In an ugly, error-filled game, Tim Lincecum failed to beat the worst team in baseball, as the Giants lost to the Nationals to fall back to .500. After 50 games, the team has scored and allowed almost the exact same number of runs, and without a major trade, will be lucky to maintain their current pace for much longer. No pitcher can carry the load of having to be perfect every game, just ask Johan Santana, who has been given the worst run support imaginable the last season and a half. The Giants pitching staff has been dealing with this kind of pressure for a couple of seasons now, and there’s not much real hope for the rest of ‘09.
By the way, for everyone who keeps insisting that the Dodgers can be had, they’ve allowed almost the exact same number of runs the Giants have. Of course, they’ve also scored 100 more runs. Not to belabor the obvious, but that means they are outscoring the Giants by 2 full runs per game. Just in case you haven’t had your coffee yet, let me elaborate…. if the Giants traded Travis Ishikawa straight up for Albert Pujols, they wouldn’t make up that difference. If they traded Ishikawa for the 2003-05 version of Bonds they wouldn’t score two more runs per game, although they’d probably come close. 
My point is that the real contenders are the teams that are outscoring their opponents. Forget about won loss records, just look at ESPN’s upgraded standings page, and check out the runs differential column. That’ll tell you everything you need to know. 50 games in, we know who we are. 50 games is a large enough sample. I just read Verducci explaining that the number of teams who’ve made the playoff after being five games below .500 at the start of June is three:
…. Here are the facts. There have been 104 teams to make the playoffs in the 13 full seasons of the wild-card era. Exactly three of them, or 2.9 percent, were worse than five games below .500 when June began. Here are the three outliers:
1. 2005 Astros (19-32 start; 89-73 final record).
2. 2007 Cubs (22-29; 85-77).
3. 2007 Yankees (22-29; 94-68).
That’s just another way of saying the same thing. Over the course of a season, the teams that outscore their opponents by the largest margins will be the ones that –with the occasional exception–make the playoffs. So here’s a different way of looking at those three teams, looking at where they were on the morning of June 1st of those seasons:
2005 Astros 18-32 -48 runs differential Expected Won-Loss 18-32
2007 Cubs 22-29 +11 runs differential Expected Won-Loss 27-24
2007 Yankees 22-29 +24 runs differential Expected Won-Loss 29-22
You wanna know how Houston made up that deficit? They outscored their opponents by 132 runs over the last 112 games of the season, which is normally a full seasons’ worth of extra runs for a contending team. In fact, only one team in the NL outscored their opponents by more than 132 runs that year, the St. Louis Cardinals, who didn’t make the Series in what was widely considered an upset. But, from June 1st on, the Astros were the better team. Over those last 112 games, the Cardinals runs differential was only 116. The Astros won 5 more games than the Cards over that stretch, and then won the NL pennant before falling to the White Sox in the Serious.
As of today, no team is significantly outperforming their expected winning percentage, a couple should have a few more wins, notably, the Nationals, who should have about four more, and the Tampa Bay Rays, who are also about four or five wins worse than they should be. Most teams are right where they should be, which is another way of saying this:
The Giants have no chance of competing for a championship this season.
The minor league system has been restocked, and there should be help, in the form of real hitters, coming up next season, and hopefully we will see the Giants become a team that has a steady supply of good, young talent in the future. It’s important that Brain Sabean remembers that championships are built, not bought. He knows that the Yankees recent dynasty –contrary to popular belief– was built upon the nucleus of home grown talent, by the maturation of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie WIlliams, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera, who all came up through the Yankees system. That Yankee team was built upon that core group of All Stars, who were then surrounded by key free agents and savvy veterans; think along the lines of David Wells, David Cone, Wade Boggs, Paul O’Neil, Scott Brosius…. those kinds of guys. In fact, it was only when the Yankees began to swing for the fences, signing the best free agents out there, when they began to look like an All Star team, that the dynasty started to falter.
The Giants should be sellers, not buyers. They should be looking to unload the collection of overpaid mediocrities masquerading as middle of the order talent. They should be looking to trade Winn, and Rowand and Molina, and Renteria, and collect even more minor league talent, young talent. They should wash their hands of these money sucking role players, and start looking to 2010, because none of these players will be around when Giants players are pouring champagne on each other.
The Giants have two studs right now, two. Cain and Lincecum. Pablo Sandoval looks pretty good, albeit a little rough around the edges. Perhaps Burriss grows into an everyday second baseman. Fred Lewis will be 29 years old at the start of 2010, and he’s done exactly, what? Maybe Jonathan Sanchez will be part of a contending Giants team. Maybe. Who else in yesterday’s lineup will be?
The Giants need three or four elite players to come up through the system in the next two seasons. A first baseman, Posey, and an outfielder or two would be perfect. Then the players that Sabean is so fond of would actually have real worth. Signing the Aaron Rowands and the Randy Winns of the baseball world would be a fine strategy if the Giants got 90 home runs and 250 runs batted in from their first baseman, left fielder and their catcher.
Trading anybody younger than 28 years old in an effort to make the playoffs this season would be a huge mistake, because you’d be betting half your stack knowing that you’re a 10-1 underdog. Trading a player as valuable as Matt Cain would be catastrophic.
UPDATE: I just have to….
Many major media outlets continue to insist that the Yankees surge to the best record in baseball is somehow tied to A-Rod’s return, or to the terrific defense they’ve been getting from Melky Cabrera and Mark Texeira, or from their pitching staff finally coming together. Here’s none other than OBM supporter Peter Gammons:
…. Recently, the Yankees have gone on a big-time roll and taken first place in the AL East, all after the return of Alex Rodriguez. However, the key difference hasn’t been offense, although the tandem of A-Rod and Mark Teixeira is similar to what David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez once were with Boston. With A-Rod and Teixeira in the order, the Yankees’ runs per game have only risen slightly. The Yankees’ ERA, though, has dropped by more than two runs, as CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain and Co. have come together as a power rotation.
The Yankees’ rotation is made up of hard throwers who get minimal hard contact, and put little pressure on the defense. Teixeira, the owner of two Gold Gloves, has made the infield much better, and Melky Cabrera’s defensive matrix is the best of any major league center fielder.
None of that is true. Well, it’s not that that’s not true, it just overstates the case. The Yankees were 14-15 on May 8th, the day A-Rod hit the first pitch he saw for a three-run homer. In those 29 games, they had a run differential of -16, having allowed a staggering 178 runs in those 29 games, over 6 per game. But they’d allowed 44 of those runs in just three games, the three games Chien-Ming Wang started before they put him on the DL. Take those games out, and the Yankees gave up 134 runs in 26 games, or just over 5 runs per game. Over their last 23 games, they’ve allowed 91 runs, around 4 runs per game. This improvement, in fact, can and should be attributed to better defense, and the pitchers starting to reach mid-season form.
This is why Brian Cashman signed Burnett, Sabathia and Texiera. Those players are delivering.
16 Backtalkers
[...] Baseball Matters notes how tough it will be for the Giants to catch the Dodgers: By the way, for everyone who keeps insisting that the Dodgers can be had, they’ve allowed almost [...]
I hope this “one player away” or “add a bat” meme that shows up everywhere will finally go away. A poster at McChronic noted that the Giants starting lineup is worth 1.8 WAR while Adrian Gonzalez is worth 3.0 WAR so far. We need a patient, long-term approach to re-building, and not some spastic Sabean knee-jerk Accardo-for-Hillenbrand nonsense. If we play .500 for the year I think that will be an impressive improvement and a good foundation for the next few years while our youngsters in the pipleline get a chance to make the bigs.
We are, nevertheless, one GM away. No? Is there anybody out there who thinks it would be a good idea to put GWB in charge of fixing the economy?
Boy, a new GM would be nice. I have this terrible fear that Neukom likes Sabes and wants to keep him.
Well, you can read about Bill Neukom here.
Here’s a little morsel from the new Giants “Genius”. (and people wonder why I think these supposed “new Giants” are the same as the “old Giants”)
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“You don’t have to accept this but I think Manny Ramirez is an American League player. You’ve got to play defense. He can’t catch a cold in the field. You’ve got to run the bases in the National League. This is not an easy left field here; it’s a tough left field. We just didn’t think he was a fit for us.”
————————————————————————-
Of course. We are all morons. Totally forgot the Giants were in the National League. Totally forgot that Manny is one of the top 5 players in the Game today. Forgot that he led the FUCKING DODGERS to a Division Championship and will do the same this year and probably next year as well. But at least the Giants can win the Self-Righteous Indignation Division. Hope everybody remembers that when they pony up for 12 dollar burgers and 14 dollar beers to help pay for the contracts of Zito, Rowand and Renteria.
Not that I’m even a little bit tied to defensive stats, and neither should anybody, but just for amusement here’s a comparison
Fred Lewis FP% .959 Zone Rating 14.055
Mann-Ram FP% .974 Zone Rating 16.711
Neukom watches too much ESPN. He needs less bow-tie
Aside from a couple of things that made a ringing sound in my head, this is pretty much spot on.
John,
Spot on…great post.This is deja vu all over again. Every year around this time…same story….same discussion.
Build from within…develop young position players….rebuild….just not in Sabeans methodology.
I agree with many who have said and posted this before…that the Gigantes fans would be willing to support a yound team in the rebuilding process. At least there would be upside with this strategy. But NO…there is never follow through and sticking to this plan.
It has been said by many and I will not belabor the point…that Sabeans philosophy of bringing in old veterans on the downward slide at top dollar is not working…..and will never work. If ownership cannot figure this out…then this is what we will continue to be served.
I have said many times, that in my industry, you would be out of business long ago operating like the Gigantes. Until fans vote their displeasure with their dollars…change will be slow. Why Sabean still has a job…and I mean anywhere…is beyond me.
Yes. Posey and a pair of good (not necessarily great) outfielders would go a long way probably. This still depends on multiple ifs, no matter how solid of a plan this is, given the current disaster.
1. No guarantee on Posey. None. Lot of hope and probability, but nothing shown at MLB level yet. For every Mauer that pops on the scene, there are multiple more failures of touted prospects. Nevertheless, given the anemic state of the Giants, something is better than nothing. Paradoxically, the shorter the amount of time that Posey spends in the minor league system the better. The Giants have been ruining position player prospects since the current management group took over at the end of 92.
2. In theory, the draft is the way to go. Everybody in MLB knows that. Hell, anybody that has managed to avoid less than 10 minutes of sportstalk radio knows that. The failure of the Giants is the execution of that strategy. I will believe all the hype about Villalona, Gillispie ad nauseum when I see it. And I haven’t seen any of it at the big league level yet. It is a hell of a long and improbable journey from touted prospect to hall of fame inductee. And what have the Giants produced since Matt Williams that gives you any reason to believe them now? Other than what you read and hear from mainstream media and a few seamheads and scouting reports.
3. No matter how good the draft choices the Giants have signed, (and I’m talking hitting now, not pitching) this is the same crew that for more than 20 years has not developed one single solitary impact hitter. Despite all the hype, I am skeptical of any of the guys being impact players in the future. Simply because there is no track record under the current management group of hiring the right kinds of people to run their farm system…no matter how much BA or BP want to rank their prospects. The Giants have shown a proclivity under the current ownership group to produce nothing ou
For example. A couple of years ago, Kevin Frandsen was the second coming of Robby Thompson according to all the propaganda put out by the Giants, and their mouthpieces at the Chronicle, Foxsports Bay Area, KNBR etc. I watched this guy for two innings and laughed my ass off, than shook my head in wonderment at the PR coup that Baer had pulled off. In the field the kid was not quick, he lacked speed, slow footwork, bad situational awareness and had below average athleticism for a major league infielder. As for offense, his current 0-16 before he got sent back to Fresno hopefully for the last time, is entirely indicative of what he looked like in his first few plate appearances… he looked as clumsy, and hacker-like as Lance Niekro without any of the power. He looked pathetic. And three years later the consensus is of course that he is yet another in a line of failed farm prospects. Not even going to mention all the other failures like Linden, Minor, Velez, Ellison and so forth. The list is long and old and non-distinguished.
I guess I’m saying, that I trust nothing coming out of this organization’s farm system until they actually produce something at the Major League level. Not as long as the guy who was responsible for the current situation is in charge of creating a new situation with a lot of the same cronies in place.
Show me the money or shut up. I can stand bad. The Giants were bad for years in the 70s and 80s. Everybody goes through ups and downs. Stoneham admitted they were bad, and they were bad because he lost his ass on land deals in Casa Grande and had to sell off salary, his extensive player development program in Latin America and eventually the franchise
Lurie was cautiously optimistic and built back up a pretty good farm system by the early 1980s and stuck to his plan, and when they got close, pulled off some excellent trades and free agent sidings.
What I hate about the current regime is the constant lack of accountability. The franchise crippling free agent signings and the horrible short-term and long-term impact of those multiple transactions. The Zito signing could have been survived if it was a stand alone deal possibly. But its not. The Rowand signing by itself was not enough to sink a club with a 85 million payroll, but now it is. Nor was the Renteria nor Johnson signings of and by themselves that injurious. But it is the cumulative effect of these signings coming right on the heels of the Benitez, Finley, Alfonso, Durham, Vizquel, Pyrshinski etc. deals in conjunction with the mess in the player development area, that should inspire no faith whatsoever that these folks are anywhere capable of putting a championship caliber product on the field. No matter what your inner fan tells you.
When the Giants actually produce something on the field, than I will believe it. Until then its just more Tokyo Rose and Axis Sally, based on their track record of the last 4 plus years. If the Giants front office were doing your taxes people, you would be in Leavenworth.
I’m optimstic about what we’ve done in the draft recently – I do think we’re drafting better talent in the past. That said…
“Simply because there is no track record under the current management group of hiring the right kinds of people to run their farm system”
I agree with you that this scares the crap out of me. I can’t help worrying that every second our prospects spend in the minors is one more second of terrible coaching and bad advice they’re getting. Being told things like “the first pitch is the best one to hit” and turned into the hacking jokes we’ve been producing the last few years. Much less fearful for our pitchers, but for our hitters….it worries me. Seeing a kid like Villalona with so much raw potential but still so far to go to even come close to being a major leaguer. Who’s going to help him develop properly – into the type of player we desperately need at the big league level? The same guys that have been failing miserably the last few years?
Keving Frandsen was NEVER billed as the second coming of Robby Thompson. Where did you read that?
Didn’t read it. Heard it. Along with thousands of others who were watching Giants games on Fox Sports Bay Area at the time. Kruk and Kuip when Frandsen was first called up , early in 2006. Along with Righetti. All made comparisons to Thompson. And often. Its only been recently that the superlatives have ceased. Hard to believe, but we have been looking at this guy on and off since April 2006…this was the 4th (and hopefully last) season where he has played with the big club.
Its besides the point anyway when he was first touted. The main point is that somebody of his uselessness has been part of their plans for 4 seasons. Please spare me the feigned indignation
I’m not being indignant. I’m just asking a question. Of course Kruk and Kuip are going to “upsell” anyone who comes up out of AAA. It’s their job.
I am surprised no one has mentioned how the big an issue Molina has become. He is 4-50 since May 17…and continues to bat 4th or 5th. Hitting under .120 with 2 outs and risp.When he does happen to get on…he just clogs the bases. He’s killed the Gigantes more than any player over the past month. With his lack of contribution…it’s amazing the Gigantes are even close to .500. He should’ve been dealt in the off season. The catching position should be part of the rebuilding process…sooner the better.
Yes. All of the above
In regards to this comment:
“In fact, it was only when the Yankees began to swing for the fences, signing the best free agents out there, when they began to look like an All Star team, that the dynasty started to falter.”
This is eerily reminiscent of the 1980s Yankees, who tried to build on their late 70s success by building a roster of all-stars via free agency. While they won a lot of games (they won more games in the 1980s than any other team) it only translated into one world series appearance, which ended in a loss to the Dodgers in six games. Only when they started the 90s in miserable fashion and decided to rebuild from within did they have success again.
It seems that the most reliable way to build a winner is to build mostly from within, then add the necessary pieces via free agency. People accuse big money teams of buying championships, but it’s rarely ever that simple or easy.
[...] pull ahead of a team that is that much better than we are. No way. In fact, I should’ve seen this tease for what it was all along: …. The Giants have no chance of competing for a championship this [...]