Tim Lincecum is now 15-3, and is leading the National League with 210 strikeouts, a 2.43 ERA, with 81% quality starts, 10.20 K/9IP, an .833 winning percentage, a 62.2 average game score, and a 2.80 defense independent ERA. He’s in the top ten in just about every other significant category, and really is only challenged for the Cy Young this year by Brandon Webb, who is also having a terrific season.
Webb is 19-5, is 6th in ERA at 2.85, and is also in the top ten in most important categories. The only thing Tim does significantly better than Webb is strike guys out, Webb’s got 157.
But Lincecum has allowed 12 fewer earned runs in just about the same number of innings, and with the Giants having only about 70 home runs, you’d think he’s not getting anywhere near the same kind of run support. For example, Lincecum has six games in which he gave up 2 or fewer runs and came away with a no-decision, including twice when he allowed no earned runs. Webb has only three such games, and that’s pretty much the difference between them.
Overall….
Tim has been supported by 124 runs in 29 appearances, 4.27 runs per game.
Webb has been supported by 128 runs in 28 appearances, 4.57 runs per game.
It seems like Lincecum’s has pitched in more games in which the Giants offense has disappeared, but he’s had plenty of runs to work with overall. However…..
On May 15th, Lincecum threw 6 innings against the Astros, allowed 3 earned runs and got a no-decision that left his record at 5-1. Webb went 7.1 innings against the Rockies, also allowed 3 earned runs, and won, running his record to 9-0. Up to that point in the season, Webb had received 56 runs in his first 9 starts, 6.22 runs per game, and had allowed 18 earned runs in 63.1 innings, good for a 2.57 ERA. Lincecum had gotten just 38 runs in his first 9 starts, 4.22 per game, and had allowed only 12 earned runs in 56.1 innings, for an ERA of 1.92.
Since then, the two pitchers are essentially dead even, with Webb going 10-5 and Lincecum 10-2.
Bottom line, the race will come down to whether the voters can’t see past Webb winning something like 22 games, even though Lincecum has been the best pitcher in the NL all year long, regardless of Webb’s 9-0 start.
5 Backtalkers
Webb will get his 20th at some point and the Snakes will–I hope–win the division. They seem determined to keep the Dodgers close at this point. That combo, 20 wins and 1st place, will be impossible for writers to ignore. Barring a meltdown, Webb will get the Cy. At least he is a deserving candidate–he’s been one of MLB’s best for the last 3 seasons. Tim’s emergence as a genuine star is certainly the year’s highlight. It is fun to think about how far he can go.
Sadly enough that last comment is true, people look at wins and loses first and then the important stuff a pitcher can actually control, ERA, K/BB ratio, etc. Whether or not a team makes it to the post season is 100% on the WHOLE staff not just a pitcher, and a solid pitching outing with quality start is still a lose if the team you are on sucks at scoring. Look at the numbers the pitchers can control and Tim is having a better year… (and that isnt considering K’s because that is overhyped as well.).
Sportswriters DO like strikeouts, however, so hopefully that will help Lincecum’s cause…
Well, we’re a week past the original post and what do we see?
Webb lost a BIG pennant chase game to the Dodgers. He only goes 3-1/3 innings while giving up 8 runs. That follows a loss to the lowly Pads where Webb is shelled for 6 runs in only 4-2/3 innings.
Lincecum has a poor game in Colorado getting knocked out in 5 innings after the Rockies score 5.
Today is another big start for Webb against the Dodgers. The winner of this contest will be in 1st place in the NL West. Two losses to the Dodgers in the heat of the pennant race will count against Webb in the Cy Young voting.
What is the deadline for the writers vote? If Bochy keeps him on a 5-day schedule, how about a season ending Lincecum victory to knock the Dodgers out?
13-2/3 IP, 19 ER for Webb in his last three starts. Wow, a genuine meltdown! The door is open for The Enchanter–tonight’s start is huge. I figure he’ll only get three more after this.
GO, TIM!!!