Reader Salisbury Steak has a lot to say about my rants, in particular, he thinks the Nathan for AJ deal was defensible at the time:
Look at the circumstances of that deal when it was made: AJ was 27, had hit for average and led a playoff-caliber pitching staff in Minnesota. Nathan had had one good year coming off his injury and a poor playoff showing. The Giants needed a young catcher to replace Benito Santiago. The probability, given baseball history, was that Nathan’s year was a fluke, not an indication that he was going to become a dominant closer.
You can say that Sabean went after yet another guy who didn’t get on base. You can say that he ignored AJ’s reputation for being a dick. And you can make a case that it wasn’t a good idea to take a chance on AJ arbitration-wise because he never indicated San Francisco as a town he’d like play in. But anyone who acts like it was obvious that AJ wouldn’t sign, that he was as much of a douche as he actually turned out to be, or that Nathan was going to become so dominant, is full of shit. Sabean made a deal that turned out horribly for the Giants, but it was not obvious at the time that it would; you can’t blame him for how badly it turned out because at the time the move seemed to be much more justifiable (even if you disagreed with it at the time).
As for the argument that this is an example of Sabean’s having no long-term plan, I don’t buy it. Benito was 35+. AJ was 27, and Sabean’s intention was to install him as the long-term catcher for the Giants. How is that not long-term?
I haven’t made the argument that Sabean doesn’t plan long-term, I made the argument that his plans, long-term or otherwise, are horseshit, as he ignores conventional, and/or new-age analysis; and that he has little understanding of a baseball players’ value. The Giants had a young catcher in Yorvit Torrealba, and a quick look at the two players stats pages shows that the difference between the two could hardly have been worth what we ended up giving up for AJ. Even given all the pointless bench time he suffered through as a Giant, Torrealba’s 162 game average stats are almost identical to what AJ did in ‘03, and to what he gave us in ‘04, and Torrealba was already here, costing us the minor league minimum.
In ‘03, the Giants got nice production from the catchers slot, ranking 6th in runs scored, 8th in OPS. In ‘04, with AJ, we dropped to 8th in runs scored, and in OPS. In ‘05, with Matheny, we were 8th in runs scored, and 12th in OPS. In ‘06, with Matheny missing most of the season, and Alfonzo getting plenty of time, the Giants dropped to 13th in runs scored and up to 8th in OPS. In ‘07 we had a red hot Molina for the whole season, as Alfonzo sat, a lot. We were 8th again in OPS, and 15th in runs scored. In those four seasons, in which the Giants traded away good young pitching and spent over $30 million dollars trying to upgrade the catchers slot, our catchers production remained right in the middle of the league, ranging from 49 to 62 runs scored, our OPS from .671 to .746. In ‘02, when Benito was the NLCS MVP, we were 4th in runs scored and OPS, 73 runs scored and a .746 OPS. What, exactly, was Sabean trying to replace? 11 runs?
Fiddling while Rome burned? You think? While Sabean spent his time, energy and team resources trying to upgrade a position of league-wide weakness (not one NL team has gotten 100 runs from the catchers slot in that time), the Giants were getting league-worst production from centerfield, rightfield, 1st base, shortstop, and third base; AND EVERY ONE OF THOSE SLOTS SHOULD HAVE BEEN FILLED WHILE HE, INSTEAD, FOCUSED ON THE POINTLESS!
He threw $18 million dollars on the ground in front of Mike Matheny. Why? Because Matheny’s the best defensive catcher in the world, he saves 100 runs a year, he lowers your team ERA…. blah blah blah. Bull. Shit. None of those statements can be justified by any statistical analysis of any kind, but what does Sabean care, as he repeated them, over and over; to be broadcast by the ridiculous sportswriters who cover this team every day. So then, Matheny gets hurt, and the Giants send Alfonzo out there everyday, and what happens? While Sabean spends the entire season telling us how much the Giants miss Matheny, Alfonzo rolls out 31 extra base hits in a half season, with a slugging percentage 100 points better than Mike the Human Glove. (The team’s second half ERA went up from 4.32 to 5.00, and the team’s second half WHIP went from 1.40 to 1.41) How does our illustrious GM respond to that? He goes out and gives Bengie Molina $6 million a year to replace Alfonzo, who just ran out a .775 OPS. What did the Giants get for that $6 million? Molina ran out a .731 OPS, and was obviously the slowest player in all of baseball; and a pretty lousy catcher to boot, (15 errors, second most in the league, 12th fewest put outs, 15th best fielding percentage).
Plan? How is that a plan? One minute he says he wants to go young, but the guy he trades for is older than the guy he has. Then he says he wants defense and game-calling, but when that guy gets hurt he goes and gets the worst defensive catcher in the game. All the while ignoring the guys he already has, who are cheap and could easily do the job. In the meantime, the team has actual holes that could be, and should be filled by real players, with the ability to actually drive in and score runs and what does Sabean do about that?
Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Ryan Klesko, Rich Aurilia, Dustin Hermanson, the four-hundred year old man, Michael Tucker, Edgardo Alfonzo, Neifi-Fucking-Perez, Jeffrey Hammonds, Deivi Cruz, Dustan Mohr, Alex Sanchez, Steve Finley, Mark Sweeney, Jose Vizcaino, to list just a handful of the nobodies, has-beens, and never-was’s that Sabean has had the audacity to suggest were baseball players.
Knee-jerk? These are issues that I have been railing about for five years. Sabean and the rest of the Giants brain-trust have been blind to the fact that their offense has been driven in the last ten years by the greatest offensive player of all time. They have ignored the fact that offense is driven by getting on base, and hitting for power, (even though they’ve been watching the greatest combination of those two skill sets in one player for the whole fucking time) and they have been blind to the reality that just because someone has been a major league player already, they do not necessarily have value.
They have replaced good players with worse ones for the whole time I’ve been writing about them, and if they have a plan, or have had one; IT IS NOT OBVIOUS TO ANYONE WHO KNOWS ANYTHING ABOUT BASEBALL. There is enough of a chance that Sabean will trade Cain or Lincecum for some “veteran” that everyone who really cares about this team runs to their computer every morning out of fear that it may have already happened while they were asleep. That tells you all you need to know about Sabean’s “plan.”
UPDATE: You wanna get really scared?
…. the Jays’ offer of right fielder Alex Rios, 26, for pitcher Tim Lincecum, 23, is being considered by the San Francisco Giants.
The Jays proposed the deal at last week’s winter meetings. As of yesterday evening, the Giants had not replied.
Lincecum, a second-year power pitcher who’s been nicknamed “Franchise” by his San Francisco teammates, is considered one of the best young arms in the game.
Rios, a popular two-time all-star, has been Toronto’s most dependable bat over the past couple of seasons. The trade carries risks for both clubs, but would give the Jays one of the most formidable starting rotations in baseball.
On the weekend, Giants GM Brian Sabean told a San Francisco radio station that he planned to resolve the Lincecum-Rios affair in the near future.
“By the end of the weekend, maybe the first of the week, we’re going to have to flesh this out one way or the other,” Sabean said, according the San Jose Mercury-News.
See, I’m not crazy. Here’s more:
…. The Giants are, again, sitting on the sideline watching other teams deal. Detroit not only got the slugger the Giants could use – Miguel Cabrera – but the Tigers also got dynamic pitcher and Bay Area native Dontrelle Willis. The acquisition of Willis could have eased the pain of giving up Cain or Lincecum. But the Giants are incapable of such dynamic deals because they have few young prospects to trade.
One of the reasons is that the Giants didn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2004 or 2005. They traded those picks as compensation for free-agent acquisitions. In the 2005 draft, the Marlins took their 22nd pick as compensation for Armando Benitez. That year the Giants didn’t draft until the 131st pick, in the fourth round (their second pick went for the rights to Mike Matheny and their third for the rights to Omar Vizquel). In 2004, their top pick was sacrificed for the rights to Michael Tucker.
(italics mine)
I could run out about forty sarcastic remarks here, but these horrible, horrible sentences speak for themselves.
Plan? We don’t need no stinkin’ plan.
19 Backtalkers
I feel that certain issues keep getting conflated in this discussion, so I’m going to try to separate them:
1. It is a knee-jerk reaction to criticize Sabean with the intensity that you did based on some conjecture and a quote. This doesn’t mean that all of Sabean’s moves have been good, or that to criticize any of them is wrong, or that there isn’t some justifiable cause for concern that Sabean would actually trade Lincecum for Rios straight up. My point was that, even given his history of making bad moves, I think it’s only prudent that we reserve our intense ire for when he actually makes them, not when we hear that some reporter thinks he might make them. Otherwise, it’s just hysterics. Now, the more that comes out in trustworthy reports that he’s giving the deal serious consideration, the more my sense of frustration, built up over the last four seasons, begins to bubble back up. But I’m going to wait until the deal happens to really voice my frustration.
2. The “Sabean has spent the last several years engaging in moves that have seriously impaired this franchise” argument is not one that I disagree with. He has spent far too much money on far too much mediocrity, overvalued service time in the big leagues at the expense of actual talent to the point of absurdity, and what turns me off most about it is that he has maintained an arrogant attitude throughout it all. I resent being considered part of the lunatic fringe because Sabean is too unsophisticated for whatever reason to understand that there is a whole new world of highly effective metrics out there to help him build a team.
I think the case you make regarding the catching situation is a good one and again, I don’t necessarily disagree with it. I never said what I thought about Sabean’s plan, I just said that he had one, wrongheaded and misinformed though it may have been.
3. My problem with discussion of the AJ/Nathan trade is that it is almost always used as an extreme example of Sabean’s ineptitude, and I resent the intellectual dishonesty of that. It’s not fair to take the results of a trade, ignore the circumstances that dictated that trade in the first place, and then praise or blame the GM accordingly. Like I said, many Giants fans though the deal was a bad move, but no one thought we were going to end up giving away one of the best closers in the game for an asshole who couldn’t get on base, hit into too many double plays and never wanted to play for the Giants in the first place (well, maybe a case could be made against the third point).
There are plenty of legitimate examples of Sabean’s ineptitude, the Neifi Perez signing chief among them in my opinion. To give Neifi any amount of money to play baseball for your team, and worse, to actually claim in any way that he’s a good hitter, is beyond belief. But the AJ/Nathan trade, no matter how you want to parse it, was never that incomprehensible.
Sal,
On points 1 and 2, we seem to be in agreement. The Nathan deal is just the pinnacle of Sabean’s ineptitude. I’m not saying that I KNEW it was bad minute one. I bring it up because it had so many earmarks of a bad deal. Why get AJ AT ALL? Why deal two young pitchers? How about Accardo for Hillebrand? Big free agent money for two lousy fucking catchers who weren’t needed. Watching this team, it’s obvious that, as a GM, he has no fucking idea what he’s doing, and it both terrifies and infuriates me.
We wasted the best player of all-time, because our GM was unable to identify our weaknesses, and/or unable to capitalize on our strengths. Would I have a different story to tell if the Angels hadn’t come back in Game Six? Fuck yes. But it happened, and now the failings of ‘00, ‘01, and ‘03 are more grating, more disappointing, and more heartbreaking. For something like 5 years, we were thisclose. Sabean is why we didn’t make it over the hump, Bonds is the reason we were on the cusp. My two cents, anyway.
By the way, thanks for being a great contributor. I appreciate your visits, really.
i think what bothers people so much is that sabean’s moves seem to be made out of fear
fear that torri couldnt be a starting catcher….fear that lazer couldnt be a starting catcher….fear that nathan wasnt really as good as he showed….fear that liriano would get injured again (ok, that one did happen)…..fear that boof would never make it to the bigs….etc
and i do not believe that starting in 04, sabean really had a long term strategy, except to draft more pitching and hope to god he could trade it for hitters
and ya, the accardo trade still makes no sense
and salibury….werent you the least put off when aj opted for arbitration rather than to sign a long term? that happened right out of the gate, and did indeed indicate that aj really didnt want to be a giant
and remember, this trade came on the heels of sabean signing crap instead of going after vlad
never forget that he outbid himself for el fatso, had to get neifi, etc
and lest we forget, the nathan trade was indeed the beginning of the downfall of the pen
im sorry, but a good gm does not put himself between a rock and a hard place
One frequently overlooked aspect of the infamous AJ trade: the entire baseball world knew that the Twins HAD to get rid of Pierzynski, as Joe Mauer was waiting in the wings to take over the catcher’s job. Yet given that lack of leverage, the Giants still gave up a hell of a lot.
One other hypothesis- perhaps Felipe managed to persuade Sabean that Nathan’s poor outing in the playoffs was more indicative of his real ability than his record of dominance displayed during the 2003 season. I do remember Alou yanking him after one at bat in a move of sheer panic that probably wasn’t justified.
I feel I really should point out that the only player of consequence in that trade has been Nathan… that Sabean gave away the farm is a huge exaggeration. On the other hand, I always liked Nathan a lot – trading him was very premature. One could see it two ways, I suppose – John seems to be saying that predicting the future is a very important job requirement for a GM,and it’s hard to argue with that. No-one can predict the future,but nevertheless, a GM needs to – or at least be able to see something obvious that no-one else can. I do think it’s tremendously illogical to say that if Nathan had turned out lousy and Pierzinski a perennial .300 hitter and a helluva guy that the trade was any better or worse AT THE TIME. Obviously, if things had turned out as was expected, we wouldn’t be even talking about it now.
My real suspicion is that Sabean is star-struck and too cautious (fearful said Uncle Joe) – that’s always been my reason for Michael Tucker – people knew his name, just like Pierzinski,and it “looks” like a good trade if you get a “name”. Which is pretty pathetic or at least unwise,anyway. I am SO glad Andruw Jones turned down the Giants.
And just to be provocative, how about the idea that the Giant’s clubhouse was a bunch of Barry-led HGH-using pricks and Pierzinski spoke his mind? Is Brett Tomko the great soothsayer of our generation? Has anybody ever said WHY he kneed the trainer in the groin?
i disagree that nathan was the only important part that we gave away
had we held onto liriano and boof, are you gonna tell me that packaging the both at a later date wouldnt have brought us more than just an aj?
i knew the trade was a loser when i went to different twinkies boards and very few of the fans were upset
and its not so much sabean giving away the farm, as the domino effect that occured after that trade
being forced to overspend in the catcher position…being forced to overspend in the closer position…..
both those issues caused sabean to be unable to afford a bat anywhere else in the lineup
it was that trade that led to what we saw on the field last season
sabean again overspent when he went after zito (christ, look how the yankees handled boras…they ripped the man’s nuts off…hes now a neuter) and the zito deal is gonna hurt us for the long haul too…even if he is able to bounce back from last season….you never want an aquisiton to be an untradable commodity
and i reiterate…this team makes moves out of fear
I just wanted to say that you nailed me perfectly. I wake up every morning and check the sites, praying to God that Sabean hasn’t traded Lincecum while I slept.
It’s a recurring nightmare.
oh, boof may never be a major league regular, and liriano gave the twins 2-3 months of one season before his arm fell off – exactly the expectations for them. When is later? During those two months when Liriano could pitch? I would argue that NOW they’re worth less than they were THEN. So, if we had Liranio and Boof we would have yet another 6th closer and a guy on the DL with, whatever, 10 wins in the last four years.
And I don’t think Sabean was “forced” to do anything – certainly didn’t have to do it to guarantee the Giants a pennant, because it didn’t. He wasn’t “forced” to give Torrealba the shaft, nor was he “forced” to sign Benitez – Benitez got injured, which of course was unforeseen, but his career is filled with lousy years that don’t coincide with contract years.
Sabean just road the Barry train to get asses in the seats, that’s all. The Giants have plenty of money – that’s just PR to pacify the fans. I don’t think that anyone would say (except maybe Bud) that a major league franchise isn’t a license to make money.
The minor-leagues system is pathetic – that’s why the team sucks. Nothing against the individual young players we have, but how many former Giants farmhands are productive major leaguers? If a system is supposed to, say, produce one a year, one would be hard-pressed to create a decent team from the guys that the Giants traded away either. One would be hard-pressed to even fill out a lineup of regulars. Having to use Joe Nathan as the one shining example is a very sad state of affairs.
Honestly, the thing that is more unforgivable was not trading away Jason Schmidt for anything and then just letting him walk in free agency. Sabean did it not once, but twice… a move that was incredibly inept, I can’t believe he’s still working as a GM. At the trade deadline each season the Giants has a LOSING record. My god, it’s still painful to think about…
okay, I’m SHOCKED by this news, and I mean that in a good way…
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7556916
Sabean just signed Aaron Rowand to a 5-year $60 million deal. He just turned 30, came off his best season, and I feel is beginning the prime of his career (30-35). He’s also a gritty guy that you’d like to have in your club house. Honestly, given the contracts that other centerfielders like Juan Pierre have received in recent years (and what Andruw Jones just nabbed), I’d call this a great signing.
Maybe its just me but I hate the signing of Rowand. Granted its completely within the Giants ability to do something even WORSE like they usually do, but we basically just gave 12 million dollars to the CF equivalent of Pedro Feliz. Good defense, Low OBP for his career, .280 avg or so, marginal power. Its just really sad they don’t target any young players via trade that are available. But I guess its hard to do that when you keep giving up 1st round picks and can’t seem to figure out how to develop any viable young players.
Well, Pedro Feliz is a 32-year-old with a career .288 OBA while Rowland is a 30-year-old with a career .343 OBA, so I don’t see these two players as similar. But the Rowland move strikes me as pointless, since by the time the Giants get things turned around he will have passed his expiration date as a useful player. And if this signing shifts Roberts to LF and blocks Schierholtz from a regular job — well, this is a firable offense in my opinion. I mean, to spend $60 million on a FA who blocks the path of the only legitimate prospect in your organization who is close to the majors?! That’s not just dumb, that’s Sabean-dumb.
The Giants sign Rowland…and plan to move the last year’s over-priced FA signing (Roberts) to LF.
The Angels sign Hunter…and plan to move last year’s over-priced FA signing (Mathews Jr.) to LF.
The Dodgers sign Andrew Jones…and plan to move last year’s over-priced FA signing (Pierre) to LF.
What is with the GMs from the great state of California?? Does living on the West Coast make you stupid, or something?
No, they just all think that LF is where you put the people who can’t hit….. oh wait
I just love that LF is getting downgraded from Bonds to Roberts, and that Sabean thinks that signing Rowand is going to help that problem. I don’t care what we do at this point, but at the least we should trade Roberts, even if it means we eat most of the salary, just so that some young players with even a slightly chance of becoming MLB players can play in LF instead of Dave “Speed and Defense” Roberts.
However, there was a silver lining in the best quote of that article:
“”With this move, we will no longer listen to any offers for Cain and Lincecum,” Sabean said. “We know the value of both individuals believe me, maybe more so now that we’ve gone through this exercise. They might be the hottest two names in baseball.”"
THANK YOU BASEBALL GODS! I no longer have to wake up every day worried about no Lincecum in 2008! Aaron Rowand, I now think you were the best signing of 2007, if you made Sabean not trade Cain and Lincey.
That’s another big part of the signing that made me excited… we have “enough” outfielders, so with Rowand the odds of us trading Lincecum for Rios just dropped dramatically.
On the other hand, I think Rowand is a good piece of the puzzle. He is by no means a team savior, but in three years from now it’s possible we’ll have turned things around and he could be a part of that. I guess my point is, I’m happy that at least Sabean has stopped making panic moves — whether or not you like Rowand this one is defendable.
so basically its goodbye to nate, freddie and/or raj
why am i not excited about this signing
in fact, im pretty ticked about it
FIRE SABEAN
So that gives the Giants how many outfielders now? What a joke. Mouth gaping, jaw-dropping mental retardation. What a blithering fucking idiot. Bochy is just as bad saying that Rowand will help “bring the warrior mentality back to the Giants clubhouse.”
Uhm. Excuse the hell out of me Mr. Potato Head…but what the fuck would you know about the Giants clubhouse? You’ve been here for one season surrounded by a bunch of ex-Padre washouts and retirees during that time, and you’re traipsing out crippled cliches about “returning to a Warrior mentality’ in the Giants clubhouse because your fuckwidget idiotic boss just gave 60 million dollars to some over-rated middle of the pack outfielder on a team that already has 15 other outfielders that can’t hit worth a shit compared to the one they just ran out of town?
This franchise is beyond hopeless. Brian Sabaen has surpassed former 49er General Manager Joe Thomas for being the most arrogant AND the most ignorant General Manager in San Francisco Sports franchise history. The situation is not even laughable anymore. Given a choice between free box seats at PacBell and attending a seminar on multi-level marketing, the true path to God and the Hereafter, I would choose the seminar because it would involve a hell of a lot less fraud.
More savvy veterans. More grittiness. Another 30 something established fair to middling mercenary with a way too long term contract. Putrid collection of welfare recipients in tight pants. These guys are more fucking rancid than the Tampa Rays dipped in whale shit. The more I think about it, the more I think the fans should sue Magowan, Baer and Sabaen for false advertising, copyright infringement, and misappropriation of public funds for attempting to pawn off this collection of borderline paraplegics as a Major League Baseball Team. As a matter of fact, instead of wasting their fucking time and my taxpayer money trying to get a chickenshit binge and purge conviction on Barry Bonds, The Federal Attornies could get themselves some hella good publicity by indicting the fucking crooked and incompetent twats in the Giants Front Office. PacBell Park should be surrounded in yellow tape as a motherfucking crime-scene. A conviction would be difficult simply because the fucking rockpiles that the assholes in the front office use for brains, don’t leave trace evidence.
Watching this team next year, should be about as constructive as going to the zoo and watching a monkey fuck a football. It will be more rewarding to beat the bushes with a burlap bag at midnight hunting snipe, then it would to expect anything positive to come from this collection of bland, going-through-the-motions suckbag losers.
A god damned 1st year little league coach has more sense than to build a roster with nothing but outfielders, none of which have any power. This is the stupidest roster I have ever seen at any level, anywhere. How fucking stupid. Like Sabean could even think about trading any of them from anywhere remotely resembling a position of strength
I always love it when +mia posts.
While I agree that Rowand is a strange signing, any signing that removes Cain and Lincy from the table is a good one and fully worth 60M dollars. The only question is if Sabean can figure out how to move Roberts, Davis or Lewis for anything of value. Out of the 3 I’d like to keep Davis, as he’s likely to be good off the bench, a good defensive replacement and not a bad rest replacement. However, I don’t see Roberts being traded for anything other than a partial salary dump, and Lewis might bring back a mediocre AA prospect, at his age.
Regardless, I agree 100% that Bonds should be our LF this year. Rowand and Bonds in the same lineup, with a 3B/1B combo that isn’t near to the worst in the league actually turns this team into an underdog for playoffs, rather than a dead cat.
For the record, Rowand recently turned just 30, so I think putting the 30-something tag on him is a bit of a stretch. He did just win a gold glove so he’s hardly some hobbling veteran.