Joe Sheehan is probably gonna be pissed that I am cutting and pasting almost his entire article today, but, Jesus Fucking Christ, I feel like Nostradamus:
…. Let’s get something out of the way: as currently constituted, the Giants are unlikely to make the playoffs. True, they have played well so far, thanks in no small part to a devastating one-two rotation punch and a surprisingly strong bullpen. The Giants are very, very good at preventing the other team from scoring, and that’s the skill that has enabled them to be a factor in this summer’s playoff chase.
…. What they can’t fake is an offense, which has been hideously bad. The team is 15th in the NL in runs scored, and 16th in Equivalent Average with a .241 mark that’s seven points worse than the Padres. They have one good bat in Pablo Sandoval, one average one in Aaron Rowand, and seven guys who can’t hit.
…. they can acquire and play just about any player in baseball because they have so few players who can’t be benched.
…. the other factor in play here is that the Giants have significantly outperformed their expected record, not just from the preseason, but what you’d expect from what they’ve done on the field. The Giants have scored 33 more runs their their third-order prediction, and allowed 17 fewer. That’s a five-win swing, right now the difference between second place the wild-card chase and nowhere.
…. it brings up the question of how good the team really is, and how good it can be? If the Giants are “only” a .500 team, improving them to .550 is harder than if they’re a .530 team. The Playoff Odds Report is seeing this problem as well, giving the Giants a mere 9.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, a small chunk of which is their chance to win the division.
…. With that in mind, should the Giants bother to make a big move? As mentioned, their top-heavy farm system is a challenge, as teams want their very best prospects, and four of those guys are among the top 60 prospects in the game. Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Angel Villalona, Tim Alderson… these guys are the core of a championship team down the line. Add in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and you can see the Giants playing deep into October in the not-too-distant future.
On the other hand, four of those guys are pitchers, and one, by definition, will be the fourth starter in that rotation. The Freak isn’t tradeable, and Matt Cain’s contract and jump in performance make him a fixture. Bumgarner is ahead of Alderson by any evaluation, and I haven’t mentioned Sanchez, himself an incredible talent, in this paragraph yet.
Alder
son could be in the major leagues a year from now, and he’ll be a top-40 prospect on next year’s list. He is, however, a level back of the guys who will be one-two-three at that time. As Kevin Goldstein said, “His ceiling is nowhere near that of teammate Madison Bumgarner, but he could be closer to the major league rotation.” That actually could be a selling point in a deal, as GMs trading away veteran talent like to do so for players who are close to the majors. Alderson could be starting for his new team next summer, providing the local fans proof positive of the value of what could be an unpopular deal.
…. What your team needs more than anything else is guys who don’t make outs. Nick Johnson doesn’t make outs to the tune of a .410 OBP. There’s not much power left in his bat, and he runs poorly, but you’d be picking up 15-20 runs at first base over the rest of the season, with no loss in defensive performance compared to Travis Ishikawa, himself a good glove man. That’s about two wins. The Nationals also have two left fielders better than Randy Winn or Fred Lewis, one expensive, one less so. Josh Willingham is having a nice season, but it’s Adam Dunn that you want. A poor left fielder, Dunn hits more than enough to make up for that, and it’s not as if Lewis is a tough act to follow out there. Even if Dunn asks for a trade this winter, so what? Let him walk as a free agent and take back the $10 million you would have owed him. For now, bank the 20-25 extra runs he’ll be worth and start taking yourself seriously as a contender.
First, I'm sending Joe an email apology for posting pretty much his whole fucking article.
Second, Joe only affirms that I have been right about the fact that Adam Dunn is the single most effective player available to solve the Giants offensive woes, and he has been SINCE THE END OF LAST SEASON!!!!!!!
My thanks go out to Joe for confirming that I –in fact– am not an idiot. “A poor left fielder, Dunn hits more than enough to make up for that.” Yes, I have only been saying that for going on seven months now.
So, trading for Dunn, (as opposed to signing him as a free agent, which would have been the absolutely best possible move the team could have made last off-season), is, in point of fact, pretty much the only move the team could or should make, even though Brian Sabean should be fired for coming to this conclusion now, because the facts were there, for all of us to see, in November of last year.
As an alternative, Josh WIllingham, simply because he's just a bit younger, would be equally valuable to a team that has pretty much the very worst offense you can possibly have and still talk about contending.
[...] fake is an offense, which has been hideously bad. The team is 15th in the NL in Read more at http://www.onlybaseballmatters.com/archives/2009/07/28/unbelievable-but-true/ Tags: buster posey, for, Giants « Acepta Pfizer pagar multa récord de 2 mil 300 [...]
sabean doesnt want to be the gm of the giants after this season
[...] The Giants are very, very good at preventing the other team from scoring, and that’s the skill click for more var _wh = ((document.location.protocol=='https:') ? "https://sec1.woopra.com" : [...]
John is going to have to have a …Unbelievable but true part deux
I think the Giants just got Sanchez for Alderson, whom BP has rated as your 4th best prospect and best RHP in your system. If true I’m stunned. That’s a really bad trade.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/giants/detail?&entry_id=44521
Maybe Sabean knows something about Alderson that nobody else does, but I would have thought he could have done much better than Sanchez. Martinez, Willingham, Dunn all come to mind.
but wow
this trade is a complete fucking disgrace and should never have been allowed. How much longer is Giants ownership going to allow this jackass to destroy this franchise? 1 step forward and two back. Sabean has to go, its no longer tolerable.
…did we really just trade alderson for freddy sanchez’s bum knee….
So I’ve got a couple of hours to take in the Giants game on tv. They are of course up to their old tricks of not hitting, botched base-running and hacking at slop in the dirt against the Indianapolis Indians of the International League.
This is the last game of a three game interleague series between the NL West and the International League West. The format was introduced by Future Commissioner In Waiting, Leisure Suit Larry Baer and trusted valet, Brian Boitano Sabean. The Indianapolis nine is hoping to avoid a sweep by the Giants, a perennial power in winter ball, where their position players not named Sandoval play in the National Beep Baseball Association
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it is scoreless after seven innings and in spite of Cain’s superb pitching performance the lords and ladies herded into the snob seats, are resembling more and more cud-chewing cows, munching on regurgitated garlic hay. As the camera pans the powdered wig set, it seems to confirm the thought that have in fact, been rendered semi-comatose by the methane gases emanating from the position player section of the dugout. Motionless, they wait in stupefying anticipation of the next inning-ending double play.
Seriously though. The Pirates have gutted a previously listless, talentless team, by offing just about every single fungible part of their lineup. The fact that two of the guys who were touted to be mainstays in their rotation (Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny) were in the minors until Snell got sent packing to Seattle earlier today, ought to tell you this team is the biggest laughingstock in MLB next to the Nationals and Padres. And the Giants have scored a grand total of 12 runs in 55 innings across 5 plus games. Thats less than 2 runs per 9 innings if you’re keeping score at home.
And what pray tell, is the solution? In view that Shierholtz is on the DL, Rowand should be, and Barry Zito can hit righthanders better than Randy Winn? Why of course! Trade for Freddy Sanchez. Who is little better than Juan Uribe, costs as much as Renteria almost, and whose health and resultant performance is going to hell in a handbasket faster than goose shit through a teflon funnel since 2006! Bad knees. Eye Injuries. Bad back and a slash line that is not much better than Jose Uribes:
Uribe: BA .286/ 4HR/21RBI/.315OBP/.433SLG/748OPS
Sanchez BA .296/6HR/34RBI/.334OBP/.442SLG/776OPS
And Sanchez had almost 50% more Plate Appearances to accumulate his counting numbers. And he is injured to the point the reported trade is conditional on a physical exam. This guy is more of a candidate for the DL than an integral piece of a championship run. This guy is Rich Aurilia waiting to happen. And it his knees that are causing him problems ever since he moved to second base. Sorry. I saw the guy last year and the year before, and Robinson Cano, nor even Orlando Hudson he is not. No hit, no field and just marginally better than Juan Uribe, who doesn’t even make the roster on a genuine playoff team.
The ability of Baer, Sabean and the sycophantic media and bloggers to continue to bamboozle enough people to put up with this shit continues to amaze. How fortunate the Giants are to be in the same market as the Raiders, Warriors, A’s and Forty Niners.
As Pearl Bailey broke out into stunned laughter after the 69 Mets took down the Orioles in the World Series:
“Amazing! simply amazing!”
While Sabean would take a huge load of justifiable flak for trading for a guy he potentially could have had as a free agent — IF HE’D PICKED UP THE PHONE AND EVER CONTACTED ADAM DUNN OR HIS AGENT, which he did not!!!!! — the move would still be so valuable for the Giants that I might consider taking back some of the things I’ve said about Sabean.
His weak excuse for not looking at him in free agency was that he was a poor defender; they just traded for Garko to replace Travis Ishikawa, so that excuse seems even less plausible than it did before. I honestly think there’s a reasonable chance Brian Sabean didn’t know who Adam Dunn was before people started yelling at him for letting him slip away. The guy doesn’t have a computer, after all.
dan
the team’s offense if horrible only partially because of the players.
it is mostly due to the org philosophy which led to the hiring of mellon head in the first place
benching nate for most of the first 2 months, platooning ti and richie at first, making guys like kfran prove themselves in short stints, thinking that pcl numbers will translate to the mlb….stuff like that
i dont care who this team trades for or plays…unless that person is a clone of barry bonds (who could teach every fucking coach in this org a thing or two about the game) this team is doomed to continue floundering on the offensive side
oh, and so long to the unit…we hardly knew ye
This is probably one of the most damning arguments for the removal of Brian Sabean. This, just has to be the last poke in the eye.
There is no way Sabean can allow a trade for Dunn in exchange for one of the Giants top prospects, to take place. It could be his career death warrant. Even in unambitious San Francisco, where the sycophants give their GM and the ownership group a pass on everything as long as the shiny trinket, illusion of contention, trading a highly publicized prospect, for Dunn at this point would certainly bring out all the anti-Sabean refuse from the past. Especially if Dunn failed to be the second coming of Barry Bonds.
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back …. Unbelievable but true…
Baseballbriefs.com tracking back …. Unbelievable but true…
lol UJM – way to give him a full 4 AB’s
your immediate upgrade at first went 0fer tonite
proving once again that numbers on a piece of paper dont mean shite
According to the Wikipedia, Willingham is in fact several months older than Dunn.