The boys at Baseball Prospectus, (and some girls, too) reminded me why I am so pessimistic about Brian Sabean's efforts:
…. the Giants owed a lot of last year's surprising 72-win season to their record in one-run games, a NL-best 31-21, of which seven were won at the expense of the woeful Padres. That's an awful lot of luck in terms of run distribution within a season, and while things should also improve in the lineup by replacing last season's initial sad-sack set with the better players who helped produce their 28-27 stretch kick, they're still counting on scoring runs with a disjointed blend of expensive, generally mediocre free agents, and a smattering of youngish, mostly ready, and mostly mediocre prospects. Given that third-base aspirant and former catcher Pablo Sandoval might be the only position player likely to be around to help the next genuinely good Giants team, renting the Big Unit made sense as part of a tepid win-now bid, but barring a major move with a Manny to be named later, this is still a team that will have to scratch and claw to ge
t to .500, let alone contend.
This isn't news to most of my loyal readers, but some of the Giants fans who stop by here keep insisting that this team is a player or two away from contending. This is not true. As Christina Karl says so eloquently, “they're still counting on scoring runs with a disjointed blend of expensive, generally mediocre free agents, and a smattering of youngish, mostly ready, and mostly mediocre prospects.”
Again, I'm not saying that I don't want to see Sandoval become a real banger. I'm not saying that I want to see Lincecum regress.
I'm saying that the moves we made this off-season were wasteful, thoughtless, and will add essentially no wins –NONE– to last seasons' 72.
Sabean's best days are behind him, way behind him. And now, so our the Giants.