Now that it’s clear that Sabean and Magowan are holding hands as they dance through the poppies, let’s think about what we can expect next season….
A-Rod? Is it even remotely possible that the Giants can go mega-free agent two years in a row? I don’t see how. He’s gonna command something like a seven-year, $200 million dollar contract, around $30 million per season. If you have one hitter and one pitcher makng $45 million, and you need to keep your payroll around $95 million; well, you do the math. Morris, Durham, Roberts, Winn, Molina, and Aurilia are all signed through next season, for a total of some $37 million or so. I know we’re supposed to think Bonds’ $15 million comes off the books next season, but are you sure?
If he walks, where’s he gonna play? Anaheim? Come on. Not in Oakland, I can tell you that. Sure, he’s a Beane-type player, but he’s also Barry Bonds, and he’s gonna end up leading the NL in walks, OBP, slugging and OPS. That means he ain’t gonna play anywhere for $5 or $8 million. The Yankees don’t need him. Neither do the Red Sox. You think Bonds is gonna play in Kansas City or Milwaukee or someplace like that? No way.
Given all of that, if the Grand Jury fails to indict him this summer –which I believe will happen– Bonds will be out from under the anvil, and I think he’s back next year on his way to 3,000 hits.
Which means no A-Rod.
Which means more of the same.
Sports Illustrated…
I couldn’t understand some parts of this article, but it sounds interesting…
Yeah I agree. It seems to me that it comes down to one thing for A-Rod. Is he really that sick of New York offset by how realistic a World Series ring is over the next two years? If so he’ll leave. A contender will have to pay 30 mil per and a semi contender 35.
Guarenteed he’s coming back. He’s got 2902 hits as of today. By the end of the season he’ll be around 2950. Magowan has made it obvious that he’ll pay what Barry asks for. Be prepared for Bonds next year with almost the same contract as this year.
A-Rod is not coming to SF. Boras made it clear that the bidding was going to start at 30 mil per year. Other teams will make a push and the price will range around 35-37 mil per year. Which means it’ll take 45-47 mil per year to play here because NOBODY wants to play in San Francisco. That’s why we’re paying Zito 126 mil. It was so far over everyone elses price he had to take it. But make no mistake it had to be that far above every other teams price because he didn’t want to play here either.
The only hope is the Giants offer every player on the roster for trade except Cain and Lincecum and hope they can get back a couple bags of Fritos for most of them and play the Fresno squad plus Bonds next year. That way he gets 3000 before mid-season then agrees to go on the DL for the rest of the year instead of trotting out on the field with a bunch of losers.
Well, not to sound too smarty-pants, but no one is paying A-Rod $40 million a season. No way.
Barry Bonds signing up to play another year in this lineup is like Paul McCartney coming out of retirement to join the Spice Girls reunion tour. You’ve go to love your job an awful lot to do it under those conditions…
Barry Bonds deserves at least 60% of the payroll
– The Mariners lose A-Rod, Griffey, and Randy – win 116 games.
– The A’s lose Giambi – win more games the following year.
Not a high paid star among either remaining roster.
Of course, this requires a GM that can evaluate and procure young talent and an owner not addicted to anything except fielding a winning team.
That’s what the paying fans deserve.
“the season he signed”… that is, 1993.
And another thing, I knew when Barry signed that this season he wouldn’t be as good or as healthy as he was in the season he signed. Might have been a good idea to have developed at least one hitter from the minor leagues in the meantime.
Where does anyone get the idea that Barry’s day is done? Do you mean Barry is no longer the best player in MLB by 2 standard deviations from the mean?
He’s the best player in the team and still probably the best hitter in the league when he is fully healthy (which is only about 75% of the games he’s played).
I’d even take back the “probably”.
The problem with the Giants is not even close to being (the good) Barry. It’s that at least two and probably 4 starters on the team are below replacement level. The catcher is a hacker. The second baseman is just barely average. The right fielder hits like a center fielder and should be playing center field had Sabean not signed an over-the-hill oft-injured waste.
Doesn’t know how to evaluate or develop offensive talent. That’s the problem. The best player on the team is not the problem and can never be. It’s how the other $80 mill is spent. I can’t believe that anyone could watch a Giants series and not think that Barry Bonds deserves at least 60% of the payroll because most of the other guys shouldn’t even be on major league rosters and Bonds knows what he’s doing.
One other problem is that Barry is playing too much – he shouldn’t be playing more than 4 times a week (5 if there are days off). but he’s on pace for a lot more than that.
But you’re right: The problem is the rest of the lineup. There’s no other player even close to being above average, and several that are playing at or below replacement level — and unless we can foist off some vets on a contender or are willing to trade a young pitcher, that’s not going to change.
From 199-2004, Sabean surrounded Bonds with a usable supporting cast (and, in cases like Jeff Kent, much better than usable). Now? Pure drek.
Steven:
Living in the NYC area, I don’t see every game. But it strikes me that Barry is making a lot of outs on pitches he used to ignore. I don’t have charts and grafs, but I’d bet he’s seeing even fewer hittable pitches than ever. After all, why pitch to Barry when you can work around him and try your hand against Durham, Aurilia, Klesko (no power, good OBP = no threat). Molina is a hacker who makes Felix look like a patient hitter.
This organization does need a major overhaul, starting with Magowan realizing that Barry’s day is done — the team can’t be centered around him any more. Dick Tidrow, Jack Hiatt & Co. need to be replaced with scouts who can find more than the occasional pitching prospect. The bill for all the thrown-away No.1 picks and inept drafts has come due, and the Giants are going to pay — big-time.
I’d hire DePodesta because the organization needs an overhaul. But for the next year or two, it’s just a matter of re-arranging the deck chairs on the “Titanic.”
Have the Giants not already paid big time since 2003? How much worse can it get? To me the most interesting aspect of Sabean’s return is how it relates to
Bonds or no Bonds in 08. If the both of them return, then doesn’t that send a clear signal that ownership and the general manager have both been complicit in the demise of the team? On the other hand, if they don’t bring Bonds back,
doesn’t that suggest that Sabean has, to a large extent, been doing the bidding of management, and that his (Sabean’s) return is contingent on getting a freer hand? That still doesn’t excuse the baffling mistakes like Michael Tucker, Piersynski, etc. because it strains credulity that Magonwan and Baer got their hands dirty on that level.
I don’t see every game either … that’s one reason why the data is useful. If Barry is making a lot of outs on pitches he used to ignore, why has his percent of swinging strikes stayed the same? Why has the percent of pitches swung at stayed the same? Doesn’t jibe with the idea that he’s making outs on pitches he used to ignore. And since his hitting this season so far is better than it was a year ago, it’s hard to see the harm in whatever approach he’s taking. He’s even making fewer outs per plate appearance.
“Barry is swinging at pitches he’d never have swung at previously because he knows he won’t see a thing to hit — not with no one on base in front of hi, and no threat behind him.”
Bonds, pitches per at bat: 2006 3.99, 2007 4.00
Percentage of strikes that were swinging: 2005 10%, 2006 10%, 2007 10%
Percentage of strikeouts that were called: 2006 35%, 2007 57%
Percentage of all pitches swung at: 2005 36%, 2006 35%, 2007 33%
He seems to be doing pretty much what he’s always done, with the exception that he’s being called out on strikes more often, which is the opposite of what your theory would suggest.
Oh and Frank…I don’t know why you’re so optimistic. No one on our team is under performing. You can’t expect 34+ year olds to be putting up their career numbers, none of them will ever return to their very average career numbers, face it. And the years they’re putting up are not by any means outliers, these guys just aren’t that good, I don’t know what Sabean has said that made you think otherwise. You think it’s coincidence that Dave Roberts was the pinch-runner for the Red Sox their WS year? No, the fact is he isn’t good enough to start for any decent team. Last year was an outlier for Durham, he’s a leadoff hitter that’s too old to lead off anymore, Aurilia simply isn’t very good anymore, Omar is getting old and has lost his offensive skills, and WHAT HAS EVER MADE YOU BELIEVE FELIZ CAN DO ANYTHING AT THE PLATE? His constant hacks at breaking balls in the dirt? The double plays he would be hitting into at a record pace if the Giants actually got players on in front of him? Try to come up with any stat that shows Feliz has ever been so much as an average hitter. The truth is this team is not very good and the entire organization needs to be overhauled, from the GM to our minor league system, as well as the players. We have the starting pitching to build for the future, but everything else is a mess. By the way, have you looked at Zito’s contract? We only paid him $10 mil this season, meaning we’re still on the hook for $116 mil over the next 6 years, plus an $18 mil team option/$7 mil buyout, unless he meets certain performance measurements in which case it’s a $18 mil player option/$3.5 mil buyout. Thanks Sabean.
Bonds isn’t even off the books next year, $5.8 mil of his salary this year is deferred until next year, and all of his incentives are deferred until 2009. Just throwing that out there…McGowan needs to go get DePodesta from the Padres organization, Sabean is going to ruin us for years to come.
Actually in total dollars paid in the calander year independent of when earned Barry will be paid the same $15M in 2008 that he is paid in 2007 without even taking into account whatever his 2008 contract might call for.
Barry’s 2002-2006 5 Year 90M deal included $25M defered at $5M per year to 2007 thru 2011. Barry’s 2007 1 Year $15.8M Deal not only has $5.8M defered to 2008 but also has another $4.2M in bonus money that will be completely earned as soon as Barry reaches 525 PAs and is also defered to 2008. Barry is already at 301 PAs and is tracking 567 PAs. Bonds should earn all of his $4.2M in Bonuses which would all be paid in 2008.
So, Barry was paid $5M from his 2002-2006 Contract in 2007 and $10M from his 2007 Contract in 2007 for a total of $15M in 2007. Barry will recieve another $5M of his 2002-2006 Contract in 2008 and another $10M from his 2007 Contract in 2008 for a total of $15M in 2008.
But, accounding wise the Giants do not count any of this differed money against the salary budget. This money is accounted for like the debt service on the Ballpark is accounted for. If the Salary Budget for 2008 is $95M none of Barry’s (or anyone else’s) defered dollars count in this total.
Understanding this it is actually easy to see the Giants signing A-Rod next year to replace Barry Bonds. Here is how the math could work out.
Signed
Zito – $14.5M
Morris – $9.5M
Winn – $8M
Durham – $7.5M
Roberts – $6.5M
Molina – $6M
Aurilia – $4.5M
Lowry – $2.25M
Kline – $1.75M
Cain – $0.7M
Total – $61.2M
1st Year Arbitration
Correia – $0.6M
Chulk – $0.6M
Hennessey – $0.6M
Total – $1.8M
Pre-Arbitration
Lincecum – $0.4M
Messenger – $0.4M
Sanchez – $0.4M
Taschner – $0.4M
Alfonzo – $0.4M
Frandsen – $0.4M
Lewis – $0.4M
Schierholtz – $0.4M
Ortmeier – $0.4M
Velez – $0.4M
Horwitz – $0.4M
Total $4.4M
This above totals $67.4M and thus leaves up to $27.6M for the first year of an up to 8 year $240M Contract for A-Rod.
This team would clearly be as weak an offensive team as this year’s team and maybe even weaker. But, this is without any trading. If we say trade Morris and Kline to Seattle for Balentien or to Anaheim for Woods we would have another $10.45M to spend on another FA bat and we would have Balentien to displace Horwitz or Woods to displace Velez and Misch and Munter to dispace Morris and Kline on the roster. If we also trade Barry Bonds to Seattle for Adam Jones after Barry breaks the record this year then the rebuilt could be complete!
Basically a good comment, DonK. I think we have this for next year:
C – Molina
1b – likely platoon, Klesko/Aurilia
2b – Durham (unless traded, and I’m not opposed)
3b – open
ss – open
lf – Barry (he’s really ideal, plays 2/3 games, gvies prospects ABs, leads league, cost around $14 mil
cf,rf – semi open, maybe one of Roberts/Winn gets traded, likely not both. I would not be opposed to an OF of Bonds, Lewis, Schierholtz, Winn or Roberts (altho a RH bat would certainly be useful.
We’re not getting rid of all the guys we signed for multiple years. WE are just barely losing because 5 guys are radically underperfroming (Roberts, Feliz, Omar, Aurilia, Durham). WE will be without 2 or 3 of those guys next year and have to expect the ramining 2 or 3 (say, Roberts, Aurilia, Durham) had outlier years this year and return to career norms. This team is close. Significant upgrades to SS and 3b would put us in competition with the Padres, whose pitching is beginning to age.
McGowan, et al are not going into ’08 knowing ahead of time we are going to lose 90+ games. So, it is unlikely we are going to bring in some prospect to go all Niekro on us at 3b and ss. So, A-Rod has to be very tempting, but NY, when push comes to shove, will resign him. So you can talk about a plan, but given the constraints (not money, but of who we have and are likely to start the year with and what slots are open) the coming winter is not much different than this past winter – there aren’t very many options to significantly improve at 3b and SS, assuming you are not going to trade your pitching nucleus.
Bonds will be back next year. Bet on it, unless he decides to go elsewhere. As John accurately notes, there’s really nowhere for him to go. The Yankees and Red Sox have DHs, Oakland won’t sign him unless he’s willing to leave eight figures on the table and he doesn’t fit in Anaheim’s scheme of things.
However, if Magowan/Sabean plan to keep him, they’ve got to spend the money on a real hitter. Barry is swinging at pitches he’d never have swung at previously because he knows he won’t see a thing to hit — not with no one on base in front of hi, and no threat behind him. If they don’t, they might as well take Barry’s money and flush it into McCovey Cove.
That’s why it’s important to clear money now. Morris should bring a good prospect. One of Winn or Roberts needs to go – let Lewis and Nate S. play and see what they’ve got. Durham should be traded – let Frandsen play. Let Omar leave at the end of the season; his bat can no longer carry his glove on a team like this. Felix may be our best option at 3rd, but if he wants much more than the $5M he’s making this year, he’s got to go. His glove and occasional power can’t make up for another sub-.300 OBP. Pedro is so bad that I’d almost be tempted to give A-Rod the money (though I’d bet he stays in the AL) and see if I could bat him behind Barry. Might be really interesting — A-Rod has power and OBP.
Indeed, Sabean had better get some guys who can get on base. Despite having the planet’s leading receiver of bases on balls, the Giants are among the league dregs in OBP. It’s as if Sabean has read “Moneyball” and tried to go in the complete opposite direction — despite the philosophy’s evidence of success across the bay.
Sabean’s lineup is in the process of flushing a fine season by the pitching staff. With the All-Star game over and Barry’s 756th on the horizon, Sabean had better have a plan to remedy the Giants’ increasing irrelevance. And make no mistake, as July turns to August, the level of interest in the Giants drops to zero as soon as No. 756 lands.