As bad as Zito’s been –and that’s pretty damn near the worst pitcher in all of baseball bad– Tim Lincecum has thrust himself directly into the conversation for the NL Cy Young Award. He’s certainly making a terrific case for starting the All Star Game.
He’s second in ERA (2.49), first in strikeouts (122), first in winning percentage (10-1, 91%), first in quality starts percentage (88%), tied for third in wins (10), 10th in WHIP (1.24), second in average game score among everyday starters, second in K/9IP, 3rd in OPS against (.621), and has posted all of these great stats while pitching for a team that is 28-47 (37%) without him and his 10-1 record. The team is 12-5 on the days that he pitches, and 26-43 when he doesn’t.
For a pitcher to be 10-1 for a team that is 13th in the league in runs scored is simply astounding. Lincecum is conjuring memories of Steve Carlton’s amazing 1972 season, when he won 27 games for a team that lost 100.
I’d also recommend you take the time to read Tom Verducci’s nice cover article in this week’s SI.
…. The skittish Baltimore Orioles, picking ninth in the ‘06 draft, basically took him off their board — though by then Lincecum, a junior at Washington, was a two-time Pac-10 pitcher of the year who had struck out more batters than any other pitcher in conference history, including Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson and Mark Prior.
“We took a high school hitter,” recalls then-Baltimore general manager Jim Duquette, referring to Bill Rowell, a third baseman who is hitting .225 in high A ball. “There was a feeling that [Lincecum] was short, not a real physical kid, and mechanically he was going to break down, that there was enough stress on his arm, elbow and shoulder. Our scouting department kind of pushed him down because of the medical aspect.”
Six of the first seven teams to pick in that draft selected pitchers. All of them passed on Lincecum, even the Seattle Mariners, who played it safe in choosing the strapping 6′ 3″ righthander Brandon Morrow — a guy they use in relief at that — rather than the Freak in their own backyard. The Giants took Lincecum at No. 10. He pitched only 13 times in the minors, allowing seven earned runs and whiffing 104 batters in 62 2/3 innings, before it became obvious to San Francisco that it had a prodigy who was wasting his time down there.
Since his May 2007 call-up Lincecum has been only slightly more challenged by major league hitters. In 40 starts through Sunday, he was 16-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 264 strikeouts in 256 innings. Only one starting pitcher in baseball history, Dwight Gooden of the New York Mets in the mid-’80s, has won 70% of his decisions over his first two seasons while logging more strikeouts than innings.
Exactly.
UPDATE: According to this article, Brandon Webb will be the All Star starter for the NL. Webb, the 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner, is 12-4 with a 3.43 ERA, and certainly is the safe choice; given his terrific start, but, as of now, the best pitcher in the NL is Lincecum. I’m glad he’ll be there, but he should’ve gotten the start.
22 Backtalkers
TIMMAY!!!
Great post John. Lincecum is the Tiger Woods of baseball….and we better do everything to keep him a lifetime Gigantes.
+mia,
In response to your previous post. Couldn’t agree more about the negative psychology Zito brings on the team. After consideration, I agree…Fresno is not an option. Your points are spot on. If I had Zito in my company…I would have a mutiny on my hands. Every employee would be demanding more…or walking out the door. But then again, I work in the real world…which rules do not apply in sports. If so…the Gigantes would not be profitable. Also, since when has the sports fan ever been rational…specifically in regards to spending.
We all agree that Zito lacks mental toughness…and is in a state of constant denial. Otherwise, as you and others have pointed out…he would be making the necessary adjustments…and learning how to “pitch” with sub-par stuff.
Aurilia’s post game comments on Lincecum reinforce your point. When asked why the Gigantes perform so well when Lincecum pitches “we know he’ll keep us in the game”…”he gives us a great chance to win every time he’s on the mound”. The exact opposite can be said of Zito.
Today is another judgement day. Packed house…Dodgers. If he blows up early…could get real ugly. Contrary to what others are posting…I would rather see Misch or anybody for that matter…gaining experience than watch Zito.
In the sub .500 NL Worst…anything is possible…even the Rocks in Denver think they have a shot. If you let a poor team hang around long enough…they can beat you. Like I keep saying…stranger things have happened.
How bout them 10 Ks
Here are Barry’s numbers since he remembered how to throw 87-88, last three starts, 18.2 IP 3.38 ERA 6 BB 20 K.
Dignan, I agree with most of what you write (especially our shared disgust with the thought of throwing out Pat Misch every 5th day). That said: Small Sample Size. But hopefully Zito’s turned the corner for real.
hey scott,
how are the giants gonna keep him, when they gave zito that inflated salary?
the org is gonna lose tim come fa time
watch for the mariners or yanks to make a huge move on the kid
and you can thank sabean for this
if i was the org, at this season’s end, i would renegotiate his current contract so that he is now in 6 figures
Sabean’s contract? or Zito’s? Because there’s no way in hell Zito (or Boras) restructures/renegotiates his current contract.
ooops….meant 7 figures
Dignan,
I’m absolutely stunned…and nothing would make me happier than to eat crow regarding Zito. I’ve been constantly saying that anything is possible in the NL Worst. If Zito turns it around…I do not see any better staff in the NL. Walker’s injury might open it up for Hinshaw as set-up or by committee…and Romo has one of the nasties sliders going. This staff that will tough to contend with.
Is this the farthest into any season with all clubs sub .500 in one division?
Huge momentum game today.
People. Please. Zito would have to run off 9 consecutive efforts like this one just to get to even. That would be all of July and August. For a .500 pitcher.
Zito has won 4 games. One each against Florida, Arizona, Cleveland, and now Los Angeles. Of these 4 teams, only Florida is above .500. Barely. And has given up more runs than it has scored all season. The other three are under .500. They are losing teams each, giving up more runs than they score.
I am as impressed with Barry Zito as I was with Atlee Hammaker, the guy Zito most reminds me of, and twenty years his predecessor. Apparently a nice guy, sort of flaky, but always disappointing just when you think he had turned the corner, and was ready to revert to some sort of awesomeness. Marginally physically gifted, and mentally inconsistent. Both overachievers in terms of their physical tools, each had a couple of significant wins and a couple of really good seasons. But basically ordinary (in Major League Terms) at best, with the exception of one spectacular season, but disappointing overall.
But thats the analysis and backwards look. Physically, Zito is a pie thrower. He is a soft tossing thumber who relies on the 25% of MLB umpires who can call a 12-6 curveball for strikes. Yes he can compensate for his lack of arm strength and drop his arm slot down a half notch to pick up a couple of mph. Whatever. Its a cheap temporary fix. It changes the release point look for opposing batters. This is usually the first step on the way to middle relief specialist ala Scott Ayers, Al Levine, Jack Taschner, Steve Kline. Which is where Zito should be if he is going to be anywhere near a MLB roster. The rest is wishful thinking for the white bread lovers in MSM. For everything else, there is Mastercard.
Nice “analysis” mia. I decided to do some of my own too.
I checked out Atlee Hammaker’s Baseball-Reference.com page and, um, what the hell are you talking about? Hammaker had one very good season as a starter (1983 at age 25), one good season (1987 at age 29), and a whole bunch of seasons that were either below-average in performance or only were less than 90 innings (and from age 31 to the end of his career, all of Hammaker’s seasons were both below average and less than 90 innings, save his 1994 season where he pitched 1 1/3 innings without giving up an earned run).
Zito, on the other hand, had a stellar debut of a little over 1/3 of a season (2000), two very good seasons (2001 and 2003), one excellent season (2002), an average one (2004), then two more good ones (2005 & 2006), followed by last year’s slightly below average season and this year’s stinkfest.
Hammaker never topped 200 innings like Zito did from 2001-2006 (and Zito threw 196 2/3 innings last season too).
A better comparison here is Steve Avery, who, like Zito, had an early run of success (though not as long or as dominant as Zito) only to fall apart in his late 20s/early 30s, mainly because of a severe decrease in fastball velocity.
And Steve Avery pitched for the Giants when?
And Zito had stellar stats for the Giants when?
Before you ask me what “the hell I am talking about”, please read what I wrote and the context in which it is written.
Well, since you asked so politely, I reread what you wrote again. And it still befuddles me.
Marginally physically gifted? So he doesn’t run like Eugenio Velez or doesn’t have John Bowker’s strength. You don’t need to have that talent in order to pitch well. He keeps himself fit and limber, especially his core muscles and legs (which are as important to good pitching as the arm). He’s not some unathletic slob and isn’t out of shape like Tyler Walker or Steve Kline. He keeps himself healthy, and he’s still on pace to pitch somewhere between 180 and 190 innings this season despite his early troubles and short outings.
Mentally inconsistent? I guess using your skills of uber-sports-psychology and telepathy, you can figure out exactly what goes through Zito’s mind despite never talking with him. Zito’s not throwing tantrums in crucial situations like Milton Bradley’s ill-advised (and provoked, I know) tantrum against the ump in San Diego last season. He’s not visibly writhing after giving up a big hit or flipping off the home crowd like Byung-Hyun Kim did in Arizona and Boston, respectively. The speculation that Zito has undiagnosed shoulder problems (as stated by pitching mechanic analyst Chris O’Leary) makes more sense than your psychoanalytic gibberish.
Zito’s problems are the physical kind. His mechanics are different from his days of throwing consistently in the high 80’s I don’t care who you are or how confident you are, if you have mediocre control and a subpar fastball, you’re going to shy away from using your fastball primarily and are going to start, as they say, “pitching backwards.”
It’s also hard to call Zito flaky. Zito’s regarded as one of the best-prepared players on the team. The coaches say it. Other players echo the sentiment. Even though I realize most of the local news outlets are just mouthpieces for Giants management, I doubt every single person in the organization is flat out lying about Zito’s work ethic, preparation and dedication.
BTW, you should check out Zito’s gamelog from last season. I’m not sure what you classify as a “stellar” start but he’s got plenty of Game Scores in the 60’s and 70’s (50 is average) and even an 81 thrown in for good measure. He just also had a lot of outings in the 30s too.
And can we please stop with the Win/Loss nonsense? Matt Cain never got to .500 last season despite being the best pitcher on the team. I don’t care if Zito gets his personal record back up to .500 or better. As long as he consistently eats innings and keeps games competitive (or as competitive as the offense will allow the rest of the way), I’ll be fine (well, with him. Not management).
+mia,
Your style counts…and your posts are entertaining. We all understand your feelings about Zito(as a player). There is a lot more wrong than just Zito. You’ve completely disected him on many occasions. At times, I feel your conclusions, accurate as they may be…are some what unfair. I’m a Gigantes fan first…so, if the only alternative is to pitch him, we should start judging him from what he’s doing from today on. We all agree his past performances are sub-par(they suck)…and his contract from hell will saddle the Gigantes for years to come. We can all thank Peter and Sabean for that. Worse yet, other pichers will be using Zito’s contract as a barometer for negotiating salaries.
There’s plenty more wrong than just Zito. I’ve been posting all year about Vizquel getting far too much playing time. You don’t hear too many people booing Vizquel’s .155 BA. Lucky this isn’t Philly. Burriss needs to play…and not just one game a week. I like Molina…but, he cannot continue to bat clean-up. The line-up needs to be revamped. Just how bad is the NL Worst…we’re 12 under .500…and only 6 out of first. Since we cannot win at home…most likely a last place finish.
Well, I’m not sure how one can be accurate and unfair in one’s criticism simultaneously. If its accurate as you say, and in context, than by definition it is fair. What is unfair is that Zito has been paid, is being paid, and will continue to be paid for the next several years, more than the rest of the entire pitching staff put together. That’s whats unfair.
And I think comparing Vizquel’s status to Zito is unfair. Vizquel has averaged a little over 4.6 assists/putouts per game over the course of his career prior to this season. That means he handles the ball on average one time, every other inning. The pitcher on the other hand, handle the ball an average of 25 to 30 times over the course of those same 2 innings. This is just my smug-ass and pedantic way of saying a pitcher’s role is significantly more important than an infielder’s on defense.
And on defense Omar is still viable, though his range is limited compared to the Omar of 1995. Also, Vizquel is 100 years old and he readily acknowledges that fact.
Comparing a shortstop to a pitcher is like comparing a Tight End used primarily for running plays, to the QB, in terms of their relative importance to the outcome of a game. What combo would you rather have: Lincecum and Vizquel, or Zito and Burris? Swapping out shortstops on this team with Zito on the mound is the proverbial rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titantic
Insofar as his Interstate Batting Average and his 400 OPS? Yeah, he can’t hit anymore. But neither can anybody else on this roster. The 7,8 and 9 spots in the Giants order have been automatic outs since 2004 anyway. Everybody knows this is Omar’s last year. The fans are cutting Omar slack I believe, because they know this season is it for him. This is his swan song. Thanks for the memories, though all the really good ones were made in Cleveland Indians laundry; etc. etc. Yeah, Burris should be playing. Or even Bocock or the ball dudes for all the difference it makes. Vizquel is a disaster at the plate. We know that. But he plays everyday because of Bochy and Sabean and a whole lot of other issues that beset the Zoolanders in the front office. He’s gone by the end of September anyway. Yeah, it would be nice if one of the tryout kids was in there everyday for evaluation, but whatever. Hard to get excited about deck chairs.
Zito on the other hand has done little more than embarrass himself on the mound since he got here. Even terminal cancer patients have “good days” once in awhile. Zito’s presence is a roster tumor. It is a bad thing when the team you are supposed to lead to the promised land is committed to cough up 25% of player payroll forever to this guy even though he stinks more than the Harris Ranch Stockyards in the middle of August. If and when Lowry gets back, the Giants need to dfa Zito. The sooner the better. Mike Hampton, Kevin Brown and Russ Ortiz are still collecting millions. At least we don’t have to look at their sorry asses ditzing around a pitching mound taking us out of ballgames every 5th day in the process.
+mia,
Alright, so I get your point. But, no need for a 1000 word rebuke. I realize a pitcher controls the flow, and that Vizquel has a legacy at short, and provides stability. The Gigantes lose too many one run games because of their anemic offense, and putting Burriss in there would be a plus…maybe more wins than ZIto loses. Bowker got his shot…and will never look back. I refuse to get on a witch hunt regarding Zito. If Zito rolls out three more stellar performances…it can only add value. The Gigantes have no other choice than to roll the dice and pitch him. I get the feeling there’s nothing Zito can do to ever get you off his case.
On the other hand, I find your posts entertaining…and unlike you, I do not take it personally when someone totally thinks I’m off base. That’s what makes this site what it is. Be a pretty shitty world if everyone thought the same. Even when you get completely venemous…I do not take the time to break down every point and critique your opinions. It’s cool though…your blogs make this site all the more worthwhile. I almost read it for your posts alone…John should take note.
I find your assessment of the Gigantes front office 150% spot on. I will no longer hold a season ticket because of the Bonds treatment. The Gigantes make money regardless of the product they field. That in itself is the problem. Bonds carried the load for years. It will take at least two more years before the Bonds fall-out hits their books.
In my mind, the line-up is as big an issue as Zito…for winning games. Not just “deck chairs” even though I realize you were referencing Vizquel/Burriss situation as a lower tier decision. They all count….and wins is what we’re all looking for. Little things equate to runs…and the Gigantes are in desperate need of that.
Scott:
Sorry if my tone is taken as a personal affront. It is not intended that way. I write the way I talk and I know it comes off as smartass. Hence my little dig at myself above “…my smug-ass and pedantic way ..”
I love the give and take and punching of debate about baseball. Your appreciation for my writing is only exceeded by mine for yours and others here, including the guys I take swipes at. Its all in the spirit of debate, and I hope that guys are as passionate about their ideas as I am mine.
I am not down on Zito per say. I would encourage every ballplayer to accept the best offer they can get. I would encourage every person who works for a paycheck to accept the best offer they can get in the workplace. Now having said that, sometimes the best offer is not the most money one can get. Sometimes its being smart enough to look in the mirror and realize that your true value is vastly overrated by others. And that sooner or later, your going to get found out. It takes a big person to realize that. That is what a good agent who has his clients best interest at heart will tell that ballplayer. Thats why guys like Lee Steinberg and Jeff Moorad were/are respected and liked as player agents, and guys like Scott Boras and Drew Rosenhaus are despised by so many.
Bonds routinely accepted less money to stay in S.F. The SF 49ers routinely took less money and rearranged their contracts to help management acquire the players that they all needed to remain championship contenders. Including Jerry Rice, Steve Young and Joe Montana. Hall of Famers each. (Rice as soon as he is eligible of course)
So you’re right. There is very little, if anything Zito can do to change my mind about him. Until he changes. He is who he we see out there. And until he makes a decision and acts upon that decision, he will remain a subpar performer. And he needs to lose the fucking sunglasses if he is doing interviews. He’s not good enough for affectations.
+mia,
Good call on Zito and the sunglasses. Both my brothers and I were watching and said “dude, shed the shades”. I guess he thinks it’s cool….or he’s too cool. Hopefully, he continues his new found success. I refuse to even talk about Boras…he’s feeling real good about Zito and Andruw Jones…actually, he could care less.
Before we make this a mutual admiration society, I would like to take a few shots at the lack of fundamentals…and poor game mgmt. by the Gigantes. I will just point out what just happened tonight….which is all too typical. Gigantes hurting to score runs…pitch to Castro with two outs(1st and 3rd) and Santana(.130 hitter) on deck. No…let’s pitch to the Castro…3 run bomb. Sanchez is young and there’s no need to take that chance…who cares if the line-up gets flipped. Walk him…get Santana, and keep it 0-0. Typical Bochy and Rags mentality. Just don’t get it. Somebody needs to be thinking somewhere on that bench. This is not a club that can afford to get behind. I’m sure this is not lost on most fans…just to Bochy.
Too pissed to go on a rant. But, would like to hear what others think the Gigantes line-up should be.
“I felt like I had pretty good rhythm out there,” Zito said.
I wasn’t going to say anything about Zito’s “whatever” performance against the Mets today, but after reading that…well, it is just too much to giggle at
For the record: 5+ innings pitched 105 pitches 10 earned baserunners 6 BBs 2 Ks. 2 earnies. Of the 105 pitches 58 strikes-47 balls. And more than a couple of those strikes were fouls on pitches out of the strike zone. Having said that, the Mets are hot right now and that they scored 12 runs off of Lincecum and Sanchez and the bullpen in 16 innings prior to today’s game is indicative of that fact. So it could have been worse. At least Barry had a pretty good rhythm out there.
—————————————
Giants lineup?
Just for shits and giggles and pure entertainment?
Lewis RF
Durham 2b
Sexson 1b
Bonds LF
Rowand CF
Molina C
Aurilia 3b
Burris SS
There would be entertainment for sure.
This team has only scored more than 4 runs 29 times this year. And they lost 13 of those games. And 4 of the wins came against the Expos/Nationals.
This team simply cannot score runs. At .707, they lead only the Dodgers, Padres and Nats in OPS. 707? That’s an outdated Boeing Jetliner that debuted in the 1950s, not a damned MLB OPS unless your name is FP Santangelo. And only the even more pathetic Pads and Nats have scored fewer runs. Two of the worst teams in the history of universe. Or at least this season.
The propaganda “all-out” “gamer” “playing the way the game is supposed to be played” is that the Giants are a “small ball” team. Uhm well they rank 9th in the NL in SB% at 71% with a whopping 69 SBs in 92 games. They are next to last in BB at 276 and lead only the Astros who have 275. They have hit into 78 Double Plays-9 more than Stolen bases- and have the worst HR/AB in the NL by a ton 1 homerun for every 54 ABs. The Marlins by contrast lead the NL with 1 homerun in every 24 ABs. By comparison, every team in the National League hits at least one home run in less than 40 ABs except the Giants, Expos/Nats, and Dodgers.
Simply stated this is one of the worst Giants teams in memory. It is a team without a plan, without direction, and its players seem just about on the verge of giving up the ghost.
Except on the days that Lincecum and or Sanchez pitches, there isn’t much to look forward to.
Bland Ass baseball for the last 4-5 years. These clods need to have some fun. Controversy is fun. Do something imbecilic in addition to bringing in Sexson and Bonds. Cut loose Zito too. Bring in Brenley to manage and Robby Thompson for 3b coach. Bring in Trevor Wilson or Roger Craig back out of retirement for all I care. Pitching coaches are overrated anyway at this level. This franchise has been numbing its fanbase like an overdose of Novocain for the last several years. The fans won’t even take, much less fill-out All Star Ballots being distributed by the ushers at PacBell. And thats in the brie and whine section of Larry Baer. WTF? If that isn’t a wakeup call, I don’t know what is. I’m sick and tired of boring bland politically expedient milquetoast management styles from all the Bay Area Sport franchises, and the Giants are the biggest offender simply because they have the best facility and the most money and they have given themselves double hernias trying to be the West Coast Version of the Washington Montreal Puerto Rico Caracas Moscow Expos Nationals Mudhens Traveling All Stars and Motor Kings.
DO SOMETHING INTERESTING you jackasses. Before the last fan turns out the lights on the way out. Pathetic.
+mia,
Amen to that. I bought MLB Extra 3 years ago, because I found the Gigantes style(station to station) too lethargic…excluding the excitement a Bonds ab brought to the game….when he wasn’t being intentionally walked. But, that being said, all the problems of three years ago, are front and center now. There is no Bonds to mask and cover the faults. Bonds made everyone better….and more time was spent worrying about Bonds…which equates to stress innings. Better pitches for others. Bringing in Rowand, is a band-aid approach for a deep wound. He is a role player…and the Gigantes are in desperate need of a game changing franchise player…like a Vlad. Too little…too late.
With tough ecomomic times, the Gigantes marketing organization has succeeded in getting PacBell and a day at the yard as a “family event”. Regardless of the product, families come out for a game, and spend a total vacation in one day. Never ceases to amaze me. Which I guess is why they waste so much time showing kids eating ice cream and cotton candy. The game is a side show. There will come a time, when people wake up and realize they could be in Hawaii for less. Even Vegas realized in the end…that the family approach for “sin city” wasn’t working. Now it’s back to “what happens in Vegas…stays in Vegas”. Screw the family venue.
I agree…make a decision and rebuild…show some direction with conviction. Presently, I have no idea what direction the organization is heading. But, they make tons of money…in spite of themselves. I would have Aurilia at first and bring in Beltre to play third…and yes…I would bring Bonds back…for appreciation reasons alone…but, after what’s transpired…I doubt he would do it.
The fans need to see the light first…before they can turn the switch off.
“Bonds routinely accepted less money to stay in S.F.”
Link to that please.
All reports at the time(s) were that that there was no interest from anywhere and that the Giants bid against themselves.
For the first time in my 54 years, I got to spend my birthday watching the Giants live (the schedule-maker conveniently put them in NYC).
I’ve been a Giants fan since 1959, when WINS in NY used to broadcast games from the coast. I’ve enjoyed the good times and suffered through the lousy ones. However, on this night, I left early because they are unwatchable.
There are approximately 3 major league position players (Molina, Rowand, Winn) on this roster. There are some good young starting pitchers (Lincecum, Sanchez, Cain) and an OK closer (Beach Boy). Zito is a back-of-the-rotation starter making top-starter $$. The manager is a hack; the GM has run the franchise into the ground. There is no likelihood that this team will be any better before 2010 at the absolute earliest.
For the last few years, I have bought Extra Innings to follow the Giants. Not this year. They’re not worth the investment. From what I see on box scores and the occasional TV clip, a lot of SF fans have come to the same conclusion.
The only question this year is whether they will lose 100 games. My money says they will.