Get ready for the inevitable stories about how this free agent or that wants to be a Yankee, or doesn’t want to play in PacBell, or is too expensive, or best yet, how there just aren’t any free agents available that meet the needs of the Giants after all.
Get ready for the excuses, the money worries, the reasons why the Giants are signing yet another washed up, middle of his decline phase, worthless league average mediocrity. Great.
Just remember, every year, baseball executives know exactly who will or won’t be available as a free agent. They know, for the most part, who will be available in 2010, 2011, etc., etc..
So, when you read about how there’s nobody that meets the Giants needs, or salary, or whatever, remember that Brian Sabean and his crack team had nothing else to do with themselves other than planning to meet this challenge. We needed home runs and walks last season, and did nothing about it. Now we need home runs and walks again, and inexpensive hitters who actually bring those things to the table are few and far between.
That is because our newly renewed GM failed at his job last off-season.
Felony in Progress
Holy Jesus Fuck. Is there anybody out there that has a wonderlich score higher than 4 that believes this shit as reported out by Baggs?
Note the carefully parsed “body of work in Pittsburgh” and how there is no fucking reference whatsoever to Sanchez’ “body of work in San Francisco”.
Let me sum up Freddy Fuckups “body of work in San Francisco”.
A .295 On Base Percentage. Meaning he has no fucking clue at the plate.
A .324 Slugging Percentage. Meaning he is a powerless twerp.
A .619 OPS. Meaning he is another brain dead motherfucker who swings at shit nightly with no fucking power AND no plate discipline
A .409 APP. Meaing He managed to make an appearance in less than half the games the Giants played while he was here because he was damaged goods. And is fucking old and getting older and more broken down.
So fuck you assholes who think this is a good trade for the purposes of winning a championship. It is beyond wishful thinking. You are a fucking willfully delusional asshole if you believe this transaction is anything other than more of the same franchise destroying behavior that has been going on for the entirety of Sabean’s reign of ignorance.
This is a great transaction if you want to cheer on in ignorant bliss, a 1/2 tool scrappy player, whose contract sucks away funds to sign a truly impactful and excellent player. It makes sense if all you want to do is drink and eat overpriced beer and cheese, talk on your cellphone while working on your melanoma-inducing tan in an uncomforatble overpriced seat at an amusement park. Its an awesome deal if all you want to do is put your hands together for a guy whose best attribute is his willingness to suck off writers from the local Bay Area Press and pat little kids on the head for 10 dollars a pop while signing useless pieces of cardborard. If thats your deal, this is a great deal by The mulletbrain.
But if you are interested in watching a team build its way towards a championship caliber organization, you are going to be disappointed for the 8th year in a row.
And if you’re a Dodger fan, though you may be fretting about the McCourts domestic woes impact on your boys in blue, at least you will know, that despite the annoying pitching of Lincecum, your domination over the Giants is not likely to be reversed.
Ever herd of small sample size?
What a blathering idiot you are!
You missed mentioning the two most important sample sizes in your entire meaningless, irritating, life. Your brain and your dick.
You ignorant butt crawling sack of Nookum splooge. If you sucked Sabean’s dick or pumped Baer’s peter any harder your lips would qualify for disability payments. You run out of places to wipe your ass on the internet again? Somebody made the mistake of talking to you once upon a time, and you thought it meant you actually had something worthwhile to say. If anybody wants to know what the fuck is on that puny little piece of shit called your mind, we’re all free to read sfgiantbullshit.com or brucejenkinsasstastesgood.org.
Maybe its because your mother didn’t have any children that actually lived that makes your scribblings so incomprehensible and your intellect so bankrupt that you really consider it high recognition when you are called out for the worthless runny slimy protoplasm that runs around the net referring to itself as a black and orange idiot savant.
Please feel free to comment more often. It allows me to narrow the focus of my profanity, and expand upon the vulgarity of my vocabulary while expending the effort on you, a totally useless and without redeeming social value pile of humanoid refuse.
You truly are a fuckface.
Yawn.
I get all angry about Freddy Sanchez (2 yrs/12 million for his sub .300 OBP) here http://jimjividen.blogspot.com/2009/10/in-praise-of-mike-singletary.html
Mia, the one disagreement I have is that the Giants are not averse to spending, they have enough of a payroll to be able to compete.
Its the fact that Sabean repeatedly invests in has-been “veterans”, who struggle to compete at below league average levels.
An occasional mistake, great. But Bernard to Rowand, this is a pattern that should be screaming over the ownership boardroom at their crap-tastic highly informative quarterly meetings. But this Limited Partnership has no clue, or serious interest in what is going on with the General Manager, or his hired hand.
That is what pisses people off.
“they have enough of a payroll to be able to compete”
I think this statement is where a lot of people have a problem. We spend enough to compete, to be “in this thing” until the very end. We don’t spend enough to win a championship. Given the Giants market size and revenue stream, we should be able to (Forbes estimates say the Giants are the biggest market team that’s had a positive operating revenue every year for the last 6 years, for instance) spend enough to seriously compete for a championship at least some years.
Instead, the ownership group is content to spend in the middle of the pack and pocket a profit every single season. Middle of the pack is fine for their purposes – because the wild card keeps half the teams in the race into September, it keeps the casual fan’s interest up, but it doesn’t show a serious commitment to bringing home a title.
To the facts:
12 teams outspent the Giants this year. The closest of those 12 to the Giants was the White Sox, and they still outspent the Giants by ~$13.5M. Last season, 16 teams outspent the Giants.
*These numbers were based on opening day payroll figures compiled by USA Today
B absolutely nails the problem dead on. The Giants do in fact spend enough to “compete”. They don’t “risk the capital” needed to win though. And thats the rub that pisses me off to no end. Your writing inadvertently reflects exactly what Larry Baer and the rest of the propaganda specialists want people to think and go no further.
The message is:
That is the modus operendi of the San Francisco Baseball Company. If you look at Sabean and Bochy with that in mind, you will understand why Horlick Neukom extended those guys out for 3 more years of turnstile turning and butt-plug plugging.
Most fans fall into the trap, innocently enough, of repeating the mantra of “competing”, and by repeating it often enough, folks end up eventually believing that competing is an objective itself and not the means to an end. In all competitive sports winners think in terms of winning, not competing. The guys that want to be “competitive” are the fodder for the championship seekers. They are the backdrop against which winners demonstrate their excellence.
Winning was: “Bonds took Gagne deep to win the game.”
Competing is: “Rowand had a nice AB against Broxton, hit a sacrifice fly to get the Giants within a run to come up just short.”
Compete has a complete different meaning than winning. The Giants will spend enough to compete, but not risk enough to win. That is the Microsoft way.
Does anybody really think that Microsoft builds and markets the best products they are capable of making? Of course not. They produce and sell the products that best contribute to their bottom line. Build and sell products that are “just good enough” to function and keep the majority of users semi-satisfied so that even if they aren’t happy, they are not disillusioned enough to stop using their products and services. Thats capitalism in its simplest form
“Compete in the marketplace” is fine if you’re a business, a local industry, a charity, or contractor. It implies that as long as you compete, you “win” at least a portion of the prize. But thats not winning championships. The elves at Phone Booth Cove know this. Thats why the use the term “compete” over and over again. Its designed to induce the listener to lower his expectations and still be satisfied with an inferior result.
Note how even in the Pac 10, Cal and Stanford Coaches Tedford and Harbaugh talk about “competing for the Big 10 Title” while Pete Carroll in Los Angeles talks about “winning a national championship”. But Cal fans and Stanford fans are happy for the most part to compete and be entertained. Like their counterparts who patronize Garlic Fries Stadium, they are happy to see a “competitive” team. But can you imagine the reaction around the country and particularly Los Angeles if Pete Carroll and AD Mike Garret at USC talked about “competing” for a Big 10 Title as being the main goal every year?
When Magowan was campaigning for the new stadium he constantly used phrases like winning a World Series, winning championships, winning their division with the expectation that they would be in the playoffs every year. The new stadium would afford them the funds to compete against the Yankees Angels Red Sox and Dodgers for the best players in the game.
But that was then. And this is now.
I mean really? Who the fuck is kidding who around here? Only fucking losers use the word “compete” to define their goals. Winners talk about winning championships constantly. The Giants, and the rest of the risk-avoidance crowd talk about competing. And I have no qualms with that whatsoever.
What I do have a problem with however, is fucking retards lying and trying to manipulate reality with Baer-originated horseshit that the Giants are anything but a glorified extension of Microsoft marketing principals applied to the amusement park at 3rd and King.
I call bullshit on the entire Giants operation. It is a fraud.
Half-Measures
Who the fuck gives a flying fuck at a rolling doughnut speculating what the Giants dipshits at 3rd and King are gonna do in the off-season. We already know. They’re going to sign one or two pieces of used up buffalo jerky who sport gritty gravy lip hair, with a reputation for sucking off management tools and who will get along with the Bay Area MSM.
I don’t know about anybody else, but I’m going to watch two really good fucking teams in the World Series go at each other. And you don’t have to go to fangraphs or any other fucking twaddle shit stat site to see the difference between teams bent on winning in the final stages of a marathon season to end all seasons, and the useless overpaid thumb-heads in vanilla spandex polluting the front of the order.
And if anybody thinks the Giants can compete with the pile of garbage that Sabean has managed to put together in the 7 fucking years since the Giants were last in a World Series, here are the front 5 lineup spots for the 2 best teams in each league and the first and second runners-up in the quest for the Bud Selig Saving children from steroids trophy.
Phillies
1. Rollins
2. Victorinio
3. Uttley
4. Howard
5. Werth
Yankees
1. Jeter
2. Damon
3. Teixeira
4. Rodriguez
5. Matsui
Dodgers
1. Furcal
2. Kemp
3. Ethier
4. Ramirez
5 Loney
Angels
1. Figgins
2. Abreu
3. Hunter
4. Guerrero
5. Rivera
Giants
1. Velez
2 Sanchez
3 Winn
4 Molina
5. Sandoval
And note how fucking FIVE FUCKING YEARS AT $60 FUCKING MILLION DOLLARS FENCEFACE OF GRIT AND GRAVY FRAT BOY Half-A-Tool Player, Aaron Rowand can’t even crack the top half of the lineup of one of the worst hitting teams in baseball.
And we’re going to speculate on who Brian Sabean is going to acquire? It doesn’t fucking matter. Because his track record is clear. The Giants only want management suckups, media friendly butt plugs who will save children and post up sub .700 OPS but get their uniforms dirty.
And like Microsoft, they will put out an inferior product, but will dominate Northern California Sports and reap huge profits while fleecing naive ticket buyers, because of a superior marketing and merchandising strategy. What part of corporate silver-spooned, smoking jacket, pipe sucking elitism do people not understand?
This piece of shit franchise is designed each year to do exactly what it has done for the last several years. Stay reasonably close (The wildcard is geared to keep at least half of all teams playing meaningful games in September…the only actual reason for its inception) in the playoff chase with inferior overpaid semi-celebrity players and useless over-hyped AAAA bush leaguers who are interchangeable from year to year, and than fade at the end. Give the illusion of “trying” but don’t put up the cash or risk the controversy of actually competing with the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies.
Half-measures will never ever in a hundred years defeat multiple opponents who are “all-in” every year.
The Bill James Hanbook 2010 is now available and thus the first of the many to come offseason projections for player performance next year. Grant at McCovey Chronicles has given us a look at these projections for many current Giants position players. The projected OBP/SLG for the thirteen of these players that I expect to make up the Giants opening day position player roster (baring any trades or free agency signings) and my projected playing time for them are as follows:
Catcher
Buster Posey .331/.405 80%
Eli Whiteside .260/.330 20%
Weighted Average .317/.390
First Base
Ryan Garko .357/.453 50%
Travis Ishikawa ..336/.436 50%
Weighted Average ..346/.444
Second Base
Freddy Sanchez .329/.404 70%
Manny Burriss .320/.321 30%
Weighted Average .326/.379
Third Base
Pablo Sandoval .382/.552 90%
Freddy Sanchez .329/.404 10%
Weighted Average .377/.537
Shortstop
Edgar Renteria .335/.383 80%
Manny Burriss .320/.321 20%
Weighted Average .332/.371
Left Field
Fred Lewis .351/.410 55%
Eugenio Velez .318/.383 45%
Weighted Average .336/.398
Center Field
Aaron Rowand .327/.423 80%
Andres Torres .330/.401 20%
Weighted Average .328/.419
Right Field
Nate Schierholtz .325/.459 55%
Andres Torres .330/.401 35%
Eugenio Velez .318/.383 10%
Weighted Average .326/.431
If we use Tim Lincecum’s actual 2009 production of .219/.167 OBP/SLG as our projection for what the Giants will get from the pitcher’s position in the batting order (understanding that pinch hitters will do better but other pitchers will do worse to balance each other out) and run these weighted average projections thru Baseball Musings’ Lineup Analysis Tool these projections of performance from Bill James and playing time from me see this Giants team scoring 4.402 runs per game next year for a season total of 713.
If we project the Giants pitching and defense to allow 12 more runs then last year the net result will still project this 2010 Giants Team to score 90 more runs then it gives up which should make it a playoff team.
Research is always good.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/10/20/1092076/btb-power-ranking-season-review-nl
Some people have suggested the Giants were lucky to score as many runs as we did based on how our team performed offensively, and we were lucky to prevent as many runs as we did given how we performed defensively and pitching. Your points seem to adequately cover the offense part…so, what about “the other 39 to 52 run difference, though, remains unexplained.”
Basically, it seems there’s a good chance we should expect to give up more than 12 more runs than last year…
BtB has been consistently negative (frankly in my opinion to an irrational level) about the NL in general and the Giants in particular.
I still read them but I fully understand their bias and make it a point to take this bias into account when I do so.
I actually agree with this to a point. I think BtB’s model underrates the Giants, and I believe there’s good evidence to this point (as BtB is more negative on the Giants than every other model like Fangraphs WAR and what not). As for their NL/AL stuff, it’s kind of irrelevant and untestable, so I don’t even look at that part – I look at the records before the league adjustment. However, though I think their model might have some issues, I do think there’s still a valid point in there – the Giants were lucky both on offense and defense and should not have scored as many runs as they did nor should they have let up as few as they did. As I said, I don’t think it’s nearly to the degree BtB seems to think, but it’s pretty clearly there to some degree.
As shown above, Bill James’ projections for the Giants Offense in 2010 do not agree and now below I will show that his projections for the Giants Pitching in 2010 also does not agree.
Sourced again from Grant at Mccovey Chronicles the Bill James 2010 Pitching Projections for the Giants are as follows:
Starting Pitchers
Matt Cain – 3.36 ERA in 225 Innings yielding 84 earned runs
Tim Lincecum – 2.80 ERA in 228 Innings yielding 71 earned runs
Brad Penny – 4.01 ERA in 182 Innings yielding 81 earned runs
Jonathan Sanchez – 3.91 ERA in 184 Innings yielding 80 earned runs
Barry Zito – 3.95 ERA in 196 Innings yielding 86 earned runs
Total – 402 earned runs in 1015 Innings resulting in a rotation team ERA of 3.56 which beats 2009′s 3.58.
Relief Pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt – 3.94 ERA in 64 Innings yielding 28 earned runs
Bob Howry – 3.44 ERA in 68 Innings yielding 26 earned runs
Randy Johnson – 3.67 ERA in 54 Innings yielding 22 earned runs
Joe Martinez – 4.18 ERA in 56 Innings yielding 26 earned runs
Brandon Medders – 4.38 ERA in 74 Innings yielding 36 earned runs
Justin Miller – 4.40 ERA in 43 Innings yielding 21 earned runs
Sergio Romo – 2.25 ERA in 44 Innings yielding 11 earned runs
Merkin Valdez – 5.02 ERA in 43 Innings yielding 24 earned runs
Brian Wilson – 3.24 ERA in 75 Innings yielding 27 earned runs
Total – 197 earned runs in 521 Innings resulting in a bullpen team ERA of 3.40 which beats 2009′s 3.49.
Good info. A few points that’s dependent on, though:
We resign Brad Penny (or comparable pitcher).
We have no injuries to our starters.
We have no injuries to our relievers.
We don’t have to call up any minor league guys for starts OR relief appearances (well, there are 19 total pitchers there giving us room for one call-up I guess).
Every single pitcher on our staff puts up a sub-4.50 ERA except 1. That seems a bit optimistic to me? Obviously guys can beat their projections, too, but it just looks like a lot of those guys have a lot more room to perform worse than better…
If a lot of things go very right, sure, we could come close to matching last years performance ERA-wise. We’re talking about total run prevention, though, and there are a couple more points left. Defense – Winn is gone. Rowand is older. Renteria is older. Some players may improve, some may decline, can we repeat the same performance as last year where we were one of the best defensive teams in the majors? Sanchez, if he’s healthy, can possibly improve our 2B defense from last year (we were pretty average overall at 2B). Will Ishikawa or Garko or some unknown other player get the majority of the 1B playing time? Who’s going to play corner OF? These will all have an effect – like before, I’d bet on a slightly worse performance for next season overall, though. Another place where injuries will certainly play a role over the course of the season.
Another point – I have no idea how unearned runs work. I don’t know if teams can possibly be skilled at it, how well it correlates from year to year, or anything about the factors that affect it. I do know only 3 teams had less unearned runs than the Giants last year. We let up 40 unearned runs. The Phillies let up the least at 36. The Nationals had the most at 80. The average was 55. Again, I don’t know anything about this, but my wild guess is that we can probably expect 10-20 additional unearned runs next year relative to this year – basically just being closer to average.
I took a quick look at free agents.
These all have Sabean-like qualities. I predict one of these will be a Giant next year. (in order)
Aubrey Huff
Chone Figgins
Dmitri Young
Mike Cameron
Coco Crisp
Marlon Byrd
Magglio Ordonez
Melvin Mora
Brian Giles
Rick Ankiel
Andruw Jones
Exciting, eh? Vlad could perhaps the list, as he is probably “mature” enough to be a Giant!
The two names on this list that jump out as perfect Sabean choices: Brian Giles and Melvin Mora.
So we go with this Sabeantacular lineup:
1b- Ryan Garko
2b- Freddi Sanchez
SS- Edgar Renteria
3b- Melvin Mora/Pablo Sandoval
LF- Eugenio Velez
CF- Aaron Rowand
RF- Brian Giles
C- Benji Molina
Bench- Randy Winn, Rich Aurilla, Juan Uribe, Travis Ishikawa (yup bringing back the glory)
Can’t wait for 2010
If I had time, I could predict the free agent hitter Sabean will sign (beside F. Sanchez – who fits the criteria of Sabean so well, even if he weren’t already here, he would be #1 on the list.) Of course, I presume Molina is coming back – he is also too perfect!
Sabean will be looking to sign a “value-priced veteran”:
Reasonable batting average (.267-.293)
Shown some home run power one season a few years back (Say 18-25)
reasonable, often over-rated defense
31-35 years old
not many walks
not too many strikeouts
injuries are OK, as long as this past season they were mostly healthy
A “positive” veteran presence, whatever that means
if possible, a switch hitter!
Plays 3B, 1B, LF or RF.
If there is a free agent fitting the above, he will be in B&O next season!
Come to think of it, maybe someone like Randy Winn could be available?
Well, that’s certainly about as pessimistic an outlook as someone could come up with Robert. My only problem with it is I can’t really refute anything about it. I only have a qualm with one point:
“It seems likely they want to be good enough, competitive enough, to milk as much revenue out of the fan base as humanly possible. Perhaps they have reasoned that winning too much would raise expectations too high, make fielding a team too costly in the cost benefit analysis of their ideal business model.”
It’s not that they’re going for as much revenue as possible – it’s about as much profit as possible. Winning championships costs money, and that eats into the profit. It doesn’t cost nearly as much to field a team that gives the aura of competitiveness before inevitably giving way at the end of the season, and that’s why they do it that way. Winning is the biggest factor in attendance – so the most revenue comes from winning the most, it’s just at some point the costs associated with that winning pass the equilibrium and start decreasing profits (yes, I have an econ degree)….
Anyways, as for John’s points, I’ll just add that any of us simple fans can head on over to Cot’s Contracts and check out the “Others” section on the left side and find all that useful GM stuff he mentioned in one spot. 2009 FA’s, 2010 FA’s, 2011, FA’s, 2009-2013 payroll obligations for every team, projected Elias rankings, etc…
I should have said ‘profit’ rather than ‘revenue’. You would make a good editor.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not knocking the fun to be had by speculating about who is available and what the Giants could do to improve; I am just feeling a bit disaffected about their decision to keep Sabean and that long yawn Bochy. If they’d made a change I could at least suspend my disbelief and hope for these deals to be made, but instead I can only realistically expect the re-signing of Molina, the return of Sanchez, the inability to sign Penny as too expensive, the advancement of some other mediocrity to take the place of Johnson, ad nauseum, until the pitching staff departs for greener pastures where third place is not the goal of the ballclub. I am sure my cynicism is fueled by the usual post season let down, but it is reinforced by a long string of post season let downs.
I don’t doubt that there will be some effort to obtain a bat or two, if only as a sop to the fans. If history is any guide I expect this bat or bats to come at the cost of draft picks and/or prospects from the minors. Sabean is, in my opinion, absolutely clueless about how to evaluate or develope every day player prospects. He has shown no aptitude in this regard outside of pitchers and I cannot imagine what epiphany might allow him to develope this skill. I personally feel that the removal of managers who had opinions and ideas is symptomatic of Sabean’s desire to dominate the decision making process and to keep control of the personel choices; a situation a real baseball manager would find more than a little problematic. Dusty was probably too eager to win and wouldn’t or couldn’t take dictation from a marketing tool like Sabean.
It is my impression that Bochy is content to make due with whatever assemblage of veterans he is provided. He will not rock the boat by expecting better players. Bochy’s own record suggests he likes the smell of Bengay in the dugout.
I believe Sabean eliminates these trouble makers systematically. Carney Lansfords departure comes to mind.
You may not have noticed, but Lansford’s firing has been expunged from the Giants web page.
While speculating about all of the possible moves Brian Sabean could make to improve the Giants this off season is titillating it also flies in the face of any reasonable expectation based on many years of observation. While there may be young power hitters itching to change teams, fleet of foot and soft of hand, they will not, if history teaches us anything, be signing up with the Giants. Not while Mr. Sabean has any say in the matter.
Please consult your collective memory to produce a single instance where Sabean has acquired anything like a young power hitter, and Jeff Kent will come to mind instantly followed by a very long pause during which you will cross off player after player on your mental list.
In the twelve years since that singular event, there should be another instance of the team acquiring a young power hitter, either through the draft, trade or free agency. In those twelve years the 25 man rosters of the Giants have consisted of fully 300 players. Where is that young power hitter? How is it even possible not to have drafted, traded for or purchased the contract of another such player?
In any normal, competitive baseball organization, the inability to draft, trade for, or purchase the contract of desirable players would reflect poorly on those individuals whose sine qua non is the drafting, trading for, or purchasing the contracts of desirable players. These individuals who are assigned this task, who are selected for their excellence and their savvy, their baseball I.Q.’s, their deal making skills, are very well paid to exercise their craft. So how is it that the Giants have failed to overcome even the law of averages?
It seems unbelievable, but one is forced to conclude that the Giants have been working against the normal, competitive baseball organization’s goal of drafting and developing, or trading for, or purchasing the contracts of desirable players. This consistent result can only be the product of a long enduring pursuit of a strategy or policy that ensures that no such player is found, no such player is produced, no such player acquired. There is a firm and steady hand on the tiller that is steering the team along this course of mediocrity. It is the hand of GM Brian Sabean, who has been given a fat contract to prolong and extend this strategy or policy.
It is tempting to speculate about why the Giants pursue this strategy; what are their goals? Winning the World Series doesn’t seem to be their goal. They’ve already got a new stadium. What do they want?
It seems likely they want to be good enough, competitive enough, to milk as much revenue out of the fan base as humanly possible. Perhaps they have reasoned that winning too much would raise expectations too high, make fielding a team too costly in the cost benefit analysis of their ideal business model. Give the fans hope, but don’t break the bank. Don’t cook the goose that lays golden eggs season after season. This scenario explains the actions of Brian Sabean and the extension of his contract.
The team is being run on a marketing principle and model that defines winning in moderation as a good thing, but winning too much as a bad thing: Always leave them wanting more.
The only counter to their strategy is a fan boycott. A complete rejection of the terms they are offering, forcing the team to alter their model. They are confident that no such boycott will take place, that fan loyalty and the general ignorance of the majority of fans will sustain their golden goose indefinitely.
This is a cynical outlook, and I am fan enough to hope that I am wrong, but in my gut I feel that this is the truth of the situation.