Or is it?
After yesterday’s flurry of deals, something occurred to me. No one seems to have traded their best prospects. The Phillies kept Drabek and Taylor, and still got the reigning Cy Young winner from the AL. The Giants arguably traded the best prospect of anyone, Tim Alderson. They traded two of their top four or five prospects. Did they get anything remotely close to the best player, or one of the top six players acquired?
Not in any world that includes brains, they didn’t.
And as for all of the questions about whether Bochy should bat Molina cleanup, we’re really looking at a moot point, aren’t we? If not Molina, then who? The Panda needs to bat third, he is clearly our best hitter. It hardly matters where anyone else hits, they’re all essentially the same player. Molina probably does have the most power, outside of Sandoval. But, really, what does it matter? A perfectly maximized lineup would score about .1 runs more than a lineup made up by throwing darts. Here’s the on base percentages of the ten players who have had the most at bats this season: .320 .335 .373 .335 .307 .270 .325 .322 .309 .337. The Panda is the .373. Obviously, the only slot that matters is putting him third. Sanchez, by the way, has posted a .334 OBP this season, so, he’ll fit right in.
It’s so depressing, looking at this offense. The Giants team OBP is .307, which is, of course, dead last in all of baseball. They have 66 home runs, which is second to last. Their slugging percentage, .381, is second to last as well. Their OPS, .681, is second to last. They’ve scored the second to last number of total runs, 407.
We needed home runs and walks. More than any contender, we needed home runs and walks. We should have done nothing rather than trade Alderson and Barnes for two guys we pretty much already had.
41 Backtalkers
With These Two Trade Deadline Deals, How Much Better Are The Giants Now?
For the purposes of this analysis I am going to assume that Garko and Sanchez are just break even when they take PAs away from Ishikawa and Uribe even thow I think (and in Sanchez’s case know) that the new guys are better. What I want to look at is how much the Giants have gained by replacing the 130 PAs in the first 102 games Aurilia and Guzman got with Garko and the 322 PAs in the first 102 games Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen got with Sanchez.
In these 130 PAs Aurila and Guzman combined to produce a WAR of -0.7 while Garko produced a WAR of 1.2 in 285 PAs. Garko therefore would have produced a WAR of about +0.5 or 1.2 more the Aurilia and Guzman in these same 130 PAs. However, while 102 games have been played todate only 60 remain which means we should expect a net gain of about 0.7 Wins from this upgrade for the rest of the season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/myteam.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=n&type=6&season=2009&month=0&u=7161
In these 322 PAs Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen combined to produce a WAR of -1.3 while Sanchez produced a WAR of 2.2 in 382 PAs. Sanchez therefore would have produced a WAR of about 1.9 or 3.2 more the Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen in these same 322 PAs. However, again while 102 games have been played todate only 60 remain which means we should expect a net gain of about 1.8 Wins from this upgrade for the rest of the season.
http://www.fangraphs.com/myteam.aspx?pos=2b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=n&type=6&season=2009&month=0&u=7161
Bottom line these upgrades should be worth about 2.5 Wins to the Giants for the remainder of the season. I do not like the price Brian paid for these upgrades but these 2.5 Wins should indeed significantly improve our playoff chances.
You posted thisall over the internet already The least you could do is be courteous enough to use proper html coding when spamming. On second thought, put down the finger paint and butcher paper. You’re making a mess.
I posted it here for John’s benifit as I didn’t think he was a reader of McCovey Chronicles.
When I have more time I intend to also post a comparison of how much we gained from the trades we made (Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko) to how much we would of gained if we had done John’s White Whales (Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson) instead.
I didn’t know you were a reader of McCovey Chronicles. What is you handle at the McCoven?
I read all of the Giants sites all the time. McCovey Chronicles is awesome. I don’t much like the thread system every much, but I go there a couple of times a week.
As for your argument, 2.5 wins is a nice upgrade, but, in my opinion, not enough. And the cost was excessive. Again, you cannot argue that these players are much more then the very best versions of the kind of league average mediocrities that Sabean continues to stockpile, and quite possibly bring no improvement at all.
Here’s some salt for the wounds.
The Giants top 7 players’ salaries. Each one is a Sabean Free Agent signing except for Noah Lowry whose contract was renegotiated. All were for multiple years except the 17 games the Giants pinched out of Randy Johnson on a one year deal before he predictably blew up a body part or two.
1. Barry Zito 18,500,000
2. Randy Winn 9,600,000
3. Aaron Rowand 9,600,000
4. Randy Johnson 8,000,000
5. Edgar Renteria 8,000,000
6. Bengie Molina 6,500,000
7. Noah Lowry 4,750,000
Thats a total of $65 million (almost 80% of the total of $82.6 million in salaries due for 2009) And of that, the Giants are stuck with most expensive of these hacks next year as well: Zito, Rowand, and Renteria for about 35 Million more or less.
Funny how they could see their way clear to throw $8 million dollars at 45 year old mercenary Randy Johnson, with back and shoulder problems, no connection to SF, and nobody else interested in him, yet couldn’t find a who even at the age of 41 was still the second or third best hitter in the league, And he would have been the 1st, 2nd, and third best hitters in the Giants lineup the following year. The most popular athlete in San Francisco history next to Joe Montana.
These are not pure baseball decisions. These are strictly marketing and Media Relations moves.
In the fourth largest market in the country, the Giants payroll is ranked 14th behind Anaheim, Seattle, Houston, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Detroit
For some perspective. That is $ 65 million being spent on six garbage cans and a future pizza truck driver. Rowand is the only one contributing in even a modest fashion. That $65 million recycling project is almost comparable to the entire payrolls of Tampa, Cleveland, Minnesota and exceeds the entire payrolls of Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego, and Florida according to ESPN payroll rankings. And this is before some of those teams dumped payroll!
So if its only bottom line one is worried about, munch on those crunchy digits for awhile. On wasted money alone, Sabean should be replaced.
Let me put it another way. If Sabean had been in charge of an investment fund, he would be keeping Bernie Madoff company.
personally, i think sabean pulled these trades to keep john’s mind off the continuing hypocracy of the mlb and fans regarding ped’s
i still cant figure out why the players union hasnt filed suit against the mlb, regarding the leak of the names
if i were the player rep of a team, i would tell my players not to allow themsellves to be submitted for testing, as it is apparent that the mlb has not kept their side of the bargain.
Joe, the Union has no basis for a claim against MLB on this. The Feds and the Union are the only ones with access to this list and these leaks are most likely from the Feds. Now the players do have a basis for a claim against the Union as the Union completely mishandled this by failing to have this list destroyed as was their responsibility under the agreement with MLB in the month they had to do this before the Feds became interested in this list and it became illegal for it to be destroyed.
so the feds got the list from the union not the mlb offices?
Actually the Two Test Labs had the lists, the Union had a month to instruct the labs to destroy it (as was the agreement with MLB) before the Feds got interested but failed to do so. After the Feds got the list from the labs they provided the union (but not MLB) a copy. Since the Feds seased the list the Union has been fighting in court to have the Feds return the list so it can be destroyed as it was supose to be case per the agreement with MLB. the case is currently in the 9th District Fed Appeals Court and the losing side is expected to appeal to the US Supreme Court once the 9th District rules later this year. Bottom line, this is going to drag on past this year and at least into the summer next year.
so you think the leak is coming from the union or the labs
cant be the union…that would be stupid
and i still dont understand why names were attached to the results in the first place
No, I think the leak came from the Feds. I do agree with you that the Union also screwed up by allowing a process that allowed the Feds to figure out which results were for which players. It is this mistake in addition to the failure to have the list destroyed that I think makes the Union liable to these 104 players for these disclosures and therefore likely to lose a lawsuit if any or all of these players choose to persue one.
Let’s Now Take A Look At John’s White Whales. How much better would the Giants be now then they were in the first 103 games of the season if the Giants had traded Tim Alderson and Scott Barnes to the Washington Nationals for Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson?
In 474 PAs Lewis and Schierholtz combined to produce a WAR of 1.1 while Dunn produced a WAR of 1.3 (yes his defense is that bad) in 436 PAs. Adam Dunn therefore would have produced a WAR of about 0.2 more the Lewis and Schierholtz if he had their 436 PAs as a Giant. However, while 103 games have been played todate only 59 remain which means we should expect a net gain of about 0.1 Wins from this if we had made this trade instead.
http://www.fangraphs.com/myteam.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=n&type=6&season=2009&month=0&u=7161
Guess what? Nick Johnson’s defense has been so bad that inspite of his offense he has not produced at a higher WAR relative to PAs then Ryan Garko or Travis Ishikawa. Johnson provided 1.2 WAR in 424 PAs, Garko 1.1 WAR in 288 PAs, and Ishikawa 1.0 WAR in 241 PAs. Therefore Nick Johnson’s (like Ryan Garko’s) value to the Giants is in upgrading what the Giants got from Aurilia and Guzman in the first 103 games over the remaining 59 games.
Nick Johnson (again like Ryan Garko) would add about 0.7 Wins to Giants over these remaining 59 games.
http://www.fangraphs.com/myteam.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=n&type=6&season=2009&month=0&u=7161
Bottom line, John’s White Whales would only project to add about 0.8 Wins to the Giants over the remaining 59 Games while Sabean’s actual trades project to add about 2.5 Wins! John, the fundemental flaw in your thinking 9and in those that agree with you) is that you do seem to understand that preventing a run with good defense is just as valuable as scoring a run with good offense.
The “9″ before “and” after “thinking” was suposed to be a “(” but wasn’t due to a “shift” fail on my part.
In addition, I ment to type “do not see to understand” and somehow left out the “not”.
this is why i hate statheads
this isnt fucking stratomatic…this is baseball
Continue To Enjoy Your Ignorance.
not ignorance…fact
a team is much more than numbers
you statheads take all the joy out of the game
Unc Joe,
Baseball is a game that has been over analyzed by statistics…and I learned many years ago to sort out comments by those who have never played the game at a high level. Sure…many stats are meaningful…others are for armchair geeks….looking for more charts to add to their laptops.
I am an Ish fan….and he needs the stress of a pennant drive under his belt. He has all the tools to be a real good player…and is already one of the better 1b’s in the league. Give him a chance to further his progress. This is why I hate the Garko deal…which in my mind is almost worse than the Sanchez deal. At least we needed a solid 2b.
Unfortunately, Giantsrainman decided to drop trouw for all of us @ OBM.
I believe that the Kids on the Gigantes are better than the Vets…and I say let the kids bring this home. They all grew up together in Fresno…and they have a strong unity…unlike the vets.
Velez could be a diamond in the rough…if only given the chance.
Watching the game last night, it was Velez, Ishikawa, and Lewis who did not completely unimpress. Not because they are great players. Or good players. Or, even average players. Or, that they did really anything outstanding. (I was much more impressed by the A’s Tommy Everidge’s blast off Papelbon in Fenway in his MLB debut)But because they seem to be improving. They are playing better than they were then when they first got here, and with new inexperienced players with fewer than 1000 plate appearances, which is all one can reasonably expect.
Unlike Bengie Molina, Rich Aurilia, Edgar Rentafatso and the rest of the cast of Cocoon, they offer hope of improvement, not dismal and insanely maddening baseball version of Groundhog Day that we get from watching Randy Winn play pee-wee golf against LH pitching, or Aaron Rowand launching t-shirt cannon throws into the camera wells.
As for Ishikawa, he has the physical tools, and to watch him around the bag, he is athletic, strong, but most importantly, he has good baseball instincts and is beginning to emanate at least the beginnings of physical presence around the bag. He wears the “don’t even think about fucking with me kind of Nuschler face” well. Frandsen tried, and failed. Moreover, even if it is only for amusement purposes, it is so much better than watching Rich “The Wine Sipper” Aurilia slouching around the infield and having senior moments in the batters box.
Moreover, something else that is different: His pitch recognition, his biggest obstacle, appears to be improving.
I have no facts to back me up on this, but from what I have seen, he seems to be getting better at recognizing that one nemesis pitch from RHP, that keeps him from being good; breaking shit at the back foot.
Therefore, there is progress. Not that its of any quantifiable value, but he got signed out of high school, by the same scout, Matt Woodward, who signed Lincecum out of Washington four years later.
Having said that, the upcoming 28 games commencing August 10th will tell us most of what we need to know. If they demonstrate winning baseball for those 28 games, then we will know that they are legitimate contenders this season.
Whether Sandoval can hold up is questionable. He is not good on the road (a 350-point difference in OPS) and he has been OPSing at only .731 since the All Star Break.
And apparently I am not the only one who was critical of his weight. Krukow laid into him a couple of nights ago on this very subject. Particularly in view of the hot, sweaty fields and unfriendly environs of the upcoming swing through the Midwest and East Coast, his conditioning is likely to play a significant role in his performance.
It could all get very interesting or it could be just a redux of the prior 5 years. We will know in the next few weeks.
Dude…back off Unc Joe.
Not only is he correct…but, he is a legend on this site.
Sorry, but Uncle Joe is wrong. Further, I am hardly a stathead (just ask the folks at McCovey Chronicles were I am frequently accussed of being too old school) however I do see value in stats. Finally , I have played baseball at a pretty high level (college in the 70’s).
I do not wish to verify with McCovey Chronicles about your sentiments. All I can say is…..you have forgotten much about the game you once played. I too played college ball in the late 70’s…and there are many facets of the game that stats cannot explain. I do not doubt your enthusiasm for the Gigantes or baseball in general…but, there is no need to get personal with Unc Joe or any of us for that matter. +mia gets away with it…because of his eloquence and style…and becuase half the people who go to OBM do it to read +mia’s rants and daily insights. Sorry John…no offense intended.
One thing we all agree upon…is that Sabean aka “the idiot”…is a clueless wonder.
I admit…I like to go out on a limb…and tell it like I see it. I watch a ton of baseball on MLB…and I think I have a good feel of other teams and players…not necessarily the Gigantes…as I have not watched much of them the past couple weeks. I did catch the game tonight…and I still feel the Kids are better than the Vets on the Gigantes, From my standpoint…the Kids have only upside to offer…at very little cost. That’s why I think “the Idiot” has once again failed to deliver. Bringing in two Vets…with major downside…and downgrade from the status quo.
By the way…Unc Joe is not wrong.
I was’t the one the get personal first. Uncle Joe called me a stat rather then sticking to facts and opinions. i just responded in kind.
I have forgotten very little and I too watch a ton of baseball (I am retired) including all the other teams not just the Giants. That said, I am not an old dog that can not learn new tricks. I have learned that these stats do have value and that they are worth understanding and paying attention to. They are not the end all and scouting still has much value that I think these stats will never be able to replace. That said, Freddy Sanchez is a more valuable player to the Giants then Adam Dunn would have been and both stats and the Giants scouts agree with me in this accessment.
stats do have value…on that i do agree
however, when you only post stats for reasoning why or why not a trade should be made, or a player should be played….you are missing the entire point of the game
if one goes by stats alone, a guy like eckstein has no biz in the game, and matt palmer should never be a successful pitcher
yet both statements are untrue
the game is both physical and mental….which is why players go on streaks and slumps
and really…when you spend all this time playing stratomatic with real people…it hurts the game
shoot….even moneyball doesnt rely solely on stats
only a legend here, cuz i keep getting kicked off the giants main site for speaking the truth
I don’t have anywhere near the kind of confidence in your stats as you do. I know, KNOW, that 24 home runs as opposed to 6 is a huge difference. Adam Dunn or Josh Willingham (I never advocated trading for Nick Johnson) would have an enormous impact on the last 50 games for the Giants, regardless of your complicated computations.
There can be no doubt that Adam Dunn at first base for the last 50 games, as opposed to Ryan Garko and Travis Ishikawa, would be worth more than .8 wins. I don’t need a formula to tell me that.
As an aside, I’d mention that the Giants are leading the world in strikeouts, amking infield defense even less important then it’s normal irrelevance.
“………………complicated computations”
Complicated computations??!!! The fucking links to that bullshit shadetree arithmetic-for-pussies web site is illegible and longer than a Randy Winn slump. It’s a fucking Ouija board for pin-dicks. And the fucking knucklehead won’t even go to the lazy ass effort to properly code his link.
I don’t know why you humor twat waffles like that.
Grow Up.
Look. I’ll ask the nice pill lady to add some more school paste to your dinner tray if you promise to leave those of us in street clothes alone.
Classic dude.
No , just a fool that only knows how dish insults rather then facts.
+mia,
twat waffles…Nice.
With Regards To Josh Willingham we agree. Josh has been worth 2.7 WAR todate in 287 PAs. However if I am reading the tea leaves right the Nationals were not willing to trade him.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2103&position=OF
With regards to Adam Dunn we just disagree. In my judgement his defense is indeed that bad at either 1B or the outfield.
Lastly, I do have to acknowledge that I am now in agreement with you on Edger Renteria. He does have the excuse of playing injured (like Rowand did last year), he has still been an upgrade over what we got from SS last year, but all that said there were indeed better and cheaper middle infield options last off season that the Giants would of been better of signing then Edger Renteria.
Trying to stay mostly out of this conversation, but the point I want to bring up with Renteria, is even if we wanted him, we could have gotten him for way cheaper. Sabean completely misplayed the market, signing Renteria early before everyone’s price dropped in half. That was the biggest problem – even if Sabean had targetted someone else, he probaly would have signed them early and grossly overpaid anyways.
I am not a believer that those stats reflect reality. Different leagues…different stadiums…not to mention different styles of being pitched to. When you’re on a team like the Indians or Nats…you’ll see better pitches to hit…than if you’re on the Gigantes. 25 hrs in Philly,Cinn, or Milwaukee = 10-15 @ Pac Bell. So these stats need an * by them.
I am not a Dunn fan…but, he would be a positive addition regardless of any WAR stats. Garko has done nothing so far…and will continue to add nothing. Why anyone expects anything from him is a surprise. You need to watch the other teams play on a regular basis…and get your head out of your laptop once in a while(Giantsrainman…not you John). Ish has been constantly improving since June 1…and always brings his A game in the field. I don’t care about all the hype surrounding Garko…he is a downgrade…as you’ll all witness the remainder of this season.
Sanchez cannot even suit up…and most likely will never be 100% for 2009…so a healthy Uribe is better…again a downgrade.
The only way we win…is if the kids play out of their heads.
Stay hot Velez.
That really is about all the analysis one needs to sum up the utter worthlessness of these two transactions.
I find it amazing that when relatively knowledgeable baseball folks can fathom this with two eyes fairly easily, that there are always a couple of little math club drop outs who not only want to argue against round planets, but do so with an arrogance matched only by their ignorance.
Frankly, most of the time, they’re just fucking trolls looking for a little attention from somebody other than the pill lady.
If the refusal or the inability of the Giants to add some power and on base percentage to a collection of position players more suitable to beer league recreational ball isn’t taking the wind out of your sails, and if the waste of $65million in payroll doesn’t get you down, than a quick perusal of the upcoming schedule should certainly not bring you any additional piece of mind. It is a given that the Giants cannot hit. What is worse, is that the numbers Johns cites above are combined home and away.
Their away numbers including their away series against the lowly Pirates, Nationals, A’s, Mariners, D-backs, and Padres is like this.
OPS of .638 while allowing an OPS of .735. And against the likes of the above they have scored less than 3.5 runs per game while allowing over 4. Even in games where Lincecum starts, the Giants are only 6-5 on the road.
The Giants have a little fewer than 60 games remaining. All but 9 against the Padres, and 9 against the D Backs are against teams scrambling for a playoff spot. The easy part of their schedule is over. The only other team out of the playoff chase as of today is Cincinnati.
Starting August 10, they play 3 games against the Dodgers, a day off, then 11 consecutive Road games in New York, Cincinnati and four more in Colorado. They return for three against the Snakes and then 3 more against the Rockies. Then its straight off to Philadelphia after a travel day for 3 than onto Milwaukee for three more to end a string of 19 road games and 9 home games, 6 of which are against the Dodgers and Rockies.
That will take the Giants to September 7th when there will be 25 games left in the season (13 against the Dodgers, Cubs, Rockies) which ends with 3 games in October with 3 games in San Diego where the Giants are winless this year.
To expect Lincecum, Cain and a Panda who OPS 350 points less on the road than at home (.759 to 1.109) to carry this team to the promised land is to hope for too much, never mind expect too much.
Obviously the Giants were looking at the schedule too. Hence the half-assed, half-measures at the deadline. If Ryan Klesko Garko Hillenbrand and Sancho Panza Sanchez don’t cut it, they can be “adios muchachos” at the end of the season for little more than beer money. The unwillingness to go “all in” like the Red Sox, Cardinals and a couple of others should be more than ample evidence that the Giants are not serious about this year, but not unserious enough to let go of a couple of pretty nice prospects either.
This is called living life in the center divider. While you may not get run over by the guys, you’re looking at in the rear view mirror, you’re going to eventually get wiped out by oncoming traffic.
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back …. All is not lost…
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back …. All is not lost…
Well, I’m a stathead, but mia+ is right – it just proves the point of how lousy Sabean is at making trades.
Just a couple of thoughts – I myself am always appalled, looking at the box for any game, at how few walks the Giants draw. Just getting that to be average would make a big difference. I know that a walk isn’t really as good as a hit, but seeing one or two per game is pretty pathetic.
The second is I’m surprised that Nick Johnson can even find the field anymore – the poster child for time on the DL. I like him, but that would have been a really bad trade.
Coming into the conversation late, but I feel obligated to address the following point (since I brought it up recently):
“And as for all of the questions about whether Bochy should bat Molina cleanup, we’re really looking at a moot point, aren’t we? If not Molina, then who? The Panda needs to bat third, he is clearly our best hitter. It hardly matters where anyone else hits, they’re all essentially the same player. Molina probably does have the most power, outside of Sandoval. But, really, what does it matter? A perfectly maximized lineup would score about .1 runs more than a lineup made up by throwing darts.”
Of course you’re right, John. In the grand scheme of things, our W-L record is very unlikely to be affected by batting Bengie cleanup. Our other options are also…limited, to say the least. It’s really not a big deal in that way. Rather, the way I see it, it’s a symptom of an organization that, from top to bottom, still hasn’t fully grasped the importance of getting on base. It blows my mind that someone as bad at not making an out as Molina is highly valued in our organization.
I like Molina, and he’s contributed his share the last couple years, but he’s very obviously declined significantly at this point. Playing C he really doesn’t have to do much with the bat to add value, so I’m ok running him out there, but in the 4th spot? Really? That’s the best plan we can come up with, hope the worst hitter in the league at not making an out will produce at a high level for us? .269 OBP as of right now. How many times does Bengie lead off the 2nd inning (because our offense sucks and goes 1-2-3 in the 1st)? It just frustrates me that the Giants still don’t properly value OBP. It’s such a basic concept.
I have an idea to float out here, just to see what people think. What about moving Sandoval to C full time? The way Molina has been hitting, a Uribe/Sandoval combo is significantly more valuable than a Sandoval/Molina combo. Of course, C is a hard position and Sandoval hasn’t really played it this year, and it’s also reasonable to expect it to hurt Sandoval’s production with the bat some. But I dunno, the way Bengie’s playing…I think it might give us a substantial upgrade.
“And as for all of the questions about whether Bochy should bat Molina cleanup, we’re really looking at a moot point, aren’t we? If not Molina, then who? ”
Someone who isn’t the slowest player in baseball may be a better choice. Batting a double play machine behind our only on base guy seems like a mistake to me. Somehow he’s only got 10 this year(mostly because his G/F is .43), but that’s gonna balloon to a Benito Santiago type level soon, and that’s a baaad thing.