Giants Rain Man and I have doing some good back and forthing, so I thought I'd front page him. First, he said:
…. Here is how some more Projection Systems see the Giants doing in 2009.
Cairo sees 83 wins with 744 runs scored and 721 runs allowed.
Marcel sees 84 wins with 771 runs scored and 747 runs allowed.
Hardball Times sees 83 wins with 702 runs scored and 673 runs allowed.
Even Chone projects the 2009 Giants to win 77 games.
To which I replied, “Fuck the predictions, there is no way the Giants will score 100 more runs, blah blah blah…. Sabean sucks, blah blah blah, and then he came back with:
…. You need to start looking at things in terms or the end of the Magowan era and the beginninging of the Neukom era.
The following are leftover mistakes from the end of the Magowan era:
1) Barry Zito (7 years @ $126M with 5 years @ $101M to go)
2) Aaron Rowand (5 years @ $60M with 4 years @ $48M to go)
2) Dave Roberts (3 years @ $18M with 1 year @ $6.5M to go)You are wrong to think that the following are more of the same:
1) Edgar Renteria (2 years @ $18.5M)
2) Randy Johnson (1 year @ $8M)
3) Jeremy Affeldt (2 years @ $8M)
4) Bobby Howry (1 year @ 2.75M)None of these deals are long term like the leftover bad deals from the end of the Magowan era. But you are also wrong because each of these players actually improves the Giants.
You also need to open your eyes and see the plan that is already unfolding. The Giants have been rebuilding the pitching staff for awhile now and are just about done. They should be done and have an all-homegrown, quality pitching staff when the contracts of Johnson, Affeldt, and Howry expire. In addition, the Giants have also started the rebuild of the positon players and have already found one real MLB starter in Fred Lewis with a very strong likelihood that Pablo Sandoval is even better. In my judgement there is a better then 50% chance that they will also find two more real MLB starters from Travis Ishikawa, Kevin Frandsen, Manny Burriss, Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, and Eugenio Velez. The position players in the farm system are greatly improved with a good chance that another even better crop will be ready to harvest by 2011.
Finally, I believe there is a good chance the Giants will be right and quality young position players that happen to have contracts their current teams start finding hard to pay for will become available at this year’s trade deadline and in the next offseason.
Bottom line, I see the Giants future as bright and I see them as very much being on the right track with a real plan that is starting to pay off.
Well, let's see…..
First off, you're forgetting the $4.5 million each for Aurilia and Uribe, but OK, you wanna separate the free agents that way, whatever. The money is still on the books, and Sabean's the GM. What matters to me is that the amount of cash –$30 million per– these guys are earning is enough to sign real players, like, say, Mark Texeira, or Manny Ramirez, and these players are not worth the money, no matter how you look at it. They are not worth the improvement because the team is not close enough to contending to be worrying about how good their fifth fucking starter is, or how good their third reliever is, or whether they get 50 runs or 75 runs from their shortstop.
Look, the Giants scored 640 runs last season. A real contender needs to score between 750 and 800 runs. In addition, the Giants supposed strength, their pitching staff, allowed 759 runs, which was ninth best in the NL, almost exactly league-average (758). The top four teams in runs allowed were the four teams that made the playoffs, and they allowed about 100 runs fewer than the Giants did.
So, to put that into perspective, the Giants are something like a 250 runs scored differential away from being a real contender. Which, by the way, makes some of those projections look, quite frankly, ridiculous. HardBall Times thinks the Giants are gonna score 75 more runs and allow 100 fewer? How, exactly? 150 plus runs scored differential jumps are hist
oric, they pretty much happen once every twenty years. Tampa Bay made that kind of jump from 2007 to 2008, and they ran out a team just packed full of young talent, young talent that had nowhere to go but up. The Giants are still one of the oldest teams in the majors, so that'll never happen for us. NEVER.
Anyway, just for the hell of it, Mark Texeira was credited with creating 127 runs last season. The Giants first baseman of record was (according to ESPN's stats page) John Bowker, who was credited with creating 18.5 runs. Let's say for the sake of argument that the Giants got 50 runs created from first base last season. (actual stats include 44 runs scored, 14 home runs and 72 RBI, ranked last, last and second to last among NL first baseman)
So, if you signed Mark Texeira for the same $21 million per that he got from the Yankees, and just ran him out there everyday, the team might be expected to score 700 to 720 runs. A jump that would, in fact, actually put them a player or two away from having a contending-level offense. Replacing Vizquel and Burris (30 combined runs created) with Renteria (57 runs created) isn't going to do anything like that. Replacing Correia and Misch (162 innings, 107 runs allowed) with Johnson (184 innings, 92 runs allowed) isn't going to do anything like that. But, if you first landed a real impact hitter, and then wanted to make those kind of minimal upgrades, you'd be on the right track. So, unless Sandoval is poised to run at a .320/.400/.550 line with about 35 jacks, this team has wasted another $30 million dollars.
And it has done so because Sabean is blind, he is wrong, and most importantly, he has lost his ability to properly assess the team he is in charge of running. He seems to think that this team is so close to contending that he should be fine-tuning his offense, when in fact he should be saving money to acquire a big bat, or more importantly, he should have SAVED the money he threw at these stiffs so he could snatch Manny Ramirez off the table RIGHT FUCKING NOW!! He can't, though, because he already spent the money, he doesn't see the forest for the trees, there is no plan, and we are in big trouble, because this team is nowhere near contention, and our GM doesn't know it.
Have you forgotten that is a team with most of it's decent talent at or near it's peak production? The only player on the team with anything like real upside is Fred Lewis, and really, what's his peak, .290/.380/.490 15 home runs and 100 runs scored? If you got that from Lewis this season, you'd be ecstatic.
We've got $70 million dollars in salary tied up in a bunch of league average, thirty-something mediocrities. No projection is gonna change that. No project can even see that. I do, every day, watching them. There is no upside in Rowand, Winn, Molina, Aurilia, Renteria, Juan Uribe, and Dave Roberts. The only upside we have in our pitching staff is the hope that the free agents we've signed aren't out of baseball before the end of the year. Bobby Howry? You're listing Bobby Howry as a positive? We're paying $4.5 million for a 35-year old who gave up 13 home runs and allowed 44 runs in 70 innings, and you're trying to pawn that off as a sign of progress?
Only in Giants land can a 72-win team with the worst offense in baseball go out and sign two 29-year old players, a 34-year old player, a 35-year old player, and a 45-year old player and proclaim itself a contending team with a planned youth movement.
UPDATE: As if on cue, here's Lee Jenkins making it clear why I get so many people who think the Giants can contend:
… The Sandoval-Molina-Lewis trio has potential, but it's not going to scare Brandon Webb or Jake Peavy just yet. The Giants can sneak up and win this division, but only if general manager Brian Sabean adds a slugger to the mix.
The rest of the article is one perfect scenario after another, Lewis hits more home runs than he ever has in his life, Zito is comeback players of the year, Renteria isn't doing Jenny Craig commercials, Johnson's arm doesn't fall off, Lincecum still dominates, Cain finally wins, etc. When everything has to go perfect for you to still be one big bat from contending, YOU ARE NOT A CONTENDER!
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John,
I would like to first find out which details we agree on and with details we do not agree on with regards to the outlook for the Giants in 2009 as the roster stands today. If we do this I think it will then be easier to discuss our overall disagreement with regards to 2009 by focusing on the specific details of this disagreement. The following are my projections for the Giants in 2009. I am assuming you are familiar with wOBA. If you are not let me know and I will then provide the more traditional OBP and SLG as well. wRC is the estimated runs created using wOBA and Plate Appearances. DRS is an estimate of Defensive Runs Saved compared to average. FIP is Fielding Independent Performance which is an estimate of ERA adjusted for an average defense.
Rainman Projections
PositionPlayers———PlateAppearances———wOBA———wRC———DRS
RandyWinn—————————600——————-.340—–——76.5———-(7)
EdgarRenteria————-———600——-————.336—–——74.4——–(-6)
AaronRowand——————-—600———-———.341——–—77.0———(0)
FredLewis—————————–550——————-.343——–—71.6——–(1)
PabloSandoval———————550————-——-.355—–——77.3———(-3)
BengieMolina——————–—550————-——-.321——–—61.0——–(-1)
TravisIshikawa——————–500—————-—-.339——–—63.3———(0)
KevinFrandsen———————500——————–,331—–——59.8——–(4)
NateSchierholtz——————–300————-——.346——–—39.8—–—(2)
DaveRoberts————————200—————-—-.310——-—-20.2—–—(2)
SteveHolm—————————150——————–.314——-—-15.7—-—(-2)
BackupInfielders—–———–800——————–.310——–—81.4—-—(-4)
Pitchers——————-————350—————–—.163————(-9)—-—-(0)
Total———————————-6250———–———.323——–—-706———(0)
RunsScored——————————————–———————–—706
Pitchers——————————-Starts—————Innings———FIP———FIPruns
TimLincecum—————————33——————225———-3.00-———-75
RandyJohnson————————-26——————-162———-4.00————72
MattCain————-—————–—33——————-216———-3.50————84
BarryZito———————————32——————-198———-4.50————99
JonathanSanchez———————26——————-162———-4.00————72
OtherStarters————————-12———————63———-6.00————42
BrianWilson——————————-—————–—63———-4.00————28
JeromyAffeldt—————————-——————–63———-4.00————28
BobHowry—————————–———————-—63———-4.00————28
SergioRomo—————————-——-—————-63———-4.00————28
OtherReleivers————————-——————-180———-4.50————90
Total————————————–162————–1458—-——3.94—-——646
UnearnedRunsAdjustment————-——–——————————————(60)
DefenseRunsSaved————————-——–————————————–—(0)
RunsAllowed———————————-——-—–————————————-706
Please let me know where you agree and where you disagree with the details in these projections so that we can then begin our discussion of these specific disagreements.
I don’t know what wOBA or FIRP or whatever those things are.
I question the findings one their face. The Giants are still fielding a team of 30-somethings, and there is no way ALL of them will play 145 games. So, right at the start, the projections don’t work.
Renteria is 34-years old, and last year played like he was 44. Aurilia, Winn, Rowand, and Molina are also not likely to reach the AB numbers your projections show. You have 8 players with at least 500 at bats, the Giants had three guys reach that number in each of the last three seasons, because old guys miss games. The odds are great that at least two of the five guys I just listed will miss significant time.
That means that whatever is being projected from those guys will be wrong. They will not even reach the mediocrity your system predicts.
And how about your pitchers?
Sanchez is gonna be a whole run better than last year? Howry is gonna be two runs better? Zito is gonna be a run better? Johnson is gonna last the whole season?
I know every team has questions at the beginning of the year. I know every team has players get injured. But when you are trying to argue that a team is gonna make the leap from last place to contention, your argument needs to land beyond the pale. Even if every projection you show hits the nail on the head, you’re looking at a .500 team.
You’ve got Sandoval leading the team in runs created, and Frandsen and Ishikawa posting numbers that are also at or near the top. Not for nothing, but to me, that’s being more than just overly optomistic, it’s being blinded by your desire to see what you want to see.
The failure rate for Giants hitting prospects is as bad as the teams ability to keep their geriatric lineup on the field.
And, finally, for a team to really make the kind of jump you are talking about, several players need to blow up. So the Giants, to contend like you are saying, have to have every player stay healthy, and Ishikawa needs to throw out a nice .280/.360/.480 line, with 20 home runs, and Sandoval needs to play defense well enough to get 450 at bats, and he needs to pound about 30 home runs and drive in about 90, and Molina has to stay healthy for a whole season again, and Lincecum has to avoid any real letdown, and Cain has to finally win, and Zito has to bounce back, and Winn and Rowand have to stay on the field for another 145 games each…..
You see?
EVERYTHING HAS TO GO WELL FOR THE GIANTS TO GET TO 85 WINS.
706 runs? That’s the best we’re gonna do? That’s gonna push us to the NL West title?
I applaud your optimism, I don’t share it.
I didn’t realize you were this much unaware of modern stats. This statement “You have 8 players with at least 500 at bats, the Giants had three guys reach that number in each of the last three seasons, because old guys miss games.” makes it sound like you do not even understand the difference between ABs (at bats) and PAs (plate appearances) which include not just at bats, but walks, hit by pitches, sacrafice bunts, and sacrafice flys too. I have eight guys with 500 PAs not eitht guys with 500 ABs.
Last year the Giants had 4 (not 3) players with 500 PAs. Winn with 667, Rowand with 611, Molina with 569, and Lewis with 521 for a total of 2368 PAs. I am projecting a slight decline from these four with their total PAs going down to 2300 PAs with 600 each from Winn and Rowand and 550 each from Molina and Lewis.
Only in the infield did the Giants not get 500 PAs from anybody and this was not because of injuries or age but rather because they were trying alot of different players in a search of a few keepers. My assumption is that three youngsters will win and hold on to starting jobs in the infield this year with 550 PAs from Sandoval at 3B and 500 PAs each from Ishikawa and Frandsen at 1B and 2B respectively.
The only spot in the lineup your logic might apply is at SS where I project 600 PAs from Renteria while he had 547 last year and 543 in 2007. I expect more from Renteria this year because he has gotten back into shape. Could I be wrong on Renteria? Sure, but I don’t think I am.
Now let’s talk about the pitchers. You are confusing ERA with FIP.
Jonathan Sanchez last year had an ERA of 5.01 but his FIP was 3.85. The difference is a matter of luck and/or bad defensive support. My projection of a FIP of 4.00 for Sanchez is actually a slight increase.
Bobby Howry last year had an ERA of 5.35 but his FIP was 4.49. My projection of a 4.00 FIP for Howry is a projection that it will regress towards his career norms. Bobby had FIPs of 3.43 and 3.52 respectively in 2006 and 2007 and has a career FIP is 3.95. Bobby’s problems in 2008 were tied mostly to too many HRs. Howry actually had the best K/BB (59/13) year of his career in 2008 so he is showing no signs of real decline.
Barry Zito the last two years had ERAs of 4.53 and 5.15 and FIPs of 4.82 and 4.72. In 2007 homeruns were the statistical problem while in 2008 walks were the statistical problem. It is my view that the mental pressure of the contract was actually the real problem both years. It is my view that he has finally come to grips with this and it is not going to bother him from here on out. This is why I am projecting a slight improvement from Zito to a 4.50 FIP. Could I be wrong on Barry? Sure, but like Renteria I don’t think I am.
With regards to Johnson lasting “the whole season” I am projecting fewer starts in 2009 (26) then he had in 2008 (30) so I am not sure how you think I didn’t take this risk into account.
Now let’s address some mistakes you are making in characterizing my position. I am not arguing the Giants will be “real contenders” in 2009. Any contention they do in 2009 will be because of how weak the NL West as a whole is. What I am arguing is that the Giants will improve in 2009 to around .500 and are on track to becoming “real contenders” as early as 2010. This is the “plan” I speak of. This is the track I think they should be on. I am very glad that they are not trying to do everything necessary to become “real contenders” immediately because I believe such an effort would put at great risk their chances of returning to a stretch of long term contention like they enjoyed from 1997 thru 2004. This means I hope and pray every day they don’t sign Manny Ramirez and thus get off this track.
I’m content using the big three, avg/obp/slugging, OPS, win shares and runs created. Those are modern enough for me.
I know the difference between PA and AB’s.
I’m not all that interested in learning the new stuff. I feel like a lot of it is parsing minutia. I’m comfortable with my understanding of the game. I’m certainly as wrong or right as any of the “experts” who get paid to do this.
On to the debate…
I’m still unsure what your response to my position, which I stated in the earlier comment:
…. for a team to really make the kind of jump you are talking about, several players need to blow up. So the Giants, to contend like you are saying, have to have every player stay healthy, and Ishikawa needs to throw out a nice .280/.360/.480 line, with 20 home runs, and Sandoval needs to play defense well enough to get 450 at bats, and he needs to pound about 30 home runs and drive in about 90, and Molina has to stay healthy for a whole season again, and Lincecum has to avoid any real letdown, and Cain has to finally win, and Zito has to bounce back, and Winn and Rowand have to stay on the field for another 145 games each…..
If all of those things happen, the Giants will probably score 700 runs and allow 700. That’s an improvement of almost a half run in runs scored and in runs allowed, which would be terrific. But it would still require virtually everything to go right.
It seems that you are “predicting” that everything will go perfectly. Every guy will do better than he last season, or, in some cases, better than he ever has. I don’t need a bunch of numbers to tell me the odds that this will happen.
And back to my other complaint….. The cash they keep throwing on the ground for mediocrities.
Why bother overpaying players like Renteria if you are not trying to win now? Why bother bringing in a 45-year old pitcher to be a rotation anchor? What, he’s gonna help the young guys? Johnson?
Anyhow, I guess we’ve beaten this argument to death. Thanks for coming, and tell all your friends to read the asshole over at OBM…
One again you are misscharacterizing my arguement. The following quote from you just could not be further from the truth:
“It seems that you are “predicting” that everything will go perfectly. Every guy will do better than he last season, or, in some cases, better than he ever has. I don’t need a bunch of numbers to tell me the odds that this will happen.”
I am projecting less (not more) from the four returning Giants starting position players from 2008. In 2008 Randy Winn, Fred Lewis, Bengie Molina, and Aaron Rowand had a combined 2368 PAs with a combined wOBA of .338. In 2009 I am projecting that this will decline slightly to a combined 2300 PAs with a combined wOBA of .336. You can see the details for these four below.
I am not projecting anything like a career year from Edgar Renteria either. I am projecting improvement from 2008 but I am not projecting that he will return all the way to even 2006 form let alone his “career year” form of 2007. Over the last four years Renteria has had wOBAs/PAs of .319/692, .350/673, .381/543, and .308/547 respectively for an average year of .339/614. My projection for Edgar in 2009 is a slight decline from this average to .336/600 wOBA/PA.
The next three in my starting lineup (Sandoval, Ishikawa, and Frandsen) have never been starters for a full season at the MLB level before. Therefore you are correct that real risk exists on the downside of my projections but as you can see below I am hardly projecting these three to “blow up” so real upside opportunity exists here too.
Finally let me speak to you concerns about my projections for the starting rotation. Last year these five starting pitchers combined to pitch 966.67 Innings with a 3.72 FIP. My projections for 2009 see then combining to pitch 963 Innings with a 3.75 FIP. Basicly I am expecting a little more from Cain and Zito and a little less from Lincecum, Johnson, and Sanchez for a little less overall. I am not expecting anyone to as you say “blow up” but I am also not especting anyone to fall apart either.
Bottom line, the Giants do not have to exceed reasonable expectations to get to around .500 in 2009 they only have to meet them as both my projections and the majority of the publicly available projection systems clearly show.
I see I left one of your points unaddressed.
“And back to my other complaint….. The cash they keep throwing on the ground for mediocrities.
Why bother overpaying players like Renteria if you are not trying to win now? Why bother bringing in a 45-year old pitcher to be a rotation anchor? What, he’s gonna help the young guys? Johnson?”
Let me return to what you quoted from me to start this “Backtalk”.
“None of these deals are long term like the leftover bad deals from the end of the Magowan era. But you are also wrong because each of these players actually improves the Giants.”
600 PAs from Vizquel, Ochoa, Bocock and Burriss in 2008 produced a .238 wOBA and 23.9 wRC. In these same 600 PAs I am projecting Edgar Renteria in 2009 to produce a .336 wOBA and 74.4 wRC. This is a wRC increase of 50.5! The Giants couldn’t get this much improvement by replacing last year’s firstbasemen with Mark Teixeria.
162 Innings from Correia and Misch in 2008 produced a 5.21 FIP and 93.79 FIPruns. In these same 162 Innings I am projecting Randy Johnson in 2009 to produce a 4.00 FIP and 72 FIPruns. This a FIPruns decrease of 21.78! I can’t imagine any other change the Giants could make to the rotation short of signing CC Sabathia that could result in more improvement then this.
Yes, these improvements are short team. But, thank God, equal and more long term solutions are just around the corner from either the farm, trades, or free agency once these short tem contracts have expired. The point of these two signings now is to play about .500 ball in 2009 (which just might be good enough to compete in the weak NL West) and buy the time needed to complete building a team that can truely compete for an extended period of time like the Giants did from 1997 thru 2004.
John,
Since you acknowledge you are not fimiluar with wOBA I am providing below the details that go with these projected wOBAs for the eight Giants hitters I project to start.
Randy Winn’s wOBA of .340 in 600 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 600/540
BB/HBP 48/5
SH/SF 3/4
1B/2B/3B/HR 106/37/3/10
AVG/OBP/SLG .289/.348/.424
Edgar Renteria’s wOBA of .336 in 600 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 600/540
BB/HBP 51/3
SH/SF 6/0
1B/2B/3B/HR 108/30/3/12
AVG/OBP/SLG .283/.345/.417
Fred Lewis’ wOBA of .343 in 550 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 550/490
BB/HBP 53/2
SH/SF 1/4
1B/2B/3B/HR 85/30/10/10
AVG/OBP/SLG .276/.345/.439
Bengie Molina’s wOBA of .321 in 550 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 550/510
BB/HBP 22/5
SH/SF 2/11
1B/2B/3B/HR 96/30/0/17
AVG/OBP/SLG .280/.309/.439
Pablo Sandoval’s wOBA of .355 in 550 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 550/500
BB/HBP 35/4
SH/SF 1/10
1B/2B/3B/HR 105/32/1/16
AVG/OBP/SLG .308/.351/.472
Aaron Rowand’s wOBA of .341 in 600 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 600/540
BB/HBP 40/15
SH/SF 0/5
1B/2B/3B/HR 98/35/1/16
AVG/OBP/SLG .278/.342/.435
Travis Ishikawa’s wOBA of .339 in 500 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 500/450
BB/HBP 42/3
SH/SF 0/5
1B/2B/3B/HR 80/28/2/14
AVG/OBP/SLG .276/.338/.440
Kevin Frandsen’s wOBA of .331 in 500 PAs breaks down as follows:
PA/AB 500/450
BB/HBP 35/10
SH/SF 5/0
1B/2B/3B/HR 83/30/2/9
AVG/OBP/SLG .276/.338/.411
I believe you and Giant Rain Man are both right. I don’t see your arguments as mutually exclusive. We don’t appear to be one or two players away and thus Sabean’s logic is flawed. The players we picked up are exactly as you called it, fill in players you use to build around your core, the core we’re missing. But I don’t think the answer is/was out there this year to change the course. The contracts of our older players are short term and other then Zito and Rowand we’ll be clear of most in a year and the rest in two years. In the meantime, what if???? What if Sandoval, Ishikawa or Frandsen exceed their ceilings…. what if Florida dumps Ramirez or Tampa decides to dump…. we’ve got chips to make a trade in our system. And right now, I prefer to be optimistic about this season. It’s possible, Ok, remotely possible that we sneak into the playoffs and with our starting pitching, we’d have a shot, a long shot but a shot. I also see us getting better each year from here, and who knows who may be available in July. As Giant Rain Man pointed out, we may have found 3-5 players who can be average to slightly above average for several years… with some high ceiling players a year or three away and potential of some young stars becoming too expensive for other teams… we just may be positioned very well. And this season, welllll it’s not likely to be good, but possible. I’ll take that for now.
The deals for Uribe and Aurilia are minor-league deals; I can’t see the ESPN numbers being close to accurate. I agree though — I wouldn’t have signed them to anything more than about $500,000.
I liked signing Johnaon, who will be useful as long as he stays healthy. If they get 25-30 starts out of him, that’s fine. If Barry Zito could become a .500 pitcher with a 4.25 ERA as the fifth starter, the starting pitching would be OK. I’d have skipped on Howry, but Affeldt is OK. Renteria is a costly upgrade over last year’s disaster area at SS. I wish Sabean had traded off Beach Boy — instead of being mesmerized by his 48 saves, he should have focused on the number he blew, which I believe led the league.
The one thing Sabean got right is avoiding long-term commitments. The thing he got wrong is planning as if this team is a viable contender. The Giants don’t have a bunch of young talent ready to mature (think: Tampa Bay). The talent base is improving, but we were in such a hole that it will take another couple of years (and good drafts, never a guarantee) to finish digging out.
The West is lousy, so the Giants could win 78-85 games (and 85 could win the division. They may also be in a position to add talent as the season goes on. But as comprised now, this team is mediocre at best.
Yeah, but the thing is, players do make those kind of salaries. I’m not sure where this mysterious “savings” comes from – certainly, you can throw Villinova out there at first, and as rainman said, those young guys should be at AAA, playing every day. No one can imagine that having Bocock at SS starting last season helped his career any.
And anyway, while I realize the Yankees live in a different universe, there’s no way any of their three signings this winter are worth the money. VORP-wise, stretched over the contract, Texiera is more likely getting more like $35-40 million this year. That’s absurd. Definitely so is Manny – even the Dodgers’ latest offer is too much. Attitude or not, he’s due to fall off the cliff – it’s just a question of when. I think the latter half of last season was probably his last hurrah.
I’m sorry John, but I’m reading your column as “why don’t we spend more money, we could’ve if we hadn’t of spent more money”. You could stick a Rule 5 player in center field or at short, but you still should have the prospects in AAA.
Zito excepted, I really doubt the other free agents, any of them, is overpaid according the market. Yowling at $4.5 million is kinda silly when you take all the players that aren’t pre-arbitration and look at their salaries. The team makes more money as .500 team than by losing 100 games, see?
Well, I don’t know how you could think my argument is that.
My argument is that the Giants “plan” is doomed to failure two ways:
1. It’s based on the assumption that the team is close to contending, while it absolutely is not.
2. They spend far too much money on replacement level players, which then allows them to say, “We can’t afford to sign the top guys, because if we did, we’d have no team.”
John:
You’re wasting your time with the die-hards. This team will be extending their losing streak to 10 consecutive seasons with the current operating procedures and personnel in place and they will still insist that things are peachy.
In a baseball sense, your arguments are rock solid. But fans live on hopes and dreams. They are entitled to that. There seems to be so little to hope for in our culture today. I don’t blame them. I really don’t. Its not my way, but like George Will commented in Kens Burns baseball: (paraphrase)
“I grew up in Illinois, halfway between Chicago and St. Louis. My friends grew up liberal, Cardinal fans, and are happy. I on the other hand, grew up conservative, a Cubs fan and have a miserable existence.”
I always think of that when I get too pissed off at Giants Management. Then I go over to the Coliseum on a Wednesday Afternoon, sit in the right field bleachers, taking in the sun, and watch a ballgame…making no difference whatsoever who is playing. It beats sitting in an office.
John, mia,
I’m curious what your take on our farm system is. At the major league level we might as well agree to disagree – only time will tell who’s right. Your arguments have been sound, but haven’t addressed the big improvement in our farm system. The Giants are no longer purposely forfeiting picks – instead using the picks to get guys like Posey, Bumgardner, Lincecum, etc…they’re spending money internationally, picking up prospects like Villalona and Rodriguez. Obviously no prospect is a sure thing, but it’s certainly a change from the former operating procedures that got us into this place to begin with. Look, all I’m saying is the last time we drafted a Golden Spikes winner (before Posey), the kid won a Cy Young when he was 23.
Well, without going into great detail, you have to look at the farm system from two standpoints.
1. The prospects they sign. And this is actually where Sabean made his bones in the early days with the Yankees as. They have always done a reasonable job of drafting and signing talent. I think the new guy in Player Development is a fella named Evans. I heard him being interviewed not to long ago. Seemed pretty bright and actually spoke up for the organization in a pretty positive role. Pretty encouraging actually.
2. The Player Development Side. What they actually do with these prospects once their on board. And this is where the Giants have been miserable the last few years. I know a few former prospects who came out of their system with just some of the most ridiculous stories I’ve ever heard. Coaches telling them things like “The best pitch you’ll get to hit, is the first pitch.” Radical restructuring of a prospects swing, simply to justify the instructors position in the organization, and ruining more than one prospect in the process. The disillusionment is always there when you get pink-slipped, but the Giants guys have seemed particularly bitter compared to guys coming out of organizations like the Rays, Phillies, Astros, even the Padres. They all felt like they got a fair shot, and just got caught up in a number game.
Player Development was under the control of Jack Hiatt for a number of years. Jack was a nice guy, but there was no “Giants Way” of teaching things. It was whover happened to be a pal of a pal of the guy who drank beer with a friend of the assist. GM kind of thing. So much of the Giants in recent years has been “who you know, not what you know”. But that is endemic to baseball at all levels. And I mean all levels right on down to Little League. The Tampa Bay franchise is an exception to that, as are the A’s who decided that if they were going to being doing the same things with the same people as their competitors they were not going to go much beyond their payroll expectations. Same with the Twins.
One only has to look around at the way guys have been bounced around between AA and ML and AAA. Sanchez, Niekro, Ortmeir, are three of the most egregious examples of “push-hold, push-hold” bounce around without a real role. The Giants never develop relievers in the minors. Everybody is a starter until they fail it seems.
I could go on, but there is nothing really empirical about my opinions and that is all they are, just anecdotal observations and talking to other guys who are on the fringes of the game.
Baseball is a lot like law enforcement. There is a code. And rarely will guys other than the Jose Canseco’s and Jim Bouton’s of the world really tell you much that you don’t already know. The controversial stuff is mainstream media gossip really. Like Torre’s references to players and that sort of stuff. Those are personal references, not organizational criticisms. But thats been going on since before the Black Sox really. But the actual stuff is hard to come by.
I think you’re missing the long-term picture here, John. I can see how the money we’re spending in free agency looks like Sabean’s failed strategy in the past of spending the money on a bunch of veterans instead of a star. However, this time, it fits into the long-term health of the team. Sure, having a guy like Tex would be great now. However, the difference is in 5 years when he’s on the backside of his career we’d still be paying him a shitload of money for years to come. Guys like Affeldt, Howry, Renteria – they’re all off the books within two years.
Let’s face it, it’s extremely unlikely the Giants have a team capable of winning the world series this year, or the next, even with a guy like Tex. We’d be wasting the most productive years we get out of him on a non playoff team, and by the time our farm system produces us a real team capable of doing things, we’d be hamstrung by his contract. Instead, we’re putting out a somewhat watchable team (though not good by any stretch) for the short term, while our farm system loads itself with talent for the future. When the future comes, we’ll have the money available to add the kind of impact player(s) that can make us an actual contender for the world series.
As for Manny, if the Giant’s want to up the payroll to add him, that’s great. The problem with adding Manny though is based on last year’s stats, Winn was our best position player and Lewis was our third best position player (Molina #2). This somewhat offsets the upgrade Manny would bring us. If Renteria bounces back for a good year, even though we would still lack a true middle of the order bat, the additional runs he would create over our shortstops last year would represent a HUGE upgrade for our offense. Also, defense matters – Winn and Lewis save a lot of runs with their defense that Manny would not. Our pitching staff last year would have been above average, as well, if not for our poor defense.
I take my last point back. I checked fangraphs and they had our team defense ranked #10 (by UZR) in MLB last year. My bad.
Where are you getting $4.5M for Aurilia and Uribe? They were both signed to minor league deals that will only pay then $1M each if they make the team. I do agree that they both are likely to make the team and frankly I think they should. I am also fine with Roberts on the bench in 2009. Bowker, Burriss, and Velez should start everyday in Fresno if as I suspect Ishikawa and Frandsen win the starting 1B and 2B jobs. Having Bowker, Burriss, and Velez on the bench instead of Aurilia, Uribe, and Roberts would actually harm their development as they are just not going to get enough playing time as bench players.
With regards to the rest of your post, I don’t have time right now but you can be sure that I will address it later.
Their salaries are listed right here.
Those are last year’s salaries. You can find this year’s salaries below but you need to page down below the 40 man roster to “Minor-league contracts”.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/san-francisco-giants_30.html