Be very afraid:
…. managing general partner Bill Neukom said he expects the Giants’ active payroll to rise in 2010.
“I anticipate that in terms of actual dollars of people playing for the Giants between the lines, it should be an uptick from this year,” said Neukom, who did not divulge a specific amount. It is not expected to be dramatic.
…. Asked if that means the team would consider one of the few wildly expensive middle-of-the-order hitters expected to be free agents, he said without mentioning names such as Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, “I wouldn’t rule out anybody at this point.”
At the same time, Neukom said the Giants have a “finite amount” of money for payroll
…. No matter which players the Giants consider this winter, Neukom said, the same formula will apply in evaluating them – and here is the caveat on the big-money hitters:
“At the end of the day, the question is going to be, Would this person significantly help us and make us more likely to be a winning baseball team, competitive to contending?” Neukom said.
“What’s it going to cost us in money? We have a finite amount of money to spend on this. Can we afford the money? Can we afford to give up the talent we would give up to get this person in a trade situation? Does acquiring this person (place a) lid on some talent we have coming up? Finally, what does this addition to the roster mean to the chemistry of this team?”
Let’s take a look at these questions in the order that Neukom asked them:
Would this person significantly help us and make us more likely to be a winning team?
The Giants are finishing a season in which they’ve scored fewer runs than just about every other team in baseball. Position by position, our team looks like this:
Catcher 27th in OBP 15th in OPS
First 26th in OBP 26th in OPS
Second 29th in OBP 29th in OPS
Third 5th in OBP 2nd in OPS
Short 18th in OBP 22 in OPS
Left 19th in OBP 20th in OPS
Center 22nd in OBP 20th in OPS
Right 29th in OBP 29th in OPS
So, for those of you not paying attention, we have a league average catcher, a top of the line third baseman, and nothing else. There are eight positions on the diamond, and we have one of them filled. That pretty much means that Neukom is already posturing. He is already getting prepared to tell us that, for the team to be able to go out and sign players like Matt Holliday, if they are going to cost so much money, one must be able to prove that they will help the team win. I can hear him already, “Well, you know we won 87 games last year with Randy Winn –who is an All Star, by the way– in right, why should we spend $40 million to get a guy who’s only marginally better.”
Not to mention, our GM is too stupid to know the difference anyway. Last year, we went out and got Edgar Renteria and Randy Johnson, and Jeremy Affeldt. Brian Sabean went out and upgraded three of the 25 men on his roster because he thought that would translate into making the postseason. So, we already watched Sabean make moves that were never, ever, going to “significantly” improve the team’s chances, even though Brian Sabean thought they would, just one more reason he should be fired. He thought that signing Edgar Renteria, Jeremy Affeldt and Randy Johnson were significant, dramatic upgrades, upgrades that would propel the team to the playoffs, even though we knew those kinds of moves were absolutely provably wrong, and absolutely guaranteed to fail.
…. To suggest that Renteria would even be an improvement over the stack of cordwood the Giants have been trotting out to short the last couple of seasons is laughable.
The Giants ranked dead last in all of baseball in production from short, running out a horrific .228/.295/.281 .576 OPS line that actually understates how bad it really was. The Giants shortstops scored 51 runs, accumulated 156 total bases, hit 1 home run, and made something like 450 outs.
Renteria (.270/.318/.382 .699 OPS) scored 69 runs, accumulated 192 total bases, hit 10 home runs, and also made something like 450 outs. To oversimplify just a bit, virtually all of the difference between him and the Giants shortstops was in the extra 9 home runs he hit; which he will never hit in a Giants uniform.
Again, a team as far from contention as the Giants shouldn’t even consider paying a 33-year old that kind of money, regardless of how good he is; and Renteria just isn’t all that good anymore. He had a fluky .332 season two years ago, but other than that, he’s been a league average hitter with modest defensive skills, who will be 34-years old this season.
Here’s what the boys at Baseball Prospectus said about Renteria before last season:
…. This may come as a surprise given his recent production, but PECOTA is not a fan of Edgar Renteria heading into 2008. His forecast is just .279/.343/.393 with a Collapse Rate of 50 percent. Part of the reason why for that decline is easy to spot—his BABIP was .375 last season, which helped him hit .332 on the season. There’s a significant drop in his projected power production as well, stemming from a combination of his getting older and also switching from the better league for hitters. If we adjusted his line from last year just for his BABIP, he would be somewhere around .307/.365/.445; that high Collapse Rate is PECOTA’s way of saying he isn’t as good as his 2007.
And then he wasn’t as good as his projection. You think he’s gonna be better this season, a right-hander with little power playing half his games at PacBell? $9 million good?
I don’t.
He failed to even reach the low levels of his forecast, .279/.343/.393 .736 OPS, running out a dismal .250/.307/.328 .635 OPS line, including, just as I predicted, only 5 home runs and 40 missed games. He scored, by the way, 50 runs, accumulated 187 total bases, and made 345 outs in 124 games. I won’t bore you with rehashing my accurate prediction that Johnson would get his 300th win and then not play another game.
What’s it going to cost us in money? We have a finite amount of money to spend on this. Can we afford the money?
Well, yes, you can. You can afford the money. We know that you can, because you give it away like it’s covered in anthrax. You “gave” $18 million dollars to Dave Roberts, who went from the Giants to the retirement home. You “gave” $18 million to Edgar Renteria, who was worth exactly ten cents in the grand scheme of “help us win a championship,” horseshit you’re trotting out right now. You, and your crack team of baseball experts are already getting your selves ready to “give” something like $30 million to Freddie–I am not 100 years old–Sanchez.
Here’s an idea…. Go out and “give” some money to a real baseball player. One who isn’t already past his prime, who isn’t injured, or out of shape, or a “savvy veteran.” Go out and get a good, young hitter, preferably an rightfielder, which will allow you to use Winn as a fourth outfielder. Send Fred Lewis to the winter league to learn how to play left, let Rowand play everyday in center. Sign Uribe for $3 or 4 million per and hope he has one more year in him. Sign Penny for about the same. Leave Sandoval at third base, play Velez at second and pray that he wasn’t an illusion the last two months, and platoon Garko and Ishikawa. Don’t throw another $25 million on the ground for Freddie Sanchez, who’s a marginal player at his best.
Does acquiring this person (place a) lid on some talent we have coming up?
AAAAAAAA—–HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!
What does this addition to the roster mean to the chemistry of this team?
Fuck you and your “chemistry.” Grow up! Have a player who’s not the nicest guy in the world, but is actually good, on your roster. You sound like an old lady when you talk about chemistry. Winning breeds chemistry. Players who don’t fail all the time make good teammates. You think anyone on the Giants cares about the fact that they’re all good guys right now? Or maybe you think they wish they had that prick Bonds around to, oh, I don’t know, maybe hit a couple of home runs every once in a while?
21 Backtalkers
Renteria was a horrible signing, obviously and Randy Johnson wasn’t great either, but do you really think that the Jeremy Affeldt signing doesn’t qualify as a “significant, dramatic upgrade”? Really? One of the reasons the Giants are a winning ballclub this year is because of their strong bullpen, and Affeldt was a major part of that, for a small two-year deal. Not sure why he’s included here; that was a terrific signing.
Going after a middle reliever, regardless of his effectiveness, is a complete waste of time for a team that needed to score well over 100 more runs than the year before.
Chemistry is important! Remember how having Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds on the same team completely ruined the 2002 season? Didn’t we learn anything from how badly the 1970s Athletics and Yankees fared???
All indications are Sabean is coming back. At this point, there’s really not much more to say. I hold no hope for this offseason or any smart acquisitions at all.
As for Paul R., sure, Affeldt is a good [relief] pitcher, but relievers are pretty unimportant in the overall outcome of the season. By Fangraphs calculations, our pitchers have contributed 21.7 WAR this season. Affeldt has contributed .7 of that. Relievers are never significant upgrades – they simply do not pitch enough innings.
John Shea says they’re both coming back:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/01/SPEC19VOOG.DTL&tsp=1
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back …. Be afraid…
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back …. Be afraid…
Houston. We have a problem
So much for change of direction and leadership, as the Giants make it official that Abbot and Costello will be brought back to waste even more of the partnerships fortunes, and serious followers of the Giants, time.
From OBM July 30 and 31st.
So this bowtie is just what we feared. The Sum of All Fears.
I was really holding out hope he was more than that – that he’d see through Sabean’s BS at how incompetent he is. Apparently not.
Robert made some really good points (which are still valid) its just that Neukom did not play to his strengths. That is not uncommon for a guy out of his element, and clearly he is. He is not a baseball guy. He is a tech world mouthpiece. Brilliant, accomplished and recognized.
But this is baseball. Being smart or accomplished or brilliant in other fields, while being an asset is not enough to prevail against the richest of the rich and the best of the best.
Like most competitve sports. All things being equal in terms of speed, mobility, you always take the big guy over the little guy.
In MLB, the big guys are in LA, Boston, Philadelphia, and New York, with Dallas under Nolan Ryan charging hard.
These teams are run by smart, baseball guys. Classic case is New York
The Steinbrenners are baseball men, father and son. The Wilpons are stocks and bonds guys. Need I say more?
Really, I’m about ready to move on from this franchise. I live 10 hours away from SF and attended three games this year (two with my family) in person (saw Lincecum pitch twice: one great one vs. Colorado and one good one vs. the Angels, where the “D” and “O” disappeared at various times and Lincecum lost). I get the MLB package every year and watched a good 100 games to boot. The Giants are ridiculous and Giants management is and has been using us dopes for years now. If they want my money and my interest, I expect them to be serious…not “Beat LA” hats as serious, but serious about winning and about maintaining a consistent winning model.
Me, too. I am, for the second time in three years, considering spending the money, and just getting the MLB package. I can watch the Yankees, like I did when I lived in NY, and fuck this bullshit. This franchise is a disgrace. It is a laughably inept, horribly deficient, an embarrassing, poorly run joke. Sadly, I am the enabler in this relationship. Sitting here, watching this organization make these kinds of predictably wrong decisions, year after year after year, makes me realize that I am the dupe.
There is a solid 50% chance this site will be covering the Yankees next season. I can’t do this anymore. Writing about the Giants for almost seven years, while fan after fan leaves, while nobody comes here anymore, because anyone truly invested in a championship team can see that the odds of this team getting there are slim.
Strange that you mention this John. I got a rare chance to watch an afternoon Giants game yesterday. Maybe I’m a cynic. But I just don’t care much about any of the players on that team anymore, and every year it seems I lose even more interest. Even Lincecum with his Michael Jackson hair and skateboard grunge sneer has worn a little thin.
Like most fans, I rooted for the team, and if a guy was on my team, I supported him. For years, when Stoneham and Lurie and the early Magowan days, there was never any doubt that the Giants were trying to win. They always felt that if you put a winning team on the field, the crowds and the monetary benefits would follow.
But this collection of swindlers headed up by Orville Redenbacker; after bamboozling the voters of San Francisco into a millions of dollars worth of tax breaks to build their brick-sided circus tent, have implemented their own pursuit of excellence. And despite the lies to the contrary, there is no interest in making championships a priority. Excellence is measured in maximum revenue stream into the building.
As I look at this roster, and go over the names my feelings range from apathay to loathing.
I don’t really care about most.
Basically, this ought to tell you everything you need to know about the “new direction” and “the Giants way.” From the 2009 Giants website at sfgiants.com
Senior Consultant, Player Personnel Jack Hiatt
Senior Consultant, Player Personnel Ron Perranoski
Special Assistant, Player Development Joe Amalfitano
Special Assistant, Player Development Jim Davenport
Way to turn the page guys.
With cadavers like that still whispering in Senior Management’s ear, is there any reason what-so-fucking ever to believe even one fucking word coming out of Mr. Popcorn’s piehole?
CLUSTER FUCK
I was wrong. I was convinced that Neukom would not extend a new contract to Sabean.
I constructed arguments supporting this belief and they have proved to be based on wishful thinking.
I am frustrated, I am disappointed, and I am sick at heart.
No. I don’t think your thoughts were based on wishful thinking at all. You got my attention with the construct and I still believe your logic was and is correct. Any more than mine would have been if he had indeed behaved as you reasoned, and not with my eventual outcome.
For all we know, he may have very well gone in the direction you predicted, and changed his mind in the last few days for reasons we will never know.
One of the beautiful things about the human being is the ability to change. He can change next year.
And then we will both be right
you all know what this means
renteria stays
and sabean overspends to keep sanchez here
either cain or the good sanchez are packaged for a trade…that will turn out badly
oh…and as it is not the giants way to fire anyone…sabean and bochy complete their new 3 year contracts
shoot…timmy is happy with bochy, cuz he lets him look like a refugee from a grunge concert…ya…that will get us to the ws for sure
I hate Velez at second, he’s so shitty there it affects his hitting. Put him in left and we’re good. I’m hoping Freddy will be OK–remember, I’m a Giants fan, so hope always triumphs experience here. My cat could have taken one look at Renteria BEFORE signing him and seen he was fat and didn’t give a rat’s ass; why can’t professional baseball people see this? And agreed, chemistry my ass! Microsoft was run by a couple of the most disagreeable pricks you’d ever not want to meet, and had buildings chock full of junior pricks and assistant pricks. If you are actually nice and try to get along there, you’re a feichling and won’t last long. Yet, somehow Microsoft managed to succeed a little. Same in sports–I agree with the guy who referenced the 2002 Giants and 70s A’s and Yankees. And how about that WWII coalition of Ike, Monty, and Stalin? Old Ike also had to deal with the monstrously egotistic Patton and Macarthur, as well as the incredibly arrogant Marshall and Roosevelt back home. Somehow, he muddled through and managed the team to victory. Chemistry? Chemistry? You’re talkin’ about chemistry? Chemistry?
You always tend to overstate things. A penchant for melodramatics makes good copy but not necessary accurate or fair.
My two cents: Benji Molina is amongst the top 4 catchers in baseball–both the AL and the NL. He is 4th in HRs and 5th in RBIs. For a guy who playing for 50% of Rowand’s salary and 75% of Renteria’s this is not the “league average catcher” you describe. The guy played his heart out and deserves better credit.
Lane,
With all due respect, fans like you are the reason Sabean hasn’t been fired. Fans like you, who look at the most superficial stats, and pay no attention to the details that winning teams seek to exploit. Regards Molina, he made 400 outs this season, in just 530 plate appearances. He walked 13 times, and grounded into 14 double plays. He created 59 runs, or 4.14 runs per 27 outs, which is to say, he was a perfect representation of the league-worst offense of the SF Giants as an offensive player. The fact that he hit 20 home runs and drove in 80 runs is simply due to the fact that ha batted cleanup all season long, even though he was among the least productive everyday players in baseball.
“The guy played his heart out and deserves better credit.”
To be fair to Molina, if he was surrounded by good hitters, and could be batted 7th or 8th in the lineup, I’d be able to overlook his league average production (as a catcher) and be happy that there was an experienced catcher behind the plate calling pitches for the Giants staff. I respect Molina, and how much he loves playing the game, but he’s not a cleanup hitter. Hitting 80 RBIs in the cleanup spot isn’t a feat, it’s terrible. The problem is that Sabean and his front office *seem* to care about all the wrong stats, instead of using modern, proven methods to determine which players are actually an upgrade for the team.
Without the fantastic season that appeared out of nowhere for one Pablo Sandoval, the Giants may not have even sniffed the playoffs this year. He was the only fielder who truly deserves any credit for the Giants unexpected success this year.
“The problem is that Sabean and his front office *seem* to care about all the wrong stats, instead of using modern, proven methods to determine which players are actually an upgrade for the team.”
Using those stats, Molina is below average even for a C.
I respectfully disagree with you about his being an experienced catcher behind the plate. He may have been experienced, but he is now so woefully out of shape, he cannot move, and cost pitchers strikes time after time by having to move his glove outside the knees instead of his big fat carcass, thereby costing Giants pitchers critical strikes.