.... Guest column

I asked and I shall receive. Aaron Gleeman, who runs Aaron's Blog, there on the left, posted a truly spectacular playoff preview, and I asked him if I could post it as a guest column, and he said yes!!! Hooray.

And now the moment you've all been waiting for...

Aaron Gleeman's 2002 Playoff Previews and Predictions:

.... Aaron's Baseball Blog

Aaron Gleeman has an absolutely terrific playoff preview in today's post. I have asked him if I could post it here as a guest column, and we'll see what he says. in the meantime, if you have the time, go here and see for yourself.

.... Unbelievable

.... Try with a little help from my friends

To all my readers and guest writers, see that Visit Blogster.net link below my counters? It would be a big help if you could click on that link and vote for Only Baseball Matters. The more of you that visit that site, the more new visitors they'll send to OBM. Thanks in advance.

.... Bakerman

Dusty has announced his rotation, and it is a bit different than I posted last week. He has decided to start with Ortiz and Rueter on the road for game one and two, and then finish with Schmidt and Hernandez at Pacbell for games three and four. Here are the home/away splits for the Giants four starters:

Ortiz

Home 5-4 3.41 ERA 8.6H/9IP

Away 9-6 3.77 ERA 8H/9IP

Rueter

Home 5-5 3.02 ERA 9H/9IP

Away 9-3 3.44 ERA 9H/9IP

Schmidt

Home 8-5 2.37 ERA 6H/9IP

Away 5-3 5.02 ERA 9H/9IP

Hernandez

Home 7-9 3.99 ERA 9H/9IP

Away 5-7 4.89 ERA 10H/9IP

So he has clearly built his rotation with their splits in mind, and it's probably the best setup he could have chosen. Some other home/away splits that bear watching:

Manny Aybar

Home 7 baserunners in 9 IP 1.00 ERA

Away 12 baserunners in 5.1 IP 5.06 ERA

Aaron Fultz

Home 26 baserunners in 18 IP 3.86 ERA

Away 42 baserunners in 25 IP 5.56 ERA

Felix Rodriguez

Home 42 baserunners in 35 IP 2.80 ERA

Away 40 baserunners in 33 IP 5.61 ERA

.... emails and details

Reader Ed Loots writes:

John, the MVP award is not "the best player in the league award." When I see people voting for A-Rod, I see people who wish to make their own rules, and "to hell" with the real rules. Tejada is the AL MVP because Oakland would not be where they are without him. Texas is where they are, in last place, despite A-Rod. And, they would be there without him, too. So, A-Rod is somewhat meaningless to the Rangers' fate. However, when they start voting for the best player in the AL, my vote would go to A-Rod, just like yours. But, if you play by the rules, MVP and the "best player" are two very different things.

Dear Voter:

There is no clear-cut definition of what Most Valuable means. It is up to the individual voter to decide who was the Most Valuable Player in each league to his team. The MVP need not come from a division winner or other playoff qualifier.

The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.

2. Number of games played.

3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.

4. Former winners are eligible.

5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

You are also urged to give serious consideration to all your selections, from 1 to 10. A 10th-place vote can influence the outcome of an election. You must fill in all 10 places on your ballot. Keep in mind that all players are eligible for MVP, and that includes pitchers and designated hitters. Only regular-season performances are to be taken into consideration.

.... Superman

The San Francisco Giants clinched a postseason berth with a tense 5-2 win over the Astros today. Barry Bonds hit his 46th home run of the season into McCovey Cove in the 5th inning to break a 2-2 tie and send San Francisco back to the postseason.



.... Superman, Part II

My votes (As if anyone cares) for the various regular season awards look like this:

NL MVP Barry Bonds. I have written about his dominance so many times I'm not gonna do it again. Anyone who votes for someone else should turn in their BBWAA card.

NL Cy Young Randy Johnson. His September, 6-0 with a 0.66 ERA separates him from teammate Curt Schilling.

AL MVP Alex Rodriguez. Miguel Tejada's had a great season, Rodriguez has had perhaps the greatest season in American League history, 57 home runs, 140 RBI, 123 runs scored, and maybe a Gold Glove at the toughest position in the game.

AL Cy Young Pedro Martinez. Too good, 'nuff said.

Tomorrow I'll do a playoff preview for the G-men.

.... It ain't over 'til it's over

As if the immortal Yogi Berra was talking about the 2002 National League. The Giants currently stand two games behind Arizona, and a game and a half behind St. Louis. So what? you say. So they could still not only win the division, they could host a first round playoff. If the Giants win their last two games and the D'backs and Cardinals lose their last two, the Giants would fly to Atlanta to play for the division title. If they were to win that game, they would host the Cardinals in the first round.

The pitching matchups for Saturday's games:

St. Louis has Chuck Finley 6-4, 3.97 ERA against Glendon Rusch 10-15, 4.68 ERA.

Arizona has Rick Helling 9-12, 4.51 ERA against Chris Vance 0-0, 18 ERA.

San Francisco has Kirk Rueter 13-8, 3.22 ERA against Kirk Saarloos 6-7, 5.96 ERA.

Sunday:

St. Louis has Andy Benes 5-4, 2.93 against Wes Franklin 2-1, 3.71.

Arizona has Jason Patterson 1-0, 3.16 against Denny Stark 11-3, 3.69.

San Francisco has Russ Ortiz 14-10, 3.61 against Roy Oswalt 19-8, 2.93.

That's a tough road to hoe, but anything's possible in the NL this year.

.... Musings

David Pinto has a Bill James win shares for 2002 posted here. Barry Bonds is so far above everyone else it's laughable, he's at 48.1 wins shares, number two in the NL is Berkman with 35.5. Berkman is closer to the number 25 guy than he is to Bonds.

.... The Cub Reporter

Christian Ruzich, The Cub Reporter, special to Only Baseball Matters

While John is busy writing about what the Giants need to do this year in order to win the World Series, I'm going to focus on what they need to do in the off-season in order to get ready for next year. As a life-long Cubs fan, it's an activity that comes naturally to me; I've been thinking about the 2003 season since about mid-May.

Now, the Giants, of course, are not the Cubs, and there are thousands of Giants fans all over the Bay Area and beyond who are thankful for that... Every. Day. Of. Their. Lives. But even as they find themselves on the doorstep of the 2002 playoffs, there are some issues which will need to be addressed if they want to return to the post-season next year. In general, I'd like to stick to what is more-or-less possible, instead of the more blue-sky stuff: "resign Kent, then trade Snow for Helton, then sign Maddux as a free agent!"

Speaking of Snow, as a loyal reader of Only Baseball Matters, I'm sure you're aware of just how much he's hurting the team. John has very eloquently and persuasively shown that JT is an offensive liability, and only some strange sense of loyalty by Dusty Baker is keeping him in the lineup. Unfortunately, the Giants are still on the hook to him to the tune of almost $7M, which means he's nigh impossible to trade, and they're not about to just cut him loose. If they had a bona-fide prospect waiting in the wings, I imagine it would be harder for Dusty to not play him, but they really don't. Damon Minor might be a decent major league first sacker, but he's certainly not a can't-miss guy. And the Giants are somewhat restrained in their budget due to the debt on Pac Bell Park, so I don't they'll be in the market to sign a guy like Jim Thome.

The ideal first base candidate is currently on the roster: Jeff Kent. Kent has always been a barely adequate defensive second baseman who makes up for his lack of speed with smart positioning and a quick release. This year, though, he's struggled in the field, and now might be the time to approach him about moving to first base. Assuming he's at all interested in re-signing (which is a big if), that's the position he should be at in 2003. If he's not interested in moving, the Giants shouldn't be interested in re-signing him -- take half of the money he would command and sign someone like Lee Stevens or Todd Zeile as a stop-gap while Damon Minor learns to hit left-handed pitching. That way Snow sticks around purely as a defensive replacement, a role in which he would excel.

This would open up second base for Ramon Martinez, a guy who could probably start at short or second for any number of major league teams. Martinez is no longer a prospect -- he turns 30 in the off-season -- but he's a guy with a decent arm, good range, and a bat that doesn't disappoint: he has a career .334 OBP and though his numbers dropped in 2001 when he played a lot of 3B, I think he deserves a shot to play every day.

The left side of the infield is set -- regression to the mean would suggest that Rich Aurilia will improve next year, not to his 2001 level, but closer to his career OBM TC numbers .280/.330/.450, while David Bell has been a solid player and an improvement over Bill Mueller. His power numbers suggest that perhaps he shouldn't be stuck down in the 8 spot, although I can understand Dusty wanting to put a better hitter there so that opposing pitchers will not be as tempted to groove a pitch to the #8 guy in order to get to the pitcher. Aurilia is signed through '03, while Bell has a $3.5M option that should certainly be picked up.

Two thirds of the outfield is a mess. I think this is where the Giants should look to the free agent pool or try to make a trade with whatever meager scraps are left in the minor-league system. Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, and Tom Goodwin are all free agents, and unless Lofton and/or Sanders are willing to sign for a decrease, I don't think the Giants should make too much of an effort to sign either one. Marvin Benard is, unfortunately, owed $4M next year, but that doesn't mean he should be in the starting lineup. Let him sit on the bench and act as the first lefty off the bench while he watches someone else patrol the outfield. Who, you ask? Well, someone like Steve Finley (who the Giants should have signed when he was available 4 years ago) may be on the market, and he is just the right age for the Giants. A few younger options who might work out include Todd Hollandsworth and Alex Ochoa, both of whom come with their own set of problems, but should be available for not too much money and will not be liabilities at the plate.

Behind the plate, Benito Santiago can't possibly do what he's been doing for another year, can he? He's under contract for one more year, and if he can catch 120 games again and hit .280 while he teaches Yorvit Torrealba how to catch, that would be just great.

On the mound, Schmidt, Ortiz and Rueter form a credible 1-2-3 punch, with Ryan Jensen as a work in progress in the #4 slot. While Livan Hernandez will still be around (unless Sabean can somehow move him and his $3.5M contract), Kurt Ainsworth and possibly Joe Nathan should be around in the spring to challenge him for the #5 spot in the rotation. In the bullpen, Todd Worrell's option should be picked up, and if Jason Christiansen can come back from injury, the Giants would be set with Worrell & Rodriguez from the right side and Christiansen from the left to get to Nen. Guys like Scott Eyre, Jay Witasick, Aaron Fultz and Manny Aybar are eminently replaceable -- if they want to stick around, that's great, but no significant effort or money should be spent making sure they return.

At the beginning of this season, I was worried that 2002 might be the last gasp of a rapidly aging team. Looking more closely, though, I don't think the situation is so dire. The only difficult issue is re-signing Kent, and assuming that could be done, I envision a line-up along the lines of:

1. Lofton CF

2. Aurilia SS

3. Bonds LF

4. Kent 1B

5. Hollandsworth RF

6. Santiago C

7. Bell 3B

8. Martinez 2B

That wouldn't be so bad, would it?

.... I'll try not to pull a muscle patting myself on the back

In this post a couple of days ago, with no inside information or anything, I correctly predicted three-fourths of the likely Giants playoff rotation. More importantly, I accurately ascertained that Dusty had to make sure Livan pitched at home. Not too shabby, eh?

.... Superman, infinity

I called in to the Rick Barry show on KNBR 680, the Sports Leader, earlier this week, I think it was Tuesday, and I got on the air with him to talk about how Barry Bonds is such an unappreciated superstar. I believe I referenced Neo from the Matrix at one point. Anywho, I found this article by Rick, published about a month ago, and not surprisingly, he and I are in complete agreement.

.... emails and details

Regular contributor Eric Chabot corrects my inaccurate explanation of the schedule for the makeup game:

Been a while since I've written, but been reading the site regularly. Two quick things ...

(1) You refer to the potential makeup game with Atlanta as being on Sunday in your post today, but the game would obviously be Monday. And you're right, they definitely wouldn't see Maddux, and maybe not even Moss.

(2) What are your thoughts about MLB potentially "forcing" the Giants to play the makeup game Monday if the NL West is on the line? This is obviously a huge longshot since I think Arizona will win two this weekend, but the explanation from MLB was just lame (from SF Chron today):

"We want to protect the integrity of the season," said Katy Feeney, baseball's vice president of scheduling and club relations. "We want all teams to play all their games to get into the playoffs. We want 162 games to be played and have won-loss records that make sense."

That statement is false on so many levels ... Atlanta just had a rainout with Pittsburgh cancelled last night, as a matter of fact, so they'll only be playing 161 games. And every year a team or two plays less than 162 for the same reason. Anyway, if I'm the Giants I think I'd rather have the day to get ready for Atlanta as opposed to travelling from San Francisco to Atlanta on Sunday, playing Monday and then potentially travelling to St. Louis to play at noon on Tuesday. Not worth it for the small possibility of hosting Arizona in a division series, if you ask me.



(And that doesn't even get into the "who would you rather play?" debate, of which I vote for the Braves over the Cardinals).

If the Giants finish their regular schedule Sunday a half-game behind Arizona for the NL West title, they must play the makeup game in Atlanta on Monday, the commissioner's office ruled Thursday.

.... Rotate once

Playoff rotations have been announced, ESPN reports today.

The Giants vs. the Braves will look like this:

Game 1 in Atlanta: Russ Ortiz (if he doesn't have to pitch Sunday) vs. Greg Maddux

Game 2 in Atlanta: Jason Schmidt vs. Tom Glavine

Game 3 in San Francisco: Kirk Rueter vs. Kevin Millwood

Game 4 in San Francisco: Livan Hernandez vs. Maddux/Damian Moss (if neccessary)

Game 5 in Atlanta: Ortiz vs. Maddux/Glavine (if neccessary)

Obviously if the Giants need to win the makeup game on Sunday, the whole rotation shifts. You can bet they won't be facing Maddux on Sunday, in fact, they'll probably see Moss again. They've already seen him twice, here's how he's done:

	Result	IP	H	ER
May 14th	L 2-0	7.0	7	2
Aug 15th	T 3-3	8.0	4	3

That's pretty good, if they have to win that game, it won't be easy, and it'll disrupt their playoff rotation, although as long as Hernandez pitches at PacBell they should be OK. As you can see, Moss was the starter in the tie game that they may need to replay, that's kind of interesting, isn't it? He was all set to take the loss too, if Nen hadn't blown the win for Jason Schmidt, giving up a two-out, two-strike, two-run single to Chipper Jones.

.... Something to think about

What makes a good hitter? What makes a great hitter? How do we measure that ability? For as long as I've been a fan, batting average has been the simplest and easiest to understand baseball stat. What percentage of the time does a player get a hit? And getting a hit has long been assumed to be the hitters job, (no pun intended). Over the last couple of decades, baseball sabermeticians and analysts have deepened our understanding of how teams are or aren''t successful, and today, it is widely accepted that it is more accurate to say that a hitters job is to score runs, and that hitting is how he does his job. It's kind of like saying that a plumbers job is to make water come out of your faucet, and installing pipe is how he does it. One is a means to the others end.

Back to batting average. Because of its easy to understand format, it remains the single most discussed aspect of a hitters ability, particularly when you watch or listen to a game. It is the first stat shown in a statistic line, and a batting title is considered extremely important, an honor, if you will. Why is that? I think it's because baseball players, and maybe more importantly, the ex-ball players who make up many of the voices we listen to while watching the games understand that measuring a hitters ability to just get hits is important. Hitting a pitched ball safely is an important, if not the most important skill a baseball player has to develop. If a player cannot master this basic aspect of hitting skill, all of his other abilities are diminished accordingly. A great power hitter is less effective if he hits .235, right? Even Rickey Henderson is much less effective hitting .220 than .290, regardless of how many walks he gets.

Perhaps the deepening of our awareness of the complexities of a teams offense has brought us to this point, where writers say things like, "I hate batting average." or some other such nonsense. You can rest asssured that any player who has won a batting title has been an excellent hitter, an outstanding offensive contributor. Some more than others, but even a singles hitter like a Rod Carew has been an extremely effective creator of runs. Of course, when you add in excellent plate discipline, Rod Carew becomes Wade Boggs. Then you have a player who starts to become an unavoidable problem for the opposition. Combining the ability to put the ball in play safely and consistently with the ability to recognize and avoid pitches that are not in a hitters zone of effectiveness marks the first level of true superstars. While Rod Carew was recognized as a great player during his time, Wade Boggs was being compared to the all-time greats by the end of his third year in the majors.

Perhaps it was during Boggs' career that the work of Bill James found its first wide audience. Because Wade Boggs was accomplishing things that hadn't been accomplished since the days of Ruth and Gehrig, Bill James had a platform of authentication to present his new and more polished attempts at understanding offense. When you say that this player is a historic-level hitter, and you say he is doing something that hasn't been done since these immortals did it, well, that's a good way to start an argument, wouldn't you say? I would. It worked too. I first learned about Bill James during the mid 1980's, right about the time Don Mattingly and Wade Boggs were battling it out for batting titles. And Bill was the first writer who could argue that Boggs was better than Mattingly and not sound like an idiot, no easy chore, believe me. I thought that the edge Mattingly had in power compensated for his unwillingness to take a base on balls. Bill James was able to explain how the cost of his power advantage, outs, put Donnie Baseball at a distinct disadvantage. Those outs were at bats taken from teammates, the hidden cost of not developing a truly outstanding level of plate discipline.

The difference between Mattingly and Boggs highlights the final component of the truly great hitters, power. If you can combine the art of hitting the ball safely with the discipline of ignoring bad pitches, perhaps, not unlike a Wade Boggs or a Tony Gwynn, you are only able to do so by minimizing your swing power, by building a controlled, efficient swing. Both Gwynn and Boggs talked all the time about not overswinging, about controlling the strike zone, not getting unbalanced. Both sacrificed power for average, both spoke about it and acknowledged they were doing it. Mattingly sacrificed walks for power and production, or RBI's. All three of these hitters are excluded from the pantheon of all-time greatest hitters because of these sacrifices, because that open acknowledgement was an admission of failure, an admission that they couldn't combine all three elements and still maintain the same level of excellence in all of them. In fact, Ted Williams constantly chided both Boggs and Gwynn for not being more aggressive, for not doing more to accentuate their power swings, as I'm sure he must have mentioned to Mattingly that taking a walk every once in a while wasn't the worst thing in the world.

The hitters who are included in the argument for greatest of all time are men who mastered all three of these aspects. They are men who have dominated baseball history, who've established the standards of excellence in each area, and in all three areas. Their names are part of baseball history, and they are the immortals. Hornsby, Ruth, Williams, Musial, Cobb, these are the men who have defined excellence, and their statistical records are memorized and repeated and compared and catalogued, over and over. Many spectacular talents have failed to dominate in all three of these areas, including Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Duke Snider, Hank Aaron. These players were dominate in two areas, but only good or even, if we can put it this way, only great in one of these skills. Willie Mays and Stan Musial dominated the National League for over a decade, trading batting titles, slugging crowns and on-base marks.

With three games left in the regular season, Barry Bonds is about to join the roster of superstars who have put together some of the very best seasons of all time. Recently, many national media outlets have published stories about Barry reaching some milestone or another, the first hitter since Ruth to reach base 350 times, the highest batting average with 40 home runs since Ruth (My apologies to Larry Walker and Todd Helton, but the Coors effect removes them from these conversations. They are great hitters, but not all-time great). At Only Baseball Matters, we are poised to recognize Barry Bonds as the first man to lead all of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging since George Brett in 1980, the 2002 Only Baseball Matters Triple Crown.

Barry has just missed winning an OBM TC several times before in his career, but not this year. Hitting against the Ted Williams shift, often with the second baseman in short right field, against teams whose entire defensive strategy is designed to neutralize him, walk him, anything but pitch to him, Barry Bonds is on his way to perhaps the greatest offensive performance in the history of baseball. Coming on the heels of his historic, record-shattering 73 home run, .863 slugging percentage season of 2001, with the entire league gearing up to stop him, with his team in a desperate race for the postseason; his accomplishments this year are simply staggering. He is about to complete a two year run of domination the likes of which hasn't been seen in 80 years, perhaps never. You can rest assured, you will never see someone dominate the league like this again, not in your lifetime, not in your children's lifetime, nor their children's.

Baseball fans, enjoy this while it lasts. One day, you and I will tell our kids that we saw Barry Bonds, the greatest baseball player of all time.

.... Odds and ends

How much credibility do I sacrifice if I write good things about the Giants now that the postseason seems inevitable? I don't know, but if I'm gonna write, I'm gonna write what I want, right? All of this is contingent on the Giants making the playoffs. If they fold, I look like an idiot. Nevertheless, carry on....

The Giants have the best offense in the National League, of course led by Superman, aka Barry Bonds. If you just look at their away stats, they are blowing the rest of the league away, playing at PacBell makes the whole team look much worse than they really are.

Their team OBM TC away stats are awesome, .273/.350/.471, with an .820 OPS. No other team has an OPS above .800. They have hit 126 home runs on the road, the Cubs are second with 101. They've scored 426 runs, the Dodgers are second with 399.

In September, the Giants have scored 114 runs in 23 games, fourth in the NL behind the Cards with 135, and the Rockies and Mets. The NL playoff qualifiers September OBM TC stats:

Giants .276/.366/.430 with a .796 OPS and 24 home runs

Cards .287/.356/.467 with an .823 OPS and 33 home runs

D'backs .253/.335/.398 with a .733 OPS and 20 home runs

Braves .262/.337/.431 with a .768 OPS and 27 home runs

Pitching stats for September:

Giants 78 runs allowed, 3.03 ERA

Cards 78 runs allowed, 3.10 ERA

Braves 84 runs allowed, 3.83 ERA

D'backs 128 runs allowed, 5.12 ERA

Let's look at how the Giants offense matches up against the three other playoff teams:

Against Atlanta .241/.318/.388 a .706 OPS with 6 home runs in 7 games

Against St. Louis .251/.324/.382 a .706 OPS with 6 home runs in 6 games

Against Arizona .244/.326/.402 a .728 OPS with 21 home runs in 19 games

Here's how these three teams have fared against the Giants:

Atlanta .237/.318/.331 a .649 OPS with 3 home runs in 7 games

St. Louis .270/.343/.386 a .729 OPS with 4 home runs in 6 games

Arizona .247/.332/.319 a .652 OPS with 6 home runs in 19 games

Well, these raw numbers appear to favor the Giants a little, although the Cards have a pretty decent OPS off the Giants staff. The Giants sure hit a lot more home runs than they give up though, don't they?

.... At the Ballpark

Our good friend Chris Hartjes has a terrific piece on what's needed to win in the postseason. Read and learn.

.... Tsunami

The surging Giants continued their march towards baseball immortality last night, with a 6-0 pasting of the San Diego Padres. Livan Hernandez matched his career-best by allowing just two hits in a complete game shutout, his third of the season, and fifth of his career. (Side note, I've now been in attendance for three of them.... weird) If they manage to pass the D'backs, they'll have out done even the historic 1978 Yankees (only 7 1/2 out on August 24th) by picking up twelve games on a team in thirty-four games! The Giants were 11 1/2 games out as late as August 24th, they've gone 22-8 over their last thirty games while the D'backs have gone 12-19. Ouch. By the way, the Yankees went 30-9 from August 24th on, while the Red Sox ran out a 21-17 pennant drive.

.... Snow job? I don't think so

Reggie Sanders and JT Snow seem determined to rebut this writers recent negative comments about their inability to generate any offense, Benito Santiago is looking like he found a fountain of youth.... this team is peaking at exactly the right time. Meanwhile, the D'backs are staggering. Curt Schilling lost for the third time in his last five starts, 6-1 to the St. Louis Cardinals; allowing all six runs on a pair of first-pitch fastball three-run home runs. Suddenly, the Giants are only two games back, with four games to play. But remember that horrible, rained out tie game in Atlanta? The Giants play that makeup game if they are a half game ahead or behind the Dodgers, and they can choose to play it if they are a half game behind the D'backs. Why the difference? Because if they are a half game behind the D'backs, they could win the division by winning the makeup game; if they want, they can decline and accept the wild card, a likely scenario because of the brutal schedule that makeup game would create. They won't decide a playoff qualifier on tie-breakers, so if the Giants are a half game either way with the Dodgers, they have to play the makeup game, although with a three game lead and four to play, it's looking like their only real issue is whether they can catch the D'backs.

By the way, the Giants open on the road in the first round no matter what. They only team they would have home field against would be the D'backs if they catch them, and they wouldn't face them until the second round.

.... Superman, et al

Alan Schwarz, in a special to ESPN, has a terrific, if highly techincal article on ESPN.com today in which he introuduces Harvard statistics Professor Carl Morris' brand new runs created formula that, among other things, derives the exact number of runs a team of nine Barry Bonds would score. I like it, and will figure out how to build an excel sheet to run guys in and out. In the meantime, Professor Morris' piece is just one more way of saying that Barry is from Jupiter.

.... emails and details

Reader Aaron Loomis asks:

John, what do you take from Livan's performance last night? Did he just not care through the middle of the season and not give as much effort and decide to turn it on at the end? I can see something happening from this that can turn out to be disasterous. Dusty is going to take this performance and let Livan pitch in one of the first 3 games of the playoffs and Livan is going to stink it up.

On a sidenote, I'm a little surprised on the quick turnaround of your stance on Dusty. It was almost overnight that you went from carrying his bags to the airport so that he could get out of here as fast as possible to now lobbying for him to stay.

.... Keep on continuous

The Giants won again, and the Dodgers lost a heart-breaker that may turn out to be the proverbial straw that broke the camels back. I was at PacBell last night, and I must say, the team looked awesome. They came out with a swagger and an edge I haven't seen in them since 2000. They looked like they were gonna destroy the Padres, come hell or high water, and that's just what they did. Terrific all around performance, the team is peaking at exactly the right time, and with all of the injuries to the D'backs and the recent stumblings by the Braves, well, anything can happen.

.... Stark contrast

Jayson Stark gives us not one, but two Useless Information columns today. Both are awesome, with lots and lots of amazing but true Barry Bonds stuff. In the second, he writes about Livan's efforts at immortality.

Worst to first. While we're on the subject of pitchers who lead their league in losses, Giants "ace" Livan Hernandez has a shot at one of the most impossible feats of the century. He went into the last week tied with Milwaukee's Ben Sheets for the league lead in losses. But at least Sheets' team has lost 100 games. Hernandez's team is probably going to the playoffs. We took a trip through Total Baseball to determine that no pitcher has ever led his league in losses for a team that made it to the postseason. So for Livan Hernandez, this week is dramatic in more ways than one.

.... Sad Sox

In this post, David Pinto suggests the Boston Red Sox, perennial disappointments that they are, might need a Paul O'Neil-type of player, or maybe they should consider him as a manager. I think that's a pretty good idea, actually, although knowing what a perfectionist Paulie is, he'd probably want to be a hitting instructor or bench coach for a couple of years before taking the reins.

.... In the news

In today's San Jose Mercury News, Reggie Sanders is quoted as saying his swing is starting to come around. I sure hope so, because he couldn't be more of an offensive liability right now. It's bad enough that JT the Outman has left about six hundred men on base the last month, but lately Reggie's been working hard to catch him.

In other news, the Arizona Diamondbacks are starting to resemble a Mash unit, with a different player getting hurt daily. They've lost Brian Anderson for the season, Craig Counsell is hurt again, Matt Williams is too, and now Luis Gonzalez separated his shoulder as D'backs lost their fourth game in a row. They are really staggering to the finish line, with only a four game lead over the Giants now, and they're playing a Cardinal team that would love to take home field away from them. Brenly had thought about resting Schilling and Johnson, but if he wants that home field, he won't be able to.

.... Storm tide

Talk about a surging tide, take a look at the standings in the NL West on August 24th and now:

	8/24	9/24	Surge
D'backs	82-47	94-62	12-17
Dodgers	75-54	88-68	13-14
Giants	70-58	90-66	20-8

The Giants were eleven and a half games out of first a month ago, and they were four and a half games behind the Dodgers for the wild card. That's a pretty impressive push right there, made even more effective by the Giants going 5 and 2 against both the Dodgers and the D'backs over these last thirty days.

.... Then and now, Part II

Since we're in the last week of the season, now's a great time to take one last look at my attempt at predicting the final results of the NL West showdown between the Dodgers and the Giants. My last update was about three weeks ago, I'll update the Now and the Revision to show a third incarnation:

	Then	Now	Pred	Rev.3
Giants	62-50	90-66	92-70	94-68
Dodgers	62-51	88-68	88-74	91-71

On September 11th, I wrote that the Giants hot streak had begun to level out some of their poor Pythagorean performance, while the Dodgers recent losing streak had done the exact opposite, slowly bringing them back to their expected winning percentage. The Giants have sustained that surge, while the Dodgers have actually held steady, just off the pace. When I first put this post together, it was in late July, and the Giants had just started to get healthy after that horrible stretch in which every member of their starting outfield was injured. It took them a while, but they've gone 28 and 16 (.626 winning %, and don't forget that tie in Atlanta) since then, while the Dodgers have been just slightly worse, at 26 and 17 (.604). It's just enough to put them in a real tough spot.

I'd say the expected wins theorem has worked pretty well, wouldn't you? By the way, if the every team had gone the whole year winning at their expected rate, there'd be a hell of race for the NL West, with a half game separating the D'backs and the G-men, and another half game between the D'backs and the Braves for home field advantage.

I'd also say that, given the closeness of these three teams expected winning percentages, there's no telling who will advance to the World Series from the National League. In fact, that's true in both leagues. Nobody should be a prohibitive favorite to win the Series this year.

Thanks again to Bill James and ESPN for their expanded stats page, with conveniently located Pythagorean expected winning percentages.

.... Keep it continuous

Dan Lewis, there on the left, has a great piece villifying Peter Gammons for his incorrect, foolish piece on "competitive imbalance." Need I mention that he agrees with moi?

.... Superman, Part II

.... Pain in the ass

I have finally had to hard-link all of my archives, after Blogger Pro, Blog*Spot, Pyra, and all of the support guys at Blog have ignored me for over a week. Can I just mention what a stick in the eye it is to be ignored after I have paid cash, up front, to have a professional blog control panel. I couldn't be more pissed off right now.

Anyway, any new guys, please read my older stuff if you have a second, get you up to speed.

.... Out in left field

Peter Gammons, continuing in his inexplicable role as Seligula's shill, writes that...

When the season ends next Sunday, eleven teams likely will have won 90 games, which tells you that that plateau ain't what it used to be and may say more about the dozen teams that are more than 12-games under .500. The Expos crept two games over .500 by beating the Mets in Shea Friday night and the White Sox have fought their way back to .500, but in the final days, if both teams do fall below .500, then there will be 12-winning teams, 18-losing teams, 11 90-game winners, as many as nine 90-game losers, as many as four 100-game losers and a dozen teams at least a dozen games under .500.That's what they mean by competitive imbalance.

.... emails and details

New reader Ed Loots asks if any team has ever made the playoffs with their top winner having only 12 wins. While I do the research, it's interesting to note that Kirk Rueter is 12-8, but the Giants are 11-0 in his no-decisions... Thanks to today's San Jose Mercury article on yesterday's 3-1 win over the Brewers.

Meanwhile, the Giants get a day off after a 40 games in 41 days stretch. The team went 25-14-1 over that span, and are now in control of their future with a two game lead over the Dodgers, and five games at home to finish out the season. Win 'em all and it's on to Atlanta for the first round of the playoffs.

.... Keep on continuous

The Giants managed to win 5-1 without very much offense from Superman last night, and the Dodgers were pasted by the Padres, 8 to 4, increasing the G-men's Wild Card lead to two games. Rich Aurilia had a home run and a couple of RBI, and Ryan Jensen won for the first time in six weeks.

He looked shaky early, but was able to overcome the woeful Brewers to run his record to 12 and 8. Not too bad for a rookie, even if he is 27 years old. Looking ahead, if the Giants can sweep the Brew Crew, they would put a lot of pressure on LA.

Peter Magowan is quoted on the Giants clubhouse page as saying that he definitely wants Brian Sabean back next season. Next up would be Sabean saying he wants Dusty back, and then everyone agreeing with Bonds that Kent has to be re-signed as well.

By the way, that game last night was pretty blase' compared to those awesome Dodgers matchups.

.... Superman

.417/.614/.848, with a 1.462 OPS

.526/.735/.789, with a 1.524 OPS

.... Ouch

A couple of things here... First, I should have gone on the record yesterday with my feelings about Livan having no chance whatsoever against the Dodgers. The way they were taking pitches, hitter after hitter, patiently waiting for something good to swing at, I mean, really, he had no chance at all. His numbers, by the way, are simply staggeringly bad. You take Mike Hampton out of the picture, and Livan is in a class all by himself. As I've said before, it's not a matter of if he'll give up a bunch of hits, it's a matter of when.

He's done a real good job of derailing the team all year, and last night was no different, essentially ending the game in the third inning, something he's done over and over. I was going to do a home away piece here, figuring that he was going to show me a big ERA and H/9 split, but actually, he's been so bad at PacBell that there is only a small difference. Here, you take a look:

Home 6 wins, 9 losses, 115 IP, 167 baserunners 4.30 ERA

Away 5 wins, 7 losses, 92 IP, 134 baserunners 4.89 ERA

Opponents OBM TC numbers: .290/.342/.430

PacBell is only helping him a little, I would think that that would be pretty unusual, that the Giants should be getting a lot of help at home. It doesn't show up for everybody though.

Kirk Rueter has a 3.61 ERA on the road and a 2.99 at home, 17 % better.

Russ Ortiz has a 3.77 ERA on the road and a 3.36 at home, 11% better.

Jason Schmidt has a 5.40 ERA on the road and a 2.46 at home, that's less than half!

Ryan Jensen has a 5.55 ERA on the road and a 3.89 at home, 30% better.

As a team, the split is more substantial...

The team home ERA is 3.15

The team away ERA is 4.22

That's a 25% improvement, and Livan is only getting about half of that. If he were getting all of it, his home ERA should be around 3.66. What it really means is that any way you slice it, his season has been a disaster. If you take out his 4 and 0 start, he's 7 and 16 in his last twenty-eight starts, that's simply awful.

PS.... with Jensen's road ERA so high, tonight is no guaranteed win against the Brewers, especially with the Giants having to fly all night after that exhausting four game series with Dodgers. I guess the fact that last night was a blowout might help them a little, as they weren't involved in another tension-filled four hour war.

.... The good guys

I've had a lot to say about the Giants who have played poorly these last few weeks, especially the hitters. I thought I would take a moment to write about the guys who've been instrumental in driving the team towards the postseason. Here's the five everyday players who have been really doing their jobs over the last thirty days, with their OBM TC stats, as well as some other numbers:

Bonds .427/.622/.878

7 2B 10 HR 29 RBI 41 BB 5 SO 4 steals

Kent .279/.347/.577

9 HR 19 RBI

Bell .280/.364/.419

7 XBH 13 RBI

Aurilia .266/.341/.385

8 XBH 17 RBI

Lofton .272/.348/.369

39 times on base 5 steals 15 runs

There you go. These are the guys who've been carrying the team lately. Let's go Giants.

PS..... would you look at Bonds!?!? That's a 1.500 OPS for a month!!!

.... War

War. That's what these last three games have been, a war. These have been just about the best regular season baseball games I have ever seen. Every pitch, every at bat, every inning has felt like the ninth inning of a game seven. Great great stuff.

The Giants won again last night, a 7-4 final score that was closer than that. After a couple of walks and a hit, the Dodgers had the tying run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth, but Rob Nen was able to make some terrific pitches to get the final two outs.

Russ Ortiz was the star of the game, not only pitching well, but hitting a tie-breaking home run in the top of the fifth inning to give the Giants a lead they would never relinquish.

After the team lost the first game of this series in such heart-rending, gut-wrenching fashion, I told a friend that I thought that the season was at stake in thes