Joe Sheehan, as usual, says it better than I do:
…. I keep coming back to the trend line of the last few offseasons. The industry is getting smarter, valuing things that matter—expected on-field performance, applied skills, proper evaluation—over a knee-jerk preference for experience. Teams are coming around to the idea, first expressed by Bill James in the 1980s, that talent in baseball is not normally distributed, that for every great player there are multiple above-average ones, and for every above-average one many average ones. There’s no reason to pay extra money for average performance, and the vast majority of players are at that level or below.
The majority of baseball players, even major leaguers, are fungible. If you pay $4 million each for three players who will produce $2 million worth of value, you’ve wasted six million that could be better spent on high-impact players. The key mistake that continues to be made—and we’ve seen it with Kendall and the Royals, Ivan Rodriguez and the Nationals, Brandon Lyon and the Astros—is money wasted in dribs and drabs on players who are fungible by teams that have no reason to chase wins.
Or, as in the case of the Giants, you pay $9 or $10 million each for three or four players who will produce $2 million worth of value, in which case; you are mired in the bottom of the standings, and your franchise is completely hamstrung in it’s efforts to acquire true top-tier talent. To make matters worse, Giants fans get to watch a team run by a man who thinks this kind of worthless babbling matters in the day to day operations of running a baseball team:
DL: Earlier today, Peter Gammons told me that you do a good job of handling a bullpen. Why do you think he feels that way?
BB: Well, I’m fortunate that I have a good bullpen, and I’ll say this: A good bullpen makes a manager look a lot smarter, because when you’re making moves and taking pitchers out, if they don’t get the job done, then it looks like it was a horrible move. But if they do, then they make you look good. To have [Brian] Wilson as my closer, and to have Jeremy Affeldt and Bobby Howry, [Brandon] Medders—those guys did a great job. My job is to manage the bullpen, and not just for a game, but through the season. So if people believe that, great, because it’s an important part of the game. But it still always comes down to the personnel getting it done for you.
Good job of handling the pen? Really? This is a manager who thinks its perfectly OK to use four relievers to get two outs in a four run game. Sure, his moves looked good this season, his pitchers were lights out. But he walked out to that mound as often as anyone in baseball, often chasing the tiniest percentage; and more often than not, taking out a pitcher who was cruising along. Bcohy’s at least honest in his answer, it’s all on the players to make him look good.
DL: What the Giants need more than anything is a couple of players at the top of the batting order who can get on base. True or false?
BB: Yeah, I’d say true. You know, our leadoff hitter, [Eugenio] Velez, there’s no question we’d like to have a little higher on-base percentage between him and [Andres] Torres. That’s an area that we’re looking at.
DL: Can a team win in today’s game without power?
BB: Yeah, it’s been done, and I think today they can, although they are going to have to throw the ball awfully well, and they’re going to have to catch the ball, and they’re going to have to play the game of baseball. What I mean by that is they have to execute sound, fundamental baseball.
Um, no, it hasn’t been done. Not in today’s game, not for a very long time. There have been but a handful of teams in baseball history that have won a championship without an offense in –at least– the top third of the league power production. A handful. Forget about the 1985 Cardinals. The 1985 Cardinals were second to last in home runs (just 87), but they led the league in triples, with 59, were fourth in doubles (245), and were 6th in slugging percentage, just 11 points behind the league leaders. Oh, and they led the league in runs scored, by the way.
You have to go all the way back to the 1965 Dodgers to find a team that won a title with an offense as bad as the Giants. Just to get to the Serious, Koufax and Drysdale threw 640 innings between them, with 15 combined shutouts and just shy of 600 combined strikeouts (Koufax had 382!). And then it took them seven games to win that Series. They lost the first two games to the Twins, but finished the Series off with Koufax throwing two complete game shutouts in games 5 and 7.
In other words, even with a shutout by Claude Osteen, it took their best pitcher throwing 18 shutout innings in three days (after a season in which he had already thrown 320 innings) to win a single series in seven games. How many more pitches do you think Koufax had left in him after that? Because back then, all a team needed to do was win one series. The ‘65 Dodgers were lucky to beat the Twins at all, coming back from an 0-2 deficit. You think Lincecum can do that three series in a row? You think he can do it once?
In today’s game, a last place offense would never be able to accumulate the 11 wins (most likely 12 starting next year) needed to grab a title. There’s too much pressure on the pitching staff, against too good a level of competition. This team needs power, it needs guys on base.
It needs to play Posey, at the least. It really does need Holliday, even if the cost does seem prohibitive. I mean, how can you justify paying Randy Winn $10 million per these last four seasons, and then balk at paying a hitter like Holliday $16 per? It doesn’t make sense, but then again, trading one of the top pitchers in your minor league system for 115 at bats from a career backup doesn’t make too much sense either.
18 Backtalkers
The most disturbing part of that interview with Bochy, for me at least, was when he said, “[Sabean] has an office right next to mine, downstairs near the dugout, so we discuss the club on a constant basis, including the lineups.”
The idea of Brian Sabean being involved to that degree with the day to day managing of the team, that he and Bochy talk on a ‘constant basis, including the lineups’ makes me feel slightly ill. It supports my theory that Sabean has been acquiring yes-men to fill key positions, allowing him to have a disproportionate say in how the team is run. Without any experience as a manager at any level, Sabean has arranged to become the de facto manager of a major league baseball team.
I actually like the concept of that. A GM SHOULD be involved in the lineup construction – the exact same evaluation skills that make a good GM are used in creating a lineup and recognizing which players should play where, how often, and hit in what order (though batting order is not all that important). However, that quote makes me sick, too. It confirms what I believe – that Sabean legitimately has no clue that someone like Velez is a terrible hitter. Bochy’s terrible lineups should have had Sabean screaming in Bochy’s face, threatening to fire him, and instead we find out they discuss it often, and apparently that didn’t do anything to change the lineupes. I can only assume this is because Sabean approved of them.
A good GM would never let Bochy do the things he does that hurt the team. I actually agree with Gammons that Bochy used our bullpen effectively, it’s not like he was Alou switching pitchers out, and he did actually do a good job of making sure our best bullpen guys (mostly Affeldt and Wilson) were in the game when we really needed it, as opposed to saving Wilson for generic save situations. In that regard, I don’t mind Bochy – what I minded at the things like his lineup construction, which is exactly what a good GM would not let him do. Unfortunately, this indicates to me (what I already knew) that Brian Sabean is not a good GM.
Well he yelled at an umpire from behind the screen once at his kids little league game. Just like Larry King. So he has that goin’ for him. Which is nice.
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doesnt this chat prove again that gammons knows shit about baseball?
bochy handles a pen well???? in whos fuckin universe?
Scott Boras is asking too much for Holliday.
$16 million per year for 8 years with an opt-out clause and a full no-trade agreement does seem a little prohibitive. That price would force the Giants to crack the $100 million payroll level wide open, when they’ve already said their target was the low nineties. While I find the prospect appealing, have in fact advocated the Giants hiking their payroll to the neighborhood of $130 million, I don’t think they’re going to make that deal.
Holliday is going to turn 30 before the pitchers and catchers report to camp. An 8 year deal would be risky, to say the least. His best season was in 2007 and he is not getting any younger. If the Giants could up the price for a shorter contract it would be safer for the team, but Boras is going for all the chips, and he is asking too much for Holliday. It will be interesting to see who, if anybody, will make that deal. I wouldn’t.
Yeah, I read the Holliday report. It sounds insane.
I think he’s gonna end up with a six-year deal for something in the range of $100 million, with an opt-out clause at the three year mark.
although they are going to have to throw the ball awfully well, and they’re going to have to catch the ball, and they’re going to have to play the game of baseball. What I mean by that is they have to execute sound, fundamental baseball.
Baseball is a simple game. You hit the ball, you throw the ball, you catch the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Sometimes, it rains.
As long as we are chasing Brian Sabean’s mental butterflies I offer this observation to add to your killing jar: Sabean is scared of dealing with Scott Boras. And with good reason. Sabean was made the laughing stock of major league GMs by Boras when he signed Zito and Sabean hasn’t signed one of Boras’ clients since.
I think this fits in with John’s analysis of Sabean:
“[Sabean] looks at something a player has done, even if it’s only once, and he believes that that is what the player can do, or actually is.” In Sabean’s world view, Scott Boras is the guy that put the biggest blot on his professional record, and he is the guy who not only can, but will, do it again if given the chance.
Recently Sabean has taken some public verbal pot shots at Boras, which I think have a decidedly petulant tone.
and
It doesn’t sound much to me like a guy who is getting ready to sit down at the bargaining table. So if you are looking at Giants free agents prospects I’d cross Scott Boras’ clients off of your Christmas list. Sabean has.
while you all were sleeping….yankees signed nick johnson
thank god
and sabean is the king of idiot gms…but the seattle gm is really trying to suplant him
heard the guy talking about the 3 way deal that brought them lee….he really thinks lee is gonna love playing in seattle so much that they will get a home town discount when he goes fa at the end of the season….and not only that, but lee will draw other fa like flies….never mind he gave up the farm for the deal, and the phillies are gonna look real good with halliday there for at least the next 3 years
I saw that the yanks had landed Johnson. I know he’s a bit old and slow, but jeez, the yanks got him for $5.5 million, one year. That’s a hell of a deal. I wouldn’t bitch too much about that if the Giants had landed him for that much.
Anyway, who’s left? Holliday and Bay and not much else. So, we need our exalted GM to either make a trade, or jump off a bridge.
Johnny Damon may be cut loose, although the Yankees would like to keep him. He is a Boras client, so he will be overpriced in addition to being the wrong guy for the Giants. The Red Sox are signing Lackey to a large long term contract so they are probably out of the running for Holliday, who is being hotly pursued by the Orioles (reported 8 years for $16M per) and the Cardinals where he will probably wind up. Jason Bay has said he doesn’t want to play in San Francisco and is being targeted by the Angles and the Mets, who have more money than the Giants. Dan Uggla’s a second baseman, and the Giants have got one of those already, but I wouldn’t put it past Sabean to try Sanchez out at third. There’s a rumor that the Giants may be interested in [White Sox cast off] Scott Podsednik (huh?) who is old and mediocre enough to draw Sabean’s attention. There’s also speculation that Sue Burns’ death is wreaking legal havoc with the Giants’ financial situation.
The Giants have said they want to hold payroll to the low $90 millions, and with arbitration still ahead they are making no moves other than letting Molina, Penny and Garko walk. While almost any acquisition would improve their abysmal hitting they are looking at a truly crappy free agent field with no budget and a strategy of wait and see. Until the arbitration is completed I don’t think the Giants will do anything at all. Is Whiteside still available? He’s looking pretty good just about now.
I disagree a little here. Sure it’s the players that will have an impact, but the managers make decisions and should make the decisions that have the smallest percentage of an impact on the game. As Al Pacino said in a terrific quote of an otherwise average movie “cause that’s gonna make the f—– difference between winning and losing.” Four run games get blown every year and more than one run games these can be blown by managers who don’t stay on their players and let their guards down.
Later Bro
Laughing all through the interview with this poor guy. I mean, you really have to give him credit for trying at least. But holy shit. For someone whose native language is English, he is about as inarticulate a clod as I’ve ever heard. He’s so bad, I wonder if he’s just putting us all on. Nobody that age, in the position he has been in for as long as he has, can be that much of a complete nincompoop.
If it wasn’t for MLB, I don’t think he could support himself. He would probably be sent back for remedial training in pizza delivery etiquette. But you have to ask yourself, other than a couple of pitchers and Sandoval, there isn’t a whole lot for somebody like a LaRussa, Torre, Sciosia, Madden, Francona, or Former A’s Bench Coach and first year manager in Seattle, Don Wakamatsu, to work with.
I mean really. Who is going to do anything with an offensive juggernaut like the Giants. At least, after 5 years of stinking up things offensively and with some blue chip power hitters and a couple of high on base percentage guys becoming available, Brian Sabean has this new improved lineup.
I’ve listed a typical starting line-up from last year followed by the new improved player that Sabean has penciled in to upgrade the position.
2000
c. Molina upgrade: —————————none
1b Ishikawa/Garko upgrade:—————-none
2b Sanchez: upgrade————————-none
3b Sandoval: actual major league player—do not disturb
ss Renteria:upgrade————————–none
lf Velez: upgrade:—————————-none
cf Rowand:upgrade—————————none
rf Winn: upgrade——————————none
Its good to see Sabean finally see the light after 6 years away from the playoffs with little to zero offense. Its good to see him bring along all those blue chip free agents, latin american kiddies who shoot people in the face, and top flight position player draft choice standouts like Todd Linden, Lance Niekro, Dan Ortmeir, Tony Torcato, Kevin Frandsen, Damon Minor. Just awesome.
But at least they didn’t waste any money on Penny.
+mia,
had last season been a true rebuilding season, we may have seen some of the younger kids come into their own
wouldve been nice to really discover nate’s and travis’ ceilings
and i wish people wouldnt be so hard on frandsen
but think about how you would feel (and perform) if you had blown out your achilles after you had made the squad (and your manager already knew you were having foot probs and shouldve rested you the rest of st) worked your way back to play, played fairly well at the end of the season…only to be shipped back to fresno for the 09 season
i dont think kfran will be with the org to start 2010, unless sabean wishes to make a point by punishing the kid and keeping him in fresno
he either gets outrighted or is part of some package
and im sorry….anything is an upgrade to franchez
oh, and garko is gone…non tendered….done with the org….another wasted late season trade
with pitching still a premium in this league, does anyone not think a package of sanchez, barnes and some other milb player, couldve brought one or two good bats?
And might as well throw Lewis into that construct.
I have to disagree with you about Frandsen though. Frankly, I don’t see how he put up the numbers he did in AAA. Just from watching him, he proves the adage that MLB is fast, fast fast. So fast that when a guy like him, as much success as he had in the minors just doesn’t quite have the hand, foot speed and hand-eye coordination to really compete against the best of the best.
Now having said that, the Giants would have been better off as you suggest going with Frandsen, Ishikawa, Lewis, and Sheirholtz through an entire season.
Frandsen and Lewis, like Raj Davis last year, should be more successful with the right organization. Probably in the AL. The A’s are pretty good at reclamation projects…and coaching baseball skills is one of the few organizational strengths they have. If I had a kid and had my druthers, I would sure as hell rather see him in the A’s minor system than the Giants.
Sabean has zero patience with young players. Thats what makes the Giants just a fucked up team to follow. They don’t even go through rebuilding years trying out new kids. They just keep overpaying useless piles of mediocre shit that is sometimes better than the mediocre home-growns and they continue to go in circles chasing their tales.
So far the Giants have wasted 3 seasons of Lincecum/Cain, and are about to waste a fourth. So far, the only team in the NL West doing anything are the Diamondbacks. They had a shitload of bad luck last year as much as the Giants had a lot of good luck. The Dodgers are kind of fucked with the circus act that is the MaCourts, and the divorce is playing havoc with Colleti’s ability to negotiate.
Somebody somewhere is rumoring that the settlement of the Burns estate is also playing havoc with the Giants as well as the estate is the biggest shareholder and the estate beneficiaries want to cash out.
Oh well.
It’s possible that we will be seeing a lot more of the younger players this coming season, and that isn’t such a bad thing when the alternative is Sabean signing veterans without any upside. I’m not counting on it, mind you, because since when has Sabean not hired veterans to block the young player’s progress?
+mia: I have taken the liberty of marking up your list. Go ahead and laugh – that hallow, ghastly, frightening laugh.
c. Molina upgrade: —————————none——————–Holm/Whiteside/Posey ?
1b Ishikawa/Garko upgrade:—————-none—————–Ishikawa/Sandoval ?
2b Sanchez: upgrade————————-none——————-Burris/Uggla ?
3b Sandoval: actual major league player—do not disturb—Sanchez/Sandoval ?
ss Renteria:upgrade————————–none——————–Burris/Frandsen ?
lf Velez: upgrade:—————————-none———————Velez/Torres ?
cf Rowand:upgrade—————————none———————Velez/Rowand ?
rf Winn: upgrade——————————none———————Schierholtz ?
Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2010 San Francisco Giants.
Do you think they will put a third commentator in the booth next season? Krukow might not be able to blow all that smoke by himself, and I think Kuiper might just hang himself.
I have seen some of Posey’s numbers. And I have seen 3 or 4 abs. I have yet to see anything remotely indicating that he is anything other than a nice kid that got conned out of his natural infielders position and got paid a lot of money to do it. So far, the Giants have physically beaten him to a pulp. For what purpose I don’t know. The only time he got a breather is when Sabean used him to light a fire under Molina’s ass in September to sit on the bench and draw dirty looks from Bruce Almighty.
Shit, they’ve had him playing winter ball, fall ball, spring and summer and just about every goddamned stupid venue short of the Amazon Rain Forest League. He simply is not, and has not been hitting the ball for several months now. Which makes him the typical Sabean free-agent prototype “must-have” acquistion. Too bad he’ll have to wait 13 years to qualify for savvy, gritty, vet status.
As for the projected 2010 lineup? Uhm. Really now. Who the fuck gives a shit. It’s going to reek. Bochy will fuck around with lineups and stupid hit and runs and mumble about playing fundamentally sound and moving runners along and blah balh alba etc. It won’t matter. Sabean can’t get anybody worth a shit to come here because its a shitty organization to play for if you’re seriously interested in going to the playoffs.
Why the fuck would Nick Johnson, or anybody in their right mind play for an idiot like Bochy when they could play for the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, etc etc etc.