My email is:

john@onlybaseballmatters.com

If you can’t get through, leave me yours here, and I’ll get through to you that way. I’ll delete it asap, if that’s an issue.

I’m trying to track down your email address but I’m having no luck with the one you have published on your old website.

Here’s what my email would have read had it not bounced back to m:

My name is Brandon Heikoop, I run ‘The Outsiders Look’
(http://theoutsiderslook.blogspot.com) a blog dedicated to all things
baseball.

I am sending you this note to ask if you wouldn’t mind answering a few questions for me regarding the San Francisco Giants. Your answers will be added on my blog as part of a series of previews.

I won’t be doing so until the middle of February, but I wanted to get things
set up now rather then later.

If you don’t think that you would be able to help me out with this, would
you know of any other intensive Giants blogs out there?

Thanks,
Brandon Heikoop

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/extremely_early_projected_standings#When:15:20:00Z

And an apology to the site for my part in the recent unpleasantness.

If Sandoval really pulls his weight, Renteria shows that last season was a fluke, the bullpen holds fort, and the rotation meets their projections, there is no reason this team could not win the division. In the playoffs, we then are looking at a Lincecum-Cain-Unit rotation that could definitely scare some teams. A few key aspects of player performance will need to come to fruition for the team to surpass 80-wins, but it is not out of the realm of feasibility.

I love the Giants, and usually manage to convince myself every April that we are “going all the way” but I really think we’ll be lucky to get 81 wins. Too many “ifs” and no depth if we get hit with injuries.

2009 Giants Rotation Games Innings FIP FipRuns
Tim Lincecum 34 240 2.86 76
Randy Johnson 28 170 3.51 66
Matt Cain 32 213 3.87 92
Barry Zito 31 197 4.56 100
Jonathan Sanchez 24 132 3.63 53
Pat Misch 13 34 4.19 16
Total 162 986 3.68 403

2009 Giants Bullpen Innings FIP FipRuns
Brian Wilson 63 3.70 26
Bob Howry 63 3.99 28
Jeremy Affeldt 77 4.39 38
Sergio Romo 42 3.84 18
Keiichi Yabu 66 4.07 30
Jack Taschner 41 3.93 18
Alex Hinshaw 45 4.35 22
Billy Sadler 53 4.22 25
Merkin Valdez 22 4.39 11
Total 472 4.12 216

Before the effects of defense is added the above Giants pitching staff gives up 619 Runs in 1458 innings (9×162).

Please note that for Romo, Hinshaw and Valdez Marcel Data was used because there was no Bill James Data.
In addition for Valdez his projected innings was reduced from 35 to 22 to make the total innings pitched 9×162=1458.

We will get to the Giants defense last to add (or subtract) their effect on the total runs the Giants allow. But first let’s look at the Giants offense as predicted by Bill James.

2009 Giants Lineup PlateAppearances wOBA wRC
Randy Winn 648 .339 73.5
Edgar Renteria 626 .333 68.2
Pablo Sandoval 566 .365 76.6
Bengie Molina 559 .320 54.7
Fred Lewis 559 .342 65.3
Aaron Rowand 639 .341 73.9
Travis Ishikawa 565 .354 71.3
Emmanual Burriss 621 .302 51.6
2009 Giants Bench PlateAppearances wOBA wRC
Steve Holm 131 .337 14.5
Kevin Frandsen 230 .316 24.5
Eugenio Velez 261 .324 26.4
Nate Schierholtz 190 .354 23.8
Dave Roberts 314 .308 27.6
Pitchers 341 .000 0.0
TOTAL 6250 652

Please Note that I swaped the Plate Appearances Bill James predicted for Travis Ishikawa (190) and Nate Schierholtz (565) since they both have the same projected wOBA (.354) and according to Bruce Bochy Travis Ishikawa is projected to be the Giants starting 1B while Nate Schierholtz is projected to be a backup outfielder. In addition please note that I used Marcel’s plate appearance projections for Kevin Frandsen because they showed him in a reserve role and I went with Burriss as the starter to be conservative since he is projected by Bill James to be worse offensively then the other two potential 2B starters (Frandsen and Velez). Finally note that again to be conservative I assumed the Giants pitchers will be totally inupt on offense and contribute a Zero wOBA and thus Zero wRCs in my projected 341 PAs for them (they had 334 PAs last year and were not a Zero on offense).

Before defense is accounted for Bill James projects the 2009 Giants to score 33 more runs then they give up. 652 runs scored while giving up just 619 runs. No let’s see how many runs the Giants defense is projected to save or add to the runs the Giants pitchers are projected to give up independent of defense (FIP after all is Fielding Independent Performance).

To simplify things I am going to I am going to use the RunsSaved/150Games number for all 8 starters and 1/3 of the RunsSaved/150Games number (RS/50 if you will) for all 5 bench players. Please note that Kevin Frandsen is the only one of these that Chone does not have a defensive projection for but I am going to assume the worst for him and use Velez’s projection.

Starting Player RS/150
Bengie Molina -1
Travis Ishikawa 0
Emmanual Burriss 4
Pablo Sadoval -3
Edgar Renteria -6
Fred Lewis 1
Aaron Rowand 0
Randy Winn 7
TOTAL 2
Bench Player RS/50
Steve Holm -3
Kevin Frandsen -4
Eugenio Valez -4
Nate Schierholtz 1
Dave Roberts 2
TOTAL -8
GRAND TOTAL -6

Therefore being conservative (and almost exclusively because of most likely incorrectly assuming Kevin Frandsen will be as bad on defense as Eugenio Valez) the Giants Defense above is projected to give up an additionl 6 runs on top what the Giants Pitchers are projected to give up. This increases the runs the Giants are projected to allow in 2009 from 619 to 625.

Net of all this projecting is that Bill James’ Offense and Pitching Projections combined with Chone Smith’s Defensive Projections project the 2009 Giants to score 652 Runs while giving up 625. This 17 Run advantage should project to an 83 Win season for our beloved Giants. With a little luck they could do better and thus actually compete for the NL West Title inspite of all the nay sayers here.

Pinto’s overall point is good, although I’m wondering why he put Ryan Rohlinger and Dave Roberts into that starting lineup and why he used the Marcels for players without a lot of major league time (Marcels only account for MLB play time, so you need a few years before they’re really good for a player). Then again, the best lineup I could come up with using his Lineup Analysis tool only yielded ~4.4 runs per game (I mostly used the most pessimistic, and in my opinion, realistic, projections I could find, fyi).

So yeah, things have to break well for the team this season, and with the high probability of ManRam re-signing with the Dodgers, I really can’t peg the Giants as the NL West favorites. I’m still looking forward to next season though… can’t come soon enough.