I’ve been seeing around the baseball blogosphere that I may be in the minority here, an angry Giants fan with not much to say. One of David Pinto’s readers commented:
I read the article and the guy really has no argument. He just rambles on about how the Giants have screwed up so many times before. Nothing but an angry Giants fan.
Well, that’s not true at all. Maybe it’s that I was more mad than analytical, but I have an argument, so let me be more clear.
The Renteria signing is a mistake because Renteria is a poor fit for this team. He is not a young player. He has no upside. He will not be a Giant when this team is contending for a championship. He ties up resources and a roster spot, and his production –what he brings to the party– will not be enough to justify signing him. He is not worth $9 million dollars for a seasons worth of his work. And Emmanuel Burriss might, just might, be able to handle the position for some $400,000.00, which would then free up that money to go after a real, difference-maker.
Not to mention:
…. One National League executive who saw Renteria last year said he looked 100 years old. Many observers reported a marked decline in his defensive range.
…. (Another) National League scout who saw Renteria often last year had a mixed assessment.
“I think the questions at this point have more to do with the defensive side than the offensive side,” the scout said. “He’s a player who’s lost a step. He still has the actions to play shortstop, but the question is how many balls can he get to? He has definitely lost some range in both directions.”
But the Giants scouted Renteria and saw a still-solid, National League-style No. 2 hitter in August and September.
So here’s a player that was so bad, the Tigers basically released him –sacrificing their replacement draft picks– not wanting to even imagine that he’d accept arbitration and be back next season, a player that anyone can see has entered the decline phase of his career, a player who came to camp last season fat and out of shape, even though he was playing for a new contract, likely to be the last big one of his career, and our GM looked at this same player and said this:
“I think the second half is more indicative of what he’s capable of. He was scouted heavily. We did a thorough statistical analysis of his second half versus his first half. We have no reservations about him being our shortstop let alone what he’s going to do on offense.”
He doesn’t walk much, he doesn’t steal, he grounds into a lot of double plays, he doesn’t drive in runs, he doesn’t score many runs, and he actually doesn’t get a lot of hits. He is a league average player, one that is far more likely to decline than he is to even just stay the same. Oh, and that says nothing about the very real possibility that he spends significant time on the DL. We’re talking about $9 million dollars.
Here’s Renteria average season over the last three: .298/.356/.429 .785 OPS with 85 runs scored and 60 runs batted in.
Is that really gonna help the Giants, a team that scored 680 runs last season?
Additionally, it reminds me that Brian Sabean and his crack team of baseball people have no plan for the future, no vision for building this team. This is $11 million per for Aaron Rowand, this is $6 million per for Benji Molina, this is $9 million for Randy Winn…. These are fine players, but on a contender, these would be considered complementary players. These are the kind of players you add to a team to fill out a roster, to supplement your stars. On the Giants, these are the stars, the best players on the team.
When league average guys making millions of dollars are the foundation of your team, you can never get the stars, because your baseline guys eat up too much money.
This is the same move this team has been making forever, and we’re supposed to be building for the future. This doesn’t do that.
I have nothing against Edgar Renteria, and I hope he has a terrific season. But, unless this is the first of about four major signings for MLB-caliber, top-ten offense at the position players, it is throwing money on a bonfire.
UPDATE: I’m not alone:
…. Can anyone explain, however, what Brian Sabean is doing in San Francisco? When he got rid of Ray Durham and Omar Vizquel, wasn’t it with the idea of getting younger? Then he signs the 33-year-old Renteria and 35-year-old reliever Bob Howry, both coming off bad years. Howry had a 5.35 ERA in 70 appearances while Renteria had a .317 on-base percentage with greatly diminished range after playing about 10 pounds heavier all season.
Said one scout: “Renteria may be 33, but he played like 38 last year. I can’t imagine anyone making a worse signing than that one.”
19 Backtalkers
John, you are wrong. The Giants are alot closer to being ready to compete for the NL West Title then you give them credit for. This move does zero long term harm and helps alot in shoring up the infield for 2009 and 2010.
Your critics are correct, you are blinded by your anger over how mismanaged the Giants were from after the 2002 World Series thru the end of the Barry Bonds Era. Things have changed. Wake up and smell the roses.
Rain Man,
Really? Besides the fact that being close to the NL West title is pretty much being close to being the worst team in the post-season, a team that scores 640 runs and allows 701 has no chance, none whatsoever to compete for a championship. Replacing a guy that had 30 runs created for a guy that might have something like 70 runs created is not gonna do anything to enhance those chances.
John,
The basic flaw in your argument (aside from using runs created; might as well use OPS if you wanna be that inaccurate) is that you’re basing your assessment of their respective expected contributions (Burriss and Renteria) based on last year’s data when you should be projecting their performance on more than just that. Even one year of data isn’t enough to get a picture of what a guy will do in the future, mainly because how that guy could just be putting up a fluky performance like Durham in 2006.
This guy explains it better than me:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-this-guy-for-real/
Regards,
Aaron B.
Oh yeah, I also don’t think that the team is as close to contention as some think, but we’re getting closer. I might change my mind if the Dodgers and D’Backs can’t do much to make up for the key guys they lost.
I don’t need to be that accurate, running detailed analyses of whether Renteria’s gonna hit.280 or .300. You’re still talking about a guy who is gonna make $9 million dollars this season and next, a guy who is at best, twice as productive as Burriss, a guy who is another 30-something for a team that needs to stop using 30-somethings. What is he gonna do next season, have a .350 OBP? Who gives a fuck?
Jesus Christ, how can everyone have forgotten what a joke of a team we’ve been running out there these last three or four years?!
33-year old players get hurt, all the time. They do not do better, they do worse. They are slower, so not only can they not make as many plays, they make more errors. They hit for less power, they are more inconsistent….
The Giants have thrown tens of millions of dollars on the ground paying a collection of softball league players for, well, for as long as it matters. But at least when they went and got, say, Kenny Lofton, they still had a core of Bonds, Kent, Bell, Santiago, Rich Aurilia was still alive, I mean, these were all strong players at their positions.
The Red Sox signed Dave Roberts to be a pinch runner, we signed him to be our starting center-fielder. Randy Winn or Aaron Rowand wouldn’t crack the starting lineups for most contending teams, they are our two best players. When are we gonna sign a real player? When are we gonna be in the running for somebody that everyone agrees is the best free agent out there? I’ll tell you when…. Never, because we keep pissing away tens of millions of dollars on guys who can be replaced for the major-league minimum.
Shooting for respectability is completely wrong, we need to either wait for the system to start producing, or shoot for real players. But now, when the time comes to come up with the money to land that real player, these $5, $7 and $9 million dollar deals have hamstrung the organization. The money doesn’t grow on trees. The $18 million dollars Dave Roberts just stole from the team while stealing his 36 bases is gone.
And it will be used as an excuse for not going after Texeira, I guarantee you.
if the div winner loses 80 games…we are indeed close to contending
if not…this remains a second division team
what are you people smoking?
does this team have any legit power? is there anyone in this lineup who can scare an opposing pitcher?
oh look…we got 2 setup guys…which only proves that sabean’s philosophy of solely drafting pitchers is a complete bust
they still cant dump zito, which means signing a legit star is almost out of the question…and now, they are gonna pay 9 mil per for a stopgap ss….and force a glut of prospects to now fight for 2 rather than 3 positions
so please tell me how this team is anywhere close to contending
please show me, outside of being able to watch timmy, caine and wilson pitch, how this team is even more entertaining
john is not wrong…he is right on the money
As things stand now the Giants have $82M Commited to 39 players on the 40 Man Roster. All indications are that the Giants still have enough money left in what they plan to spend this year for a true middle of the order bat. They may even be willing to stretch to take a shot at CC. But that aside lets just look at adding a middle of the order bat. If for example the Giants sign Pat Burrell to play 1B @33M/3yrs they then would have the following:
With the additions of Burrell and Renteria the Giants would have a league average NL ofense with a shot at being above average.
Lineup: Winn RF, Renteria SS, Lewis LF, Burrell 1B, Sandoval 3B, Molina C, Rowand CF, Burriss 2B
Bench: Holm C, Frandsen 2B/SS/3B, Valez 2B/OF, Roberts OF, Bowker/Schierhortz/Ishikawa 1B/OF
With the additions of Affeldt and Howry the Giants now have an above average NL Bullpen with a shot at being top 5.
Bullpen: Wilson CL, Howry RSU, Affeldt LSU, Romo RMR, Taschner/Hinshaw LMR, Valdez/Sadler RMR, Yabu LGR
Most importantly the Giants already have an above average NL Rotation with a shot at being the very best.
Rotation: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Lowry/Misch
Yes, the Giants can compete for the NL West Title and many in the media (both new and old) are now talking about the Giants perhaps even being the favorite to win the NL West. All 4 of the other teams in the NL West have gotten worse (in some cases alot worse) and only the Dodgers might have the money to do anything about it and to be honest with you all the talk out of LA tells me that they do not.
The biggest mistake the Giants could make would be to ignore the opportunity they have now and not make any effort to go for it. Yes they should not (have not and I believe will not) risk the future to do so but they absolutely should go for it.
I agree with John; the argument against him seems to be that because he’s angry, he can’t be right. Sabean is repeating the same pattern of overpaying for players (Roberts, Klesko, Alfonzo, Zito, Hammonds, Durham) who are on the downsides of their careers.
No, the arguement is that because he is angry he can’t see how improved the roster is that the Giants have and are constructing. Further, while an arguement can be made that Renteria might be slightly overpaid no realistic arguement can be made that Affeldt and Howry are overpaid. Further still, there are zero sound arguements that these three collectively are overpaided.
I agree with you there, I can’t see how improved this lineup is. Our top guy hit 16 home runs last season, a number that would represent a career-high for Renteria. Or maybe what I can’t see is how $9 million is considered a base salary for a league-average player. Or how landing CC would make much of a difference for a team that was the worst offense in the whole world.
THIS TEAM NEEDS TOP QUALITY BATS!!!!!
Where are they? Who are they? How can we afford them when we are spending an average of $10 million per season for Winn, Rowand and Renteria, three 12 home run .340 OBP, 30-something nediocrities?
Homeruns are just not the end all be all you make them out to be. They are an answer to the Giants offensive woos but not the only answer. All of the forecast systems are showing the Giants offense greatly improved from last year with Renteria at SS and Sandoval full time at either 1B or 3B. A an true middle of the order bat to play the other corner and the forecast systems would see the Giants offense as being league average and maybe even a little better.
P.S. You are way too focused on the basic stats Renteria and Howry put up last year. If you look at the stats that are actually more predictive (K/BB ratio and line drive percentage) you see that these players are actually still the same players they have always been they were just unlucky in 2008. Only old school thinkers that focus almost exclusively on ERA for pitchers and batting average for hitters agree with you.
As for the quoted scout he probalbly just say Renteria in the first half before he got back in shape and allowed his opinion to be set then. Sabean has changed his ways. He did a much more careful and complete evaluation of these players then you show any willingness to even consider.
This is an excellent and classy site. I would not describe myself as “angry”, perhaps because of the season and the copious amounts of alcohol that come with it, but I am certainly less than convinced that this is very helpful to the Giants. I do not know how much money they have in their pockets to spend, and I do believe that Ed Rent can improve (maybe even, is likely to improve) over his numbers last year. I am concerned about the commentary about his defense. If he is really on an inevitable downtrend, then his presence is not going to help the Giants young pitching staff nearly as much as has been claimed. I agree that this is a stopgap move at best, in hopes that younger talent matures in two years. However, I remember when the Orioles signed Miggy Tejada for $13 million per year a few years ago. It was an overpayment, and he proved it. I also remember the philosophy that accompanied the signing, that “sometimes you have to over-pay for a free agent to entice other free agents to come.” Does Mr. Sabean subscribe to that philosophy? Is he still smarting from being rejected by Soriano and GM Jr.? I am of the opinion that Zito’s contract was partly to make a splash, to show that the Giants could win in a free agent war (whoooo, boy, did they ever!). There is some sense to this direction, a player with big offensive numbers does not want to come to SF and get the Bonds treatment – a record number of IBB’s. So you have to have hitters to attract hitters. Maybe it is a step-by-step process.
giantsrainman
you are just plain nuts
this team is not gonna compete next season…no way, no how
I think Dan Szymborski at BTF (link) sums it up pretty well, and he’s certainly no Sabean apologist. I think this may turn out to be a tempest in a teapot. Renteria is a short-term stopgap. We have a black hole at SS and we’ve plugged it, albeit inelegantly. Far more important to me–will we sign Tim Lincecum to a long-term deal (something like what Dustin Pedroia and the Sox did)?
mark
you dont pay 9 million per for a stopgap….you get a servicable journeyman for half the price
or you stay with omar for 2 mil per…and he mentors the kids
I Don’t See Renteria as just a stop gap. I see him as a significat offensive upgrade at SS while still being league average (as his UZR stats on fangraphs shows) on defense. I see him as an import piece of the puzzle of taking advantage of how much the rest of the NL West has gotten even worse and thus going for it in 2009 without risking 2010 and beyond.
I ment to say going for it in 2009 and 2010 without risking 2011 and beyond.
Anger is good.
“I read the article and the guy really has no argument. He just rambles on about how the Giants have screwed up so many times before. Nothing but an angry Giants fan.”
Typical little bitch-hissing from the opera singers, art students and convenience store clerks who don’t know shit about shit, but are compelled to spittle all over a blogsite when their pseudo-intellectual smugness gets crushed by somebody who actually knows what he is talking about, and has the actual cojones to hit the jackasses who run the Giants over the head when they try to bullshit the public.
The Giants are actually pretty good punching bags and provide a target-rich environment for ridicule, humiliation, and disparagement in general. But they are not alone, and only make up 20 percent of the long playing professional sports farce consisting of themselves, the Warriors, Raiders, A’s and Niners.
There is no sanity when it comes to the Giants front office or the jerk-off opinionators in the blog-o-smear, and the kiss asses who comment on their blogs .
But alas, I digress.
Most of the Giants sycophantic followers, blog trolls, season-ticket losers, and stat skanks, have become so brain numbed by the putridity of the Giants, they can actually look at guys like Winn, Rowand, Roberts, Howry, and now the broken down lost 2 steps Pedro Feliz Edgardo Alfonso Ray Durham replacement, formerly known as Edgar Rentaria and see “positive movement and a step in the right direction”. Sabean’s comments defending his latest acquisitions are just retarded. He should just shut up and stop reminding people how much of a lobotomy candidate he really is.
Signing Howry and Rentaria is more of the same maggot infested roster stuffing that Sabean and his crack team of 19th century statisticians indulge in every off-season. The trouble with the Giants owners is they subscribe to the imbecilic notion that spending money on pseudo-talent that has “Q” rating and trying to pimp it off as a “ballpark experience” is “good baseball”. Fucking retards. Its not even good marketing. Hell, its not even good bullshit anymore.
Any ball club that has to promote fill-in outfielders, like Rowand, Winn and Roberts and a washed up Nancy-boy, skirt wearing, poo-flinging Barry Zito as “stars” is a fucking embarrassment. Fuckers. I wouldn’t take a hundred bucks to sit through 3 hours of that kind of torture in cramped seats with quiche eating skirt lifters, trying not to puke from the stench of the shit garlic potatoes that smell like the old rendering plants further south on third street, much less pay for the privilege.
Frankly, I am more interested in the outcome of the Bonds Witch Trials than I am of the 2009 Giants season. There is certainly more talent involved, not to mention passion.
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