t you go back and suck some more on mainstream scrotum, you nutless pile of camel shit .
are you two married?
dood:
if this guy were dogshit, and I stepped on him, i wouldn’t bother scraping my shoes off. I would just give the shoes to Bochy and tell him its not really dogshit, but something he left on the pitching mound last game and thought it should be returned it to its rightful owner.
It was the right move not because everybody does it but because it gave the Giants the best chance to win. Timmy’s velocity had already started to decline in the 7th and stayed down in the 8th and 9th. A healthy rested Wilson is a better pitcher then a fatiqued Lincecum. The fact that it did not work out doesn’t mean it was the wrong move. It was the move that at that time gave us the best chance to win.
In my view Bochy’s mistake was earlier. he had a chance to put the hammer down and add more runs in the 8th by pinch hitting for Timmy and he passed foolishly valuing giving Linceucm a shot at a complete game more then improving his chances to make sure this likely victory does not slip away. Since Bruce knew (as he stated in his answers to the media) that Timmy was already showing signs of fatigue he should of never planned to give Timmy a shot at the 9th to chase a complete game with the idea that he would pull him out at the first sign of trouble. To give the Giants the best shot at closing out the victory Wilson should of started the 9th fresh without a base runner and facing the bottom of the Phillies order. This is what would have given the Giants the best chance to win. Bruce’s mistake was giving to much value to giving Timmy a shot at a compete game and too little value to increasing the odds of avoiding a Phillie comeback.
Get the fuck out you shit disturbed cunt. You contribute nothing here. Nobody here in the last several years wants to read the nitpicking irrelevant dicksucking twatscribbling you write twisting everything this fucked up organization does. If this was Paris in 1944 you fucking bitch, you would have had your fucking ass dragged out of a Nazi fucking brothel, and had you head shaved like all the rest of the collaborating whores.
Why don’t you go back and suck some more on mainstream scrotum, you nutless pile of camel shit .
where is he wrong?
bochy did say that he and rags knew timmy was tiring
therefore, timmy shouldnt have started the ninth
its simple
may be by the book…but its simple
you are bringing in your fresh closer…no one on and the bottom of the lineup
its over…we kicked their asses
timmy leaves a hero…wilson gets his 5th save…bochy doesnt get ripped in the press
the prob with bochy is that he second guessed himself
that kind of manager doesnt win pennants (unless the rest of the division sux ass)
More Bullshit.
Damnit Joe; you’ve been around long enough to know that Bochy will always, ALWAYS avoid admitting anything even close to making a mistake. He, like Sabean always has a fucking excuse for everything that blows up in his face…lord knows the two of them have had enough practice.
He was at 105 or so pitches after an eight-pitch eighth inning. He had ample rest during the B8 plus the Bud Selig mandated 2:05 commercial break between innings. He threw 120 pitches the start before. He does this routinely. This is what good pitchers with great mechanics and a great natural throwing motion do. All The Time.
If he was tired, than Wilson was on the verge of exhaustion when he came in. Funny, how fat-ass Molina can squat for nine innings and practically need a walker to get back to the dugout afterwards not being able to block pitches in the dirt as a result, and Bochy and Sabean call him a gamer; they don’t lift him for Whitesides, do they? Nobody ever questions that, but because the best pitcher in the game lost his groove for a couple of pitches just before he was about to close out a groundbreaking sweep of the NL Champs, Lincecum must be “tired”. Please.
Lincecum got Dobbs on 4 pitches to lead off the 9th, including a swing-through 2nd strike. Tired? Really? After 110 pitches. That’s what caused him to walk Victorino? And the tooth fucking fairy is gonna leave a hundred dollar bill under your pillow tonight too.
The walk to Victorino, big fucking deal. Guys come out of their rhythm all the time. The great ones get it back fast, all the time. That’s part of pitching and what separates the Brett Tomko’s from the Tim Lincecum’s of the world. Great pitchers like Lincecum are capable of getting their “groove” back very quickly; usually within one batter and in Lincecum’s case, sometimes within a single at bat. Especially at a potential turning point. A potential “statement” point” as John themes out so well above.
Lincecum is his own best closer, like Gooden, Marichal, Ryan, Johnson and all the rest of the best of the best. Like I wrote in a previous post, the only excuse for lifting him was if he had been injured and nobody has claimed that yet.
Lincecum has been pulled before. He’s never shown the peeve factor like he did Wednesday…and rightly so. He knows when he is cooked and when he isn’t. That’s why Righetti “leaves him alone”. Because Lincecum knows Lincecum better than anybody; especially the block-headed oafish dolt, Bochy.
So it wasn’t that Lincecum was tired. No. This was simply another case of Bochy demonstrating why he has a career losing record as a manager. And when managers make moves like that it just isn’t about one game, or a point of contention between Lincecum and Bochy. Bochy essentially pulled an Alexander Haig “I’m In Charge Here” stunt. That’s the kind of shit that started Giants pitchers looking over their shoulder when Alou was here. Bochy’s ass puckered like the bureaucrat that he is, saw Grady Little stamped all over his sorry ass in an April game and took the bureaucrats way out, by bringing in Wilson.
So Bochy ended up pulling his best closer and putting in his second best closer because he is a bureaucrat and couldn’t think his way past a little league rulebook. Bochy could have just fucking owned it, copped to making a mistake, and being done with it. But no. Lets compound it, make some bullshit story up for the idiots in media to pass along to the lemmings to swallow, and add one more incident to the failure of the never ending series of missed opportunities that the Giants have become notorious for under Sabean-Alou-Bochy.
This isn’t about second-guessing. This is about pointing out the never-ending series of blown opportunities and the endless parade of wasted moments under Sabean and the current Giants regime, and their continued twisting interpretation of events fed to stupid lazy media and those that suck up to them.
you are missing what i am saying
if bochy felt that timmy was tiring and his arm position was bad and he was leaving pitches up…then timmy shoulda been pulled after the 8th
if he was gonna let him go out in the 9th, then he shouldnt have been pulled after the walk
that is all i am saying
We’re saying the same thing except you’re nicer about it. I call bullshit on Bochy because the “tired excuse” was that, a bullshit excuse. It was as John says, an great example of his fucking ineptitude:
And not only is he inept, he’s full of shit after-the-fact. And the fuckwad media and idiot lemmings make excuses for the idiot bullshitting civil service wannabe.
Well put!!!