The boys backtalking over at El Lefty Malo were discussing Lincecum’s 121-pitch effort the other night. Instead of backtalking, I thought I’d use our friend OGC’s comments to start my own discussion:
Last year was Lincecum’s first year in the majors. Not only was it a learning experience for the major league staff on how to use him, but it was his first full professional season. So they cut his season a little short, both to save him and to try out others as starters. In addition, the season was lost at that point, nothing to be gained from starting him.
This is a new year. The arm strength to throw more innings was enabled by him pitching more last season, it should have prepared him to pitch a full season this year. They also have a season of handling him and now have a feel for what they can and cannot do with him. Plus, a year’s experience dealing with Tim, knowing when to believe him and when not to, seeing when they should take him out, and so forth on his behavior.
If you say that they are harming him, then list some studies where this has been shown. BP has done some work in this, but I wouldn’t say that their work is definitive yet. And most of the stuff you read on this is derived from BP’s theories.
And at what point do you stop babying him? Would you continue to shut him down every year to protect him? Would you really do that if the team was competing for the division title?
Well, that’s a bit of a stretch. Most of the work done on pitch count concerns hasn’t been done by the guys at BP. Some of it has, but certainly you wouldn’t say “most.” 100-pitch limits, pitch counts, and other methods designed to reduce the workload of young pitchers isn’t a brand-new trend, or some pie-in-the-sky sabermetrician’s made up bullshit. Teams have been limiting the amount of work done by their young –and old– pitchers for quite a while now. As for the “evidence” or studies that “prove” that pitch load limits work, well, why would that you need to “prove” anything like that?
Injuries to young pitchers are one of the most expensive mistakes/problems facing a team, and all of the value on the Giants can be found in it’s young pitchers. Limiting a young pitcher’s pitch load is a real, tangible, and important part of caring for the player, and the team investment.
My concern is that Sabean and Bochy have no idea about any of this stuff, that they don’t worry that pitch limits haven’t been “proven” to work, because they don’t think about it at all. Are there people out there who have all already forgotten about the destruction of the Giants pitching staff wrought by Felipe Alou?
…. (The Giants) signed Felipe Alou after they decided that Dusty Baker was too good, and taking away too much credit from them. At the time, I thought he was the best of the known choices, but in hindsight; it’s clear that Alou cost the Giants dearly. He destroyed the careers of Kirk Reuter, Jesse Foppert, Kurt Ainsworth, Jerome Williams, and Jason Schmidt. Schmidt was probably the most costly. Schmidt’s never been the same after that 143-pitch, 17-strikeout, 1-hitter in May of 2004. That month, Schmidt started 5 games, went 47 innings, allowed 23 hits, had 54 strikeouts, and a 1.53 ERA. Since then, he’s had a monthly ERA below 3.00 just one single time, and he’s been on and off the DL constantly.
What Alou did to Reuter beggars belief. Everyone in baseball knew that Woody was a 100-pitch pitcher. Everyone. Everyone on the Giants did, too. Krukow talked about it all the time. Alou let him go 110-plus four times in the first half of ‘04, including his second start of the season. During that stretch, Sabean was putting the final touches on Woody’s $18 million dollar extension –one that he wasn’t even up for, by the way– and when the dust settled, we had another player being paid millions of dollars to watch TV.
So, how much “proving” do we need ? Tim Lincecum is the single most valuable commodity on the team. You could argue that he is one of the most valuable players in the entire game of baseball, and in the first 25 games of the year, Bonehead has allowed him to go back into a game to pitch after an hour-long rain delay –something normal teams don’t even do with established veteran pitchers– and then two nights ago, throw an additional 10 pitches in the 8th inning when he was leading, and had already thrown 114 pitches.
Baseball Prospectus pitcher abuse points system, which measures all of the stress on a pitcher, not just innings or pitches thrown, has Lincecum ranked second in the NL. That is fucking unbelievable. The most valuable young player in the entire Giants organization is being run out there and put under the most stress of all but one pitcher in the whole National League. Under what circumstances should this be allowed? None.
There is no reason this team should be abusing Lincecum. I’ll say it again, Bochy’s only job is to make sure Cain and Lincecum and the rest of these young pitchers don’t get injured. Anything he and Righetti do that jeopardizes the health of their young pitchers should be a fire-able offense.
Allowing Lincecum to go past 100-110 pitches is criminally stupid and careless. Why wouldn’t you want to err on the side of caution?
And let’s not forget that the team still won’t force Lincecum to ice his shoulder after his starts. How can you let him make that call? Ice is put on the shoulder as an anti-inflammatory exercise. We’re talking about a universally accepted practice that has been proven to work. How is Lincecum able to make the decision that he, out of every athlete that’s ever lived, isn’t susceptible to having his muscles swell up and become inflamed after strenuous physical work?
Again, given that this team is years away from contention, nothing but protecting these players should matter. If that means “baby” them, then yes, “baby” them. What do you have to gain allowing Lincecum to throw 120-plus pitches? Nothing. You have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.
Only idiots would treat this young player this way. Uninformed, thoughtless, idiots.
UPDATE: OK, so you do have some “proof” that icing arms isn’t quite as efficacious as one might assume, although it seems clear that the views by Dick Mills represent the work of someone who is operating outside of baseball.
Nonetheless, it appears that it is I that has been “proven” wrong, and as such, I stand corrected. Thanks to Giants Rain Man for his efforts to keep me, and my readers informed.
In my defense, I will reduce my argument to the following:
Lincecum, as our most important player, needs to be treated like such. It appears to me that the boys in the dugout are not being as careful with him as they could, or should.
18 Backtalkers
i would like to note that bochy did the exact same thing to peavy, and before his tenure with sd was over, many thought peavy’s career was over (remember that awful appearance in the playoffs?)
peavy is now ok, but all of last year, it seems he was on a stringent bud black pitch count
for someone who alledgedly works well with pitchers, bochy is truly a doof
Bullshit! There is no “repeat no” medical evidence that icing an arm after pitching is actually good for the arm. In fact some medical expects think it might actually be bad because it restricts to blood flow required for the muscles to recover properly. It is time for Lincecum and Cain to both start stretching out. they are never going to become the studs we all hope and expect if there do not stretch out to be able to pitch 120 pitches in a single game from time to time.
Exactly what I was going to say.
“Prove” it. You got a study, some doctor, scientist, sports kinesiologist, anybody?
http://www.pitching.com/article/the-myth-of-baseball-pitchers-icing-why-ice-is-not-nice/
No it is your turn to provide support for your position other then that is what most pitchers do. I think you will be suprised to find that their really isn’t any.
Here is more.
http://www.pitching.com/article/should-pitchers-ice-after-they-pitch-not-according-to-the-research/
Timmy’s Dad Chris Lincecum;
“I get so sick and tired about them talking about how he’s going to break down. I’ve heard that for years, and he’s not. All he needs to do is keep his core muscles in shape and all his hinges loose, and he’ll be good for a long, long time.”
and
“Why would you ice your arm after pitching? It’s just blood rushing to it. Would you ice your penis after using it?
Well, San Francisco……
john, you gotta get off the ice crap tho
he has never iced the arm
not only that, he is able to go out an play long toss the day after a start
now look, that may change….but i wouldnt force him into it
oh, and icing didnt stop schmidt from blowing out his arm
Lincecum and Lefty
by Joe Sheehan | Baseball Prospectus
Remember the 1972 Phillies? I don’t, either. I was a year old, and unlike Rany Jazayerli, I was not already in third grade at that age. The ‘72 Phils, however, get talked about quite a bit because of one very special pitcher. Left-hander Steve Carlton joined the team near the end of February, traded away from the Cardinals to resolve a contract dispute. The tall southpaw had been a good, but not great pitcher in his career to date, making three All-Star teams and winning 20 games in 1971, but struggling enough with his command—207 walks in two seasons—to keep his ERAs in ‘70 and ‘71 relatively high.
In ‘72, pitching for the worst team in the league, Carlton had the season of his—or many others’—life, throwing 346 1/3 innings, completing 30 of his 41 starts, winning both the NL Cy Young Award and the pitching triple crown. In a season shortened by a player strike, Carlton was the winning pitcher in just 46 percent of the Phillies’ wins, and the starter in just shy of half of them. When he pitched, the Phillies were 29-11 (.760). When he didn’t, they were 30-86 (.259). The Phillies allowed 93 runs in games Carlton started, 2.7 per game. They allowed 542 in the other 116 games, an average of 4.7, or close to twice as many per game. He was the team’s only All-Star, and arguably its only good player.
Thirty-six years later, we may be dancing this dance again. Tim Lincecum is to the 2008 Giants what Steve Carlton was to those 1972 Phillies—an ace among deuces, a man among men, the only thing keeping the team out of Triple-A.
So far this season, the Giants are 5-0 when he pitches, 6-13 when he doesn’t. They’re +9 in run differential and have allowed just seven runs in the five games (1.4 R/G) in which Lincecum pitched. They’re -41 and have allowed 99 runs (5.3 R/G) in the other 19.
Lincecum is the entire reason for this. Supported by 12 runs in his four starts, he’s held the opposition to just three runs in those outings. Throw in a relief appearance in his season debut (an odd game in which Bochy initially held Lincecum out due to the threat of a rain delay), and he’s allowed just four runs in 29 1/3 innings, striking out 34 men. He has yet to allow a home run and has given up just five doubles among his 27 hits allowed. Yes, 27.
That’s beceause, despite a great strikeout rate, the Giants’ porous defense rates 27th in the NL in Defensive Efficiency, and that has helped Lincecum allow a .380 batting average on balls in play.
His numbers could and should be better if not for the Giants’ inability to prevent singles. The return of Omar Vizquel won’t help all that much; he’s not that much better with the glove then Brian Bocock is, and the Giants’ real problem is on the right side of the infield, where they have just one marginally average defender on the days that Rich Aurilia plays first base.
Tim Lincecum is 4-0, 1.23 despite getting virtually no support from his offense or his defense. He’s the closest thing to a one-man team in MLB—his combined pitching and hitting VORP is 15.3, and the rest of the Giants have combined for 10.7.
He is, like Carlton was in 1972, a superior talent on a team not remotely worthy of him. I half expect that they slip little pieces of paper into the game programs at AT&T Park now—”The role of Barry Bonds will be played by Tim Lincecum.”
The Giants aren’t even as good as their 11-13 mark would indicate. One of the quirks in their season to date is that they’ve been very lucky. They’ve outperformed their runs scored and runs allowed by 2.7 games, second only to the Marlins. The Giants are 6-4 in one-run games, +2 runs, and 5-9, -34 in the other 14.
When they’re tied late in the game, I’m actually rooting for them; I would be pretty entertained to see the worst team in baseball, or at least a contender for the crown, play .600 ball in one-run games while losing the rest by close to three runs a contest. It will make for a great teaching point about how team quality disassociates from performance the closer the games are. The crowd that insists performance in one-run games is about knowing how to win would have a fun time explaining how a team that goes 34-76 when the game isn’t close is 33-19 when it is because of some special character they possess.
Even if that happens, on every fifth day, the Giants will be a lot of fun to watch thanks to Lincecum. The right-hander is rapidly reaching that Pedro Martinez level where any game he pitches is the game to watch that night, with the potential for 15 strikeouts, a no-hitter, or one of those shutout/two-homer combinations that puts the “one-man team” issue into sharp relief.
Maybe we should ice Zito’s arm…can’t really make him any worse, can it? I almost wish he’d just go Steve Blass on us. This is just ridiculous. He’s worse than Woody would be if he were still pitching.
LOL… You’d better believe the Giants are looking for any loopholes in his contract right about now.
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Dr. Mike Marshall, who set major league records for most appearances in a season for a pitcher (106), most consecutive games pitched (13) and most innings pitched in a season (208) states on his website drmikemarshall.com that he never iced his arm and never advises any pitcher to ice their arms.
couple of things… I may be the only person under the age of 65 to still read the magazine, but Baseball Digest this month had some great words from Leo Mazzone regarding young pitchers, saying, in effect, that minor league pitchers are not getting enough innings in, in other words building up to a typical major league workload, and that’s why there are so many young pitchers getting injured.
So, I say, as echoed above, what the hell difference does it make to pitch Lincecum more than absolutely necessary? Will it be that one game out at the end of the season where we miss the playoffs? Very very foolish not be very careful with Lincecum and Cain - I watched the game in question, and in pure baseball terms, yes I would have left him in as they did, but not in a “give a shit about his career” terms. Absolutely pointless this year to risk injury to win ballgames.
Secondly, and looking at the line score tells it all - I know this was recently a topic, but something is definitely wrong with Zito. I didn’t see the game, just read the boxscore, but there has to be more going on than “lost 5 mph off his fastball”. Okay, he’s not worth a gazillion dollars a year, granted, but his starts are becoming more and more of a travesty. Minus an outside cause, he is not this bad.
I was a pitcher, (I’ve eaten myself off of the mound, a David Wells type) and I never iced my arm. I also never pitched with pitch counts, mostly because no one cared, least of all me. I feel like the only person who knows how a pitcher’s arm feels is the pitcher. If my arm felt bad I stoppped throwing until it felt better. If there’s a structural problem in a guy’s elbow or shoulder it’s gonna break. No amount of rest is gonna help. I’m in the “the more throwing the better camp”, it just makes sense to me that the more you do something the stronger you get.
After saying all that, I do feel that the day that Lincecum was held out from starting due to the weather and was then brought in in relief was bad. It’s my understanding that he came in and pitched, there was then a weather delay, and then he was brought back in to pitch again after the delay. I would not have done that with my arm and mine wasn’t worth nearly as much as Lincecum’s.
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The person we should be listening to the most is his Father. He’s spent his whole life working and molding this kid into the pitcher he is today. I agree that we shouldn’t press him as much as we have this year. But, the kid is a horse…according to his Dad…let’s let him run a bit every now and then.
I’m not trying to quibble, but I’d argue that Schmidt was still pretty good after that 144 (not 143) pitch 1-0 game against the Cubs in May 2004 in which he struck out 13 (not 17). He also had 4 (not 1) different months after May 2004 in which he had an era under 3.00 (June & August 2004, May & June 2006). He also had 3 additional months after May 2004 in which he had an era under 3.50. What I’d really look at is the 124 pitch, 16k game against the Marlins on June 6, 2006 (yeah, 666) as the true beginning of the end. His era really took off from that point on, as did his whip and he never was consistently the same after that great game, though he did have a few more highlights.